Archive for the ‘Zombieland’ Category

Weekend Preview: Will Where The Wild Things Are Be The Blockbuster Everyone’s Hoping It Will Be?

October 16, 2009

Okay guys, there have been a couple requests for a traditional Weekend Preview, so this week I decided to do one.  The video above is asking for some feedback on which format you like the best, so please chime in with your opinion in the comments!  This week, three new films hit theaters, but based on buzz,  it almost seems like there’s just one new release.  On the docket we have the very low profile Law-Abiding Citizen and The Stepfather, and the very high profile Where The Wild Things Are.  Keep reading to see my predictions of how each of these movies will perform this weekend.

Where The Wild Things Are – 3,735 theaters – $31.5 million

1. Sorry popular media, but I still say this Warner Brothers movie is too hipster and weird to be a huge mainstream success. 
2. Between the built in fans of the book, the strong advertising campaign, and the ultra-wide release into 3,735 theaters, a solid opening weekend is guaranteed.
3. Reviews are fairly good, but that’s from snobby critics who actually appreciate artistic themes and dour characters (think Donnie Darko).  This film will have masses of teenage fans who say it is the best piece of art they have ever seen, but for the common middle American family, I’m not so sure this plotless dreamscape will be beloved.

Law Abiding Citizen – 2,889 theaters – $9.5 million
1. This film stars Jamie Foxx and Gerard Butler, two movie stars who aren’t exactly box office draws.
2. Unlike the above release, I have seen almost no advertising for this drama, which is about a tyrannical prisoner and a harsh district attorney.
3. The wide release will garner at least some attention, but abysmal reviews will keep the target audience of this (adults) away.

The Stepfather – 2,734 theaters – $6 million

1. I feel like some Screen Gems producers were sitting in a room and said, “Hey, lets make a cheap horror remake and just throw a good looking Gossip Girl star in it!  It’s almost no work on our part!”
2. Unfortunately for the above producers, these poorly reviewed, cheap retreads only do well when supported by a major advertising campaign, which this has not had.
3. The good news for Screen Gems is that I’m sure this movie was inexpensive to make, so even if it fails financially, I’m sure it was a small investment.

Paranormal Activity – 760 theaters – $17 million

1. The little horror film that could expands into 600 more theaters this weekend, and I’d expect a full wide release from Paramount next weekend.
2. Because of the expansion, the blazing $49,000 per theater average of last week is going to come down a bit, but a $21,000 average would still give this an amazing $17 million for the weekend.
3. Based on Paranormal Activity‘s shockingly effective “Demand It” campaign, I’d expect a slew of films to begin trying to use Eventful to make their movies break out.  This seems like a rather unique case, though, and I don’t expect lightning to strike twice.

Among holdovers, Couples Retreat, since it is a widely accessible comedy, should see a friendly second weekend drop of about 45% to $18 million. Zombieland and Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs should keep riding the wave of fantastic word-of-mouth to small drops of 40% and 30%, respectively. My full predictions are below:

Box Office Predictions for October 16-18, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 Where The Wild Things Are 3,735 $31.5 million
2 Couples Retreat 3,009 $18 million
3 Paranormal Activity 760 $17 million
4 Law Abiding Citizen 2,889 $9.5 million
5 Zombieland 3,171 $9 million
6 Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 3,037 $8 million
7 The Stepfather 2,734 $7 million
8 Toy Story / Toy Story 2 (3D) 1,467 $5 million
9 Surrogates 2,326 $2.7 million
10 The Invention Of Lying 1,624 $2 million

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Weekend Fix: Couples Retreat Validates The EEE Once Again!

October 11, 2009

Friday Estimates: Couples Retreat Starts Off Strong; Paranormal Activity DOMINATES!

October 10, 2009

Friday numbers are in, and they speak for themselves. Couples Retreat had a great first Friday, with $12.3 million, but the real story of the weekend is Paranormal Activity, which managed to gross $2.5 million out of just 159 theaters! The numbers follow:

Friday Estimates For October 9, 2009
1. Couples Retreat – $12.3 million
2. Zombieland – $4.8 million
3. Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs – $3.1 million
4. Paranormal Activity – $2.5 million
5. Toy Story / Toy Story 2 (3D) – $2 million
6. Surrogates – $1.3 million
7. The Invention Of Lying – $1.1 million
8. Whip It – $890,000
9. Fame – $780,000
10. Capitalism: A Love Story – $760,000
11. The Informant! – $660,000
12. Love Happens – $474,000

Weekend Preview: Couples Retreat? Couples, Retreat!

October 9, 2009

My computer just got fixed!  Blogging can now resume as regularly scheduled.  First on the docket?  A Weekend Preview video of course!  There’s only one new release this weekend, and that’s Universal’s Couples Retreat, and it should do pretty well at the box office.  Considering its only competition is a an animated kids movie (Cloudy) and a zombie flick (Zombieland), I’m thinking Couples Retreat can find a pretty solid $23 million weekend.  Go ahead and watch the video, and then click inside to see my full box office predictions.

By the way, that good article about Paranormal Activity I was talking about is here.

Box Office Predictions for October 9-11, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 Couples Retreat 3,000 $23 million
2 Zombieland 3,038 $15 million
3 Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 2,992 $11 million
4 Toy Story / Toy Story (3D) 1,752 $7 million
5 Surrogates 2,992 $4.1 million
6 The Invention Of Lying 1,743 $4.1 million
7 Capitalism: A Love Story 995 $3.5 million
8 Whip It 1,738 $3.3 million
9 Fame 3,110 $2.3 million
10 The Informant! 2,202 $2.2 million
11 Love Happens 1,895 $1.9 million
12 Paranormal Activity 159 $1.8 million