Archive for the ‘This Is It’ Category

Weekend Preview: 2012 Hopes To To Blow Up (Literally And Figuratively)

November 13, 2009

Welcome to the Weekend Preview!  This week, there’s just two new wide releases, and only one of them is a true wide release.  Sony’s 2012 should be huge, as should Precious (due to its expansion) while Focus’ Pirate Radio should be small.  How big and how small?  Watch the video above to find out, and then check out my full predictions below, which include last week’s openers: A Christmas Carol, which should see a small drop this weekend and every weekend until Christmas, The Men Who Stare At Goats, and The Fourth Kind.  I’m guessing The Box will fall out of the top ten.  Check them out:

Box Office Predictions for November 13-15, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 2012 3,404 $57 million
2 A Christmas Carol 3,683 $19 million
3 This Is It 3,037 $8 million
4 The Men Who Stare At Goats 2,453 $6.5 million
5 The Fourth Kind 2,530 $5.5 million
6 Precious 174 $5 million
7 Paranormal Activity 2,712 $4.2 million
8 Couples Retreat 2,507 $4.1 million
9 Pirate Radio 882 $4 million
10 Law Abiding Citizen 2,071 $3.8 million

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Weekend Fix: Christmas Comes Early This Year! Or Does It?

November 9, 2009

Friday Estimates: A Christmas Carol Captures $9 Million Worth Of Christmas Cheer

November 7, 2009

Friday box office estimates are starting to roll in, and while we have a clear winner in Disney’s A Christmas Carol, the race for second place will be tight between The Men Who Stare At Goats, The Fourth Kind, and This Is It.  Here are Friday’s numbers, along with my early impressions on these results:

A Christmas Carol
With $9 million on Friday, a $30 million weekend seems likely, which is well below my $40 million prediction, yet in line with the starts of other Robert Zemeckis motion-capture films like The Polar Express ($23.3 million) and Beowulf ($27.5 million).  I’m kind of frustrated in myself.  I wanted to predict this closer to $30 million, but I just believed so much in Disney’s marketing prowess, and I upped my prediction considerably.  As I’ve said before, A Christmas Carol could have opened much higher if it had debuted two weeks from now, but the silver lining for Disney is that this Jim Carrey Christmas tale will plug along steadily for the next seven weeks, as the actual holiday of Christmas grows near.  If it’s lucky, A Christmas Carol will earn back its $175 million budget, but that will be a tough task.  Can’t wait to find out if it does!

The Fourth Kind

The alien abduction (non) thriller began with $5 million on Friday, which isn’t too shabby.  But between the terrible reviews, the crowded marketplace, and the way that fanboys rush out on opening day to see this sort of film, I wouldn’t expect much for the rest of the weekend.  By Sunday, The Fourth Kind will probably have abducted about $13 million out of American pockets.

The Men Who Stare At Goats

The George Clooney war satire earned $4.6 million on Friday.  I had this pegged at earning $2-3 million on Friday, since cynical movies about war don’t tend to sit well with audiences, but I guess the star power and the ambiguous ads were enough to coax people into the theaters.  Back in 2005, Jarhead started with $10.5 million on its way to a $27.7 million weekend, giving it an opening weekend multiplier of 2.6.   I would expect a similar degree of liberal frontloadedness for Goats, and a $12 million weekend seems likely.

The Box

I wanted this to really exceed my expectations, but unfortunately, it just met them.  With $2.85 million on Friday, the psychological suspense movie starring Cameron Diaz and James Marsden seems destined for the Wal Mart bargain rack in a few years.  Give the thriller $8 million for the frame.

This Is It and Paranormal Activity

The Michael Jackson documentary, This Is It, held up well on Friday, earning another $4.2 million.  I’m seeing a solid $13 million over three days for this one, good for second place at the box office.  Meanwhile, the freight train that is Paranormal Activity is officially coming to a stop.  The horror film was down 53% from last Friday to just $2.85 million.  An $8.2 million weekend should result.

Friday Estimates for November 6, 2009
1. A Christmas Carol – $9 million
2. The Fourth Kind – $5 million
3. The Men Who Stare At Goats – $4.6 million
4. This Is It – $4.2 million
5. The Box – $2.85 million
6. Paranormal Activity – $2.85 million
7. Couples Retreat – $2 million
8. Law Abiding Citizen – $1.8 million
9. Where The Wild Things Are – $1.2 million
10. Saw VI – $700,000
11. Precious – $585,000

Weekend Preview: Scrooge, Aliens, Men, Goats, And A Magic Box

November 6, 2009

This weekend is the first full weekend in November, and as the weather’s getting colder, the box office is getting hotter.  Four new wide releases hit screens today, and the box office should see some solid depth over the next few days.  Disney, as part of its crusade to turn Christmas into a two-month-long event, is releasing A Christmas Carol, and it will certainly win the weekend.  I don’t talk about it too much in the video because I wrote a rather epic analysis of it yesterday.  Read it here.  Also entering theaters this weekend is Universal’s alien abduction film, The Fourth Kind, Overture’s war satire, The Men Who Stare At Goats, and Warner Brothers’ psychological mind-bender, The Box.  Watch the video above to get my take on their box office prospects, and then check the chart below for my full box office predictions.  Let me know what your predictions are in the comments!

Box Office Predictions for November 6-8, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 A Christmas Carol 3,683 $40 million
2 The Fourth Kind 2,529 $13 million
3 This Is It 3,481 $12 million
4 Paranormal Activity 2,558 $9.5 million
5 The Box 2,635 $9 million
6 The Men Who Stare At Goats 2,443 $7 million
7 Law Abiding Citizen 2,474 $4.5 million
8 Couples Retreat 2,846 $4 million
9 Where The Wild Things Are 2,756 $2.9 million
10 Saw VI 2,091 $2.5 million

Weekend Fix: This Is It Takes #1 At The Box Office; Paranormal Activity Continues Its Rampage

November 2, 2009

Friday Estimates: Michael Jackson’s This Is It Doesn’t Live Up To Hype

October 31, 2009

Michael Jackson’s concert film, This Is It, earned $7.4 million on its opening Wednesday, and then followed that up with a steep 50% drop to $3.7 million on Thursday.  Obviously, this is going to be a very frontloaded film, and it will certainly undercut most everyone’s expectations, which had This Is It pegged at earning about $50 million in its first five days.  Now, a five day total of about $30 million seems more likely. 

UPDATE: Friday box office results are now in, and This Is It earned $7.5 million.  Just as the Wednesday/Thursday figures were frontloaded, so should the weekend figures be.  A $20 million weekend seems likely for Jackson’s posthumous documentary, which is far below what Sony was hoping for. Perhaps the film was hurt by the fact that Jackson lacked a large fanbase among young people. Perhaps the film will hold up better than expected over the rest of the weekend. We’ll have to wait and wee, but I wouldn’t count on it.  Paranormal Activity found another solid $6 million on Friday, and it should do very well on Halloween. Its performance will be good for second place, and the horror film that can’t be stopped should find $17 million over the weekend frame.  Meanwhile, Paranormal‘s main victim, Saw VI, could only manage $2 million on Friday, and it’s looking at an awful $6 million second weekend. Keep reading for the very early Friday Estimates:

Friday Estimates for October 30, 2009
1. This Is It – $7.5 million
2. Paranormal Activity – $6 million
3. Couples Retreat – $2.4 million
4. Law Abiding Citizen – $2.4 million
5. Where The Wild Things Are – $2.2 million
6. Saw VI – $2 million

Weekend Preview: This Is It For Michael Jackson’s This Is It

October 30, 2009

Only one new release this weekend, and that is Sony’s Michael Jackson’s This Is It, the documentary about Michael Jackson’s final hours as he prepared for his latest tour.  Watch the video above (you’ll see me getting musical!) to get my prediction for This Is It‘s box office potential.  The rest of the chart should largely look the same as last week.  Paranormal Activity will see a soft drop, as Paramount is adding 457 theaters to its count.  $100 million is all but assured for Paranormal at this point.  Law Abiding Citizen and Couples Retreat will continue their impressive runs with small decreases, while Where The Wild Things Are and (to a greater extent) Saw VI will fall hard.  Read on for my full predictions for this Halloween weekend…

Box Office Predictions for October 30 – November 1, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 Michael Jackson’s This Is It 3,481 $35 million
2 Paranormal Activity 2,402 $15 million
3 Law Abiding Citizen 2,764 $8 million
4 Where The Wild Things Are 2,754 $7 million
5 Couples Retreat 3,027 $6.7 million
6 Saw VI 3,036 $5.8 million
7 Astro Boy 3,020 $4 million
8 The Stepfather 2,346 $3.8 million
9 The Vampire’s Assistant 2,754 $3.2 million
10 Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 2,322 $3.2 million