Archive for the ‘The Water Horse’ Category

Weekend Preview: Treasure, Legend, Alvin Look To Lead Again

December 28, 2007

     In the last weekend of 2007, the box office is primed for a highly lucrative three days.  National Treasure: Book of Secrets will continue its dominance atop the charts, and the box office rankings should look extremely similar to the Christmas day charts since no new movies open on Friday.  The lack of Friday openers is not a problem though- in the last ten days, nine movies have gone wide, so there will still be abundant business at the multiplex.

     All of the returning films should hold almost exactly where they performed last weekend, and a few might even see a bump in their weekend grosses.  National Treasure has got the top spot in the bag.  A $42 million weekend would give the Disney film a great $130 million overall.  Alvin and the Chipmunks (which just keeps making money!) and I Am Legend will be neck and neck for second place, each of them earning about $28 million, for totals of $140 million and $195 million, respectively.

     Among the newcomers, Alien Vs. Predator: Requiem should do the best.  The gory extra-terrestrial thriller was slaughtered by critics, but that didn’t stop super-enthusiastic fanboys from rushing out to see it on opening night.  On Tuesday, AVP:R opened with a terrific $9.5 million.  But then it crumbled to $4.4 million on Wednesday, and then all the way down to $2.9 million on Thursday,  This is a textbook case of a front-loaded geek movie, which starts strong and then falls fast.  The next three days will probably be smaller than AVP:R‘s first three days, and the Fox film should earn about $13 million, for a $30 million total.
     Teen pregnancy comedy, Juno, has done wonderfully for itself, and it has been picking up steam as it continues to expand.  Audiences love this movie.  This week, it added $9 million to its overall total gross for a sweet $15.4 million total, and it should add another $8-9 million this weekend, which would give the indie Fox Searchlight film a fabulous $23 million total.
     Walden Media and Sony’s, The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep had an underwhelming opening week, earning just $7.6 million.  Judging by the ads, the children’s fantasy did look quite bland, but the reviews are actually very good.  Nonetheless, it should continue to perform disappointingly, and The Water Horse will pull in about $8 million for the weekend.

     The Great Debaters, Denzel Washington’s Oscar bait, has earned $7.2 million this week, with half of that total coming from its Christmas day gross.  While this is good for the small film, it appears that this film might be a bit front-loaded as well, which leaves me asking, could Oprah have fanboys?!  Reviews are good, but excitement is low for The Great Debaters, and it might rack up about $6.5 million.
Predicted Top 12 for December 28-30
1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets – $42 million
2. I Am Legend – $28 million
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks – $27.5 million
4. Alien Vs. Predator: Requiem – $13 million
5. Charlie Wilson’s War – $10 million
6. Juno – $8.5 million
7. The Water Horse – $8 million
8. Sweeney Todd – $8 million
9. P.S. I Love You – $7.5 million
10. The Great Debaters – $6.5 million
11. Enchanted – $6 million
12. Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story – $4 million

Christmas Grosses and The 5-Day Weekend

December 27, 2007

     You may not realize it, but each year, Christmas Day is one of the biggest box office days of the year.  Millions of North Americans flood into movie theaters after celebrating Christmas in the morning, and movies do quite well for themselves.  This Christmas was no exception.  This year, the Top 12 films earned a combined $62.7 million, which almost equals the entire weekend Top 12 from a few weeks ago!  The fact that Christmas Day is so huge at the movies always surprises me, because until I started following the box office a few years ago, I thought no one left their house on Christmas, but this is certainly not the case.  In fact, this was the biggest Christmas day box office in history!  National Treasure: Book of Secrets  captured the third best Christmas Day gross ever, and I Am Legend continued to dominate, while Alien Vs. Predator: Requiem had a great opening day as well:
Top 12 for Christmas Day
1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets – $13.7 million
2. I Am Legend – $9.8 million
3. Alien Vs. Predator: Requiem – $9.5 million
4. Alvin and the Chipmunks – $6 million
5. Charlie Wilson’s War – $4.3 million
6. The Great Debaters – $3.6 million
7. Sweeney Todd – $3.2 million
8. P.S. I Love You – $3.9 million
9. Juno – $2.8 million
10. The Water Horse – $2.4 million
11. The Golden Compass – $2 million
12. Walk Hard – $1.5 million
     Now, onto the five-day weekend.  As I’ve said, during the holidays, every day is pretty much part of the weekend, and all movies see incredible bumps in their grosses.  Still, for whatever reason, the five-day weekend is still a figure that box office analysts love to look at.  Thus, I’ve put together this chart of the Top 20 earners for the past five days.  The box office looks 100% different than it did two weeks ago, proving that there truly is no other time at the movies like late December.
Top 20 for December 21-25
# Movie Title 5-Day Weekend Total
1 National Treasure: Book of Secrets $65.4 million $65.4 million
2 I Am Legend $47.7 million $151 million
3 Alvin and the Chipmunks $38.6 million $94.5 million
4 Charlie Wilson’s War $16 million $16 million
5 Sweeney Todd $13.6 million $13.6 million
6 P.S. I Love You $10 million $10 million
7 Alien Vs. Predator: Requiem $9.5 million $9.5 million
8 The Golden Compass $7 million $51.4 million
9 Juno $6.8 million $9.8 million
10 Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story $6.3 million $6.3 million
11 Enchanted $6.2 million $100.4 million
12 The Great Debaters $3.6 million $3.6 million
13 Atonement $2.9 million $6.7 million
14 No Country For Old Men $2.8 million $37.8 million
15 The Water Horse $2.4 million $2.4 million
16 The Kite Runner $2 million $2.7 million
17 The Perfect Holiday $1.3 million $4.9 million
18 This Christmas $1.3 million $48.2 million
19 Fred Claus $1.2 million $71 million
20 August Rush $0.6 million $29.7 million

Christmas Preview: Four More Films Go Wide

December 25, 2007

     Welcome to today’s Christmas Preview, which will be short and to the point (because hey, even box office analysts need some family time on Christmas Eve).  On Christmas Day, four films enter an already crowded marketplace, each hoping to carve out its own niche at the box office.
     Alien Vs. Predator: Requiem is a sequel to 2004’s $80 million hit Alien Vs. Predator.  Full of gore, blood, grisly deaths, blood, and gore, this gory bloodbath of a thriller was not screened for critics, which is never promising for its reviews, though it should still have the best opening week of the newcomers.  Any success it finds will be based solely on the success of the Alien and Predator franchises, since this has pretty much no star power.  AVP:R (that’s the ridiculous, abbreviated title its going by) opens in 2,653 theaters, and if it performs well, it will obvi have anoth lame sequel, but whatev.  I’m thinking it can bag $17 million in the days before the weekend.

     The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep, a Walden Media production, is the story of a young Scottish boy who discovers a strange water creature.  He befirends it and raises it up in his bathtub, until it becomes too large for him to keep in the house.  Forced to move it into the lake, the boy must try to keep the creature a secret as it grows into the Loch Ness monster.  The trailers are nice, though unexciting, but it should still have an alright box office run because of the lack of competition.  If Alvin and the Chipmunks can make $85 million in ten days, then there is certainly room for another, better reviewed film aimed at the under ten set.  In 2,772 theaters, The Water Horse might pull in $14 million over the next three days.

     The Great Debaters was a movie I hadn’t heard of until it garnered a surprise Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture.  Produced by Oprah’s production company, Harpo, The Great Debaters is an inspirational teacher drama starring Denzel Washington.  It chronicles the journey of Wiley College’s all black debate team, and their fight to gain acceptance in an all white competition in the 1930’s.  With good reviews, The Great Debaters can rely on Denzel’s presence to draw in some crowds, but it will need some awards attention to transcend the expected box office for this rather generic story.  Opening in 1,164 venues, it could earn $6 million until the weekend.
     Juno, Fox Searchlight’s popular teen pregnancy comedy (which I previously wrote about here) expands into 998 theaters on Christmas, and it should see some great returns.  Juno might take in an additional $8 million in the time before Friday.
     The rest of the movies’ weekly totals should just about equal their previous weekend grosses, and this is where the power of holiday box office can be seen at work, and small opening numbers can be redeemed.
MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!