Archive for the ‘The Twilight Saga: New Moon’ Category

Friday Estimates: Avatar Finds $27 Million On First Day, But May Struggle For Rest Of Weekend

December 20, 2009

I’m sorry.  I know I said I’d be backed to regular posting, but my house at school got broken into and robbed last night, and that’s distracted me for the better part of the day.  I wish I had been more present for the first half of this, one of the biggest weekends of the year, and I apologize, but sometimes life throws you a curveball.  And that’s exactly what life is throwing at the box office this weekend.  After a strong opening day of $27 million for Avatar, a massive snowstorm hit the East coast, which will certainly limit box office prospects for the rest of the weekend.  Avatar should end up with about $70 million for the weekend, and based on the superb word-of-mouth, and the Christmas holiday, in which all students are now out of school, we’re looking at a spectacle that’s sure to have great legs in the coming weeks.  When it comes to Did You Hear About The Morgans? the resounding answer from American audiences is “No.”  The romantic comedy only managed to find $2.4 million yesterday.  Keep on reading for the full Friday chart, and then check back here tomorrow for the Weekend Fix!  I haven’t made a video in over a week, so I’m excited!

Friday Estimates for December 18, 2009
1. Avatar – $27 million
2. The Princess And The Frog – $3.4 million
3. The Blind Side – $3.2 million
4. Did You Hear About The Morgans? – $2.4 million
5. The Twilight Saga: New Moon – $1.4 million
6. Invictus – $1.3 million
7. A Christmas Carol – $951,000
8. Up In The Air – $925,000
9. Brothers – $880,000
10. Old Dogs – $709,000

Weekend Fix: Blind Side And New Moon Stay On Top; Brothers Leads A Sorry Crop Of Newcomers

December 6, 2009

Weekend Preview: Everybody’s Fine, Brothers, and Armored Won’t Tackle The Blind Side

December 4, 2009

The weekend after Thanksgiving is traditionally a pretty slow one at the box office, and this year shouldn’t be any different, though the addition of four new releases should add some depth to the frame.  Opening this week is Everybody’s Fine, Armored, Brothers, and Transylmania, which was getting a wide release but has since been reported as having just a limited one. (By the way, let me just say that I love one-word movie titles because they are so easy to highlight!)  It’s very unlikely that any of these newcomers will be able to take down New Moon or The Blind Side, which should trade spots atop the chart this week.  To hear my predictions for this week’s new releases, simply watch the video above, then check the chart below to see my full predictions for the week.

Box Office Predictions for December 4-6, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 The Blind Side 3,326 $23 million
2 The Twilight Saga: New Moon 4,124 $18 million
3 Brothers 2,088 $11 million
4 Everybody’s Fine 2,133 $9 million
5 A Christmas Carol 2,546 $8.6 million
6 2012 3,220 $7.7 million
7 Old Dogs 3,425 $7.3 million
8 Armored 1,915 $7 million
9 Ninja Assassin 2,503 $5.3 million
10 Planet 51 2,904 $5.1 million

Weekend Preview: New Moon And The Blind Side Will (Ninja) Assassinate Old Dogs And Mr. Fox

November 27, 2009

Thanksgiving Weekend is typically one of the best weekends each year at the box office.  Parents are off of work, kids are out of school, and families are already together, and studios usually have a large selection of high profile releases to please audiences.  There’s usually a lot of money flowing this weekend, and films often see very small drops, and occasionally even increase.  Thanksgiving Weekend really kicks off the holiday season at the box office, and while the movies will cool off a bit until mid-December, when people start having time off again, expect many of the titles you see over this frame to stick around for a while and continue earning money.  This year, between new releases (Old Dogs, Ninja Assassin, Fantastic Mr. Fox, and The Road), and some strong holdovers (New Moon and The Blind Side), there’s going to be a tremendous amount of depth at the box office, though it’s the returning films that are the real story this weekend.  You can see my weekend box office predictions (including a potentially crazy prediction for the number two film)  in the video above and then check below for the full prediction chart:

Box Office Predictions for November 27-29, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 The Twilight Saga: New Moon 4,042 $55 million
2 The Blind Side 3,140 $38 million
3 Old Dogs 3,425 $22 million
4 2012 3,444 $21 million
5 A Christmas Carol 3,013 $12 million
6 Ninja Assassin 2,503 $12 million
7 Precious 663 $9.3 million
8 Planet 51 3,035 $8.5 million
9 Fantastic Mr. Fox 2,033 $7 million
10 The Road 111 $2.2 million

Friday Estimates: New Moon Smashes Records With $72.7 Million! The Blind Side Grabs $10.9 Million!

November 20, 2009

UPDATE (Saturday AM):  Early Friday estimates have been released, and New Moon has shattered the record for highest single day box office!   It earned $72.7 million on Friday, enough to dethrone The Dark Knight‘s $67 million Friday in July 2008 as the best box office day in history.  It’s difficult for me to articulate to you all how incredible this result is.  Just think- Twilight earned about $70 million in three days last year, while New Moon earned $72.7 million in just one!  Crazy. Where does the vampire drama go from here?  Well, let’s figure that out, and while we’re at it, let’s look at the rest of the box office as well.

New Moon is going to fall quickly.  With an opening day that huge, it is simply inevitable.  Last year,  Twilight fell a big 41% on Saturday and 42% on Sunday, and the drops this time around might be even steeper.  Still, even if it falls 50% for the next few days, that will give New Moon a $126 million weekend.  I personally think it will be a little bit higher, due to obsessed fans’ repeat viewings.  Expect a $130 million weekend, and if New Moon does better, it could take the third place spot for best opening weekend from Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest, which earned $135.6 million in July 2006.

But believe it or not, there were actually other movies at the box office this weekend, and a few actually did very well!  In second place is Warner Brothers’ feel-good football movie, The Blind Side, which (to my delight) performed well beyond expectations, starting with $10.9 million on Friday.  Offering a strong choice for males not wanting to watch the emo vampire parade, this is counter-programming at its best. Bravo, Warner Brothers!  I didn’t expect this to open this big, but I did expect it to stick around throughout the holidays.  Now, though, its box office run will enjoy a great opening and strong legs!  Expect an opening weekend of $33 million for The Blind Side, and like I said in my video on Friday, this will break $100 million.

As far as the rest of the box office goes, 2012 fell 68% from last Friday, earning $8.1 million.  Probably benefiting from strong male attendance as well, a $28 million weekend is in store.  Precious, meanwhile, added another $3.5 million to its amazing cume, and it should find $11 million over the rest of the weekend.  Planet 51 found $3 million, while b>A Christmas Carol found $3.5 million yesterday. This should result in grosses of $11 million and $15 million, respectively.

Early Friday Estimates for November 20, 2009
1. The Twilight Saga: New Moon – $72.7 million
2. The Blind Side – $10.9 million
3. 2012 – $8.1 million
4. Precious – $3.5 million
5. A Christmas Carol – $3.5 million
6. Planet 51 – $3 million
7. The Men Who Stare At Goats – $860,000
8. Couples Retreat – $650,000
9. The Fourth Kind – $620,000
10. Paranormal Activity – $500,000

ORIGINAL POST (Friday AM): Based on some Summit’s official announcement, it looks like The Twilight Saga: New Moon earned an overwhelmingly huge $26.67 million from it’s 12:01 showings across the country. For some perspective, Harry Potter And The Half Blood Prince earned $22.8 million from midnight showings and  The Dark Knight earned $18.4 million.  This smashes both of those figures easily.  Let’s look at what that might mean for the rest of the weekend.

Harry Potter And The Half Blood Prince earned $58.1 million on its first days on the box office, and as I mentioned above, $22.8 million of that came from midnight showings.  That means 39.2% of the gross came from midnight showings.  If we assume a similar percentage for New Moon, it’s looking at a $68 million Friday.  However, Harry Potter came out on a Wednesday, so this figure might not be the best comparision.  Let’s look to The Dark Knight, instead…

The Dark Knight earned $67.2 million on its opening Friday, with $18.4 million coming from midnight showings.  That means 27.4% of the Friday gross came from midnight box office.  Applying these numbers to New Moon, it appears that the teen vampire drama might see a shockingly gigantic $97.4 million this Friday, but that’s just ludicrous.

In all reality, it will probably finish somewhere in between this range, and it’s looking very likely that New Moon will earn more on its opening Friday than Twilight earned in its entire first weekend.  Right now, I think $75 million is a safe estimate for Friday, and major front-loadedness is guaranteed for the picture.  The Dark Knight had a 2.35 weekend multiplier, and New Moon‘s will be even steeper.  Still, we may be looking at a $150 million weekend!  We’ll have to stay tuned to find out.  Regardless, all I know is that New Moon is taking over the world. You may as well just pull your collar down, lead your head back, and submit to the vampires…

Weekend Preview: Despite Vampires, New Moon’s Debut Won’t Suck

November 20, 2009

We’re quickly approaching the ever-lucrative Thanksgiving weekend, and yet, it looks like this weekend might prove to be even bigger than the next!  Thanks to the debut of The Twilight Saga: New Moon, legions of vampire-obsessed women are going to flood theaters over the next few days, desperately hoping to see their beloved Bella, Edward, and Jacob.  Forget the poor reviews; this movie has a built-in audience like none other.  Also opening this weekend is the sports drama, The Blind Side, which stars Sandra Bullock, Kathy Bates, and Tim McGraw, and Planet 51, a computer animated kids movie about aliens. In the above video, I’ll go over my box office predictions for these new openers, and below, you can check out my full box office predictions, including my thoughts on holdovers like 2012, A Christmas Carol, and Precious, which is expanding even further this weekend.  Overall, there’s a lot of depth at the box office right now, and we’re looking at a possible $200 million weekend from the Top 10!  Exciting stuff for a box office junkie like me!

2012

The apocalyptic thriller started off very well with $65.6 million last weekend, but with an even bigger blockbuster bursting onto the scene, a 60% drop seems likely.  I’d say $26 million seems about right.

A Christmas Carol

After dropping just 25% last weekend, another small drop should be in store for Disney’s 3D Robert Zemeckis film as we approach Christmas… you know, the holiday that this is actually about.  Perhaps it will fall harder, as New Moon is going to take away a large chunk of everyone’s office, but I’m going with a modest 30% drop to $16.1 million

Precious
Riding the wave of early awards buzz, Precious earned an amazing $6 million out of just 174 theaters last weekend, coming in third place.  Therefore, Lionsgate is speeding up Precious‘ release, expanding it into 629 theaters this week.  An $11.2 million weekend might result.

Box Office Predictions for November 20-22, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 The Twilight Saga: New Moon 4,024 $113 million
2 2012 3,408 $26 million
3 A Christmas Carol 3,578 $16.1 million
4 The Blind Side 3,110 $16 million
5 Planet 51 3,035 $12 million
6 Precious 629 $11.2 million
7 The Men Who Stare At Goats 2,056 $2.8 million
8 Couples Retreat 1,712 $2.7 million
9 This Is It 1,640 $2.3 million
10 Law Abiding Citizen 1,327 $2.2 million