Archive for the ‘The Stepfather’ Category

Friday Estimates: Paranormal Activity Kills The Saw Franchise?

October 24, 2009

This is not good news for the Saw franchise.  Saw VI could only open to $7 million on Friday.  Considering how frontloaded this franchise historically is, this mean were looking at an $18 million weekend.  That’s WAY down from the standard $30 million openings of the Saw franchise.  There’s not great news for The Vampire’s Assistant ($2.3 million), Astro Boy ($2 million), or Amelia ($1.3 million) either.  Paranormal Activity looks like it will take the top spot after a $7.5 million Friday, and it should earn pretty much exactly what I predicted with $21.5 million over the weekend.  In other news, Where The Wild Things Are dropped a huge 63% from last Friday to $4.4 million, and it should pull in $13-14 million over the weekend.  That’s a huge drop for a movie that targeted kids and families… Law Abiding Citizen, meanwhile, fell just 45% to $4.2 million, and it should find $12.5 million over the weekend.  Here are the very early Friday Estimates:

Early Friday Estimates for October 23, 2009
1. Paranormal Activity – $7.5 million
2. Saw VI – $7 million
3. Where The Wild Things Are – $4.4 million
4. Law Abiding Citizen – $4.2 million
5. Couples Retreat – $3.7 million
6. The Vampire’s Assistant – $2.3 million
7. The Stepfather – $2.1 million
8. Astro Boy – $2 million
9. Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs – $1.5 million
10. Zombieland – $1.3 million
11. Amelia – $1.3 million

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Weekend Fix: Wild Things Ain’t That Wild, Law Abiding Citizen Does Well, Paranormal Activity AMAZES

October 18, 2009

Friday Estimates: Where The Wild Things Are On Top; Law Abiding Citizen Actually Does Well!

October 17, 2009

Some very early Friday Estimates are starting to roll in, and as predicted, Where The Wild Things Are topped the Friday box office with an estimated $11.9 million.  This should guide the Warner Brothers feature to a solid $35 million weekend.  Keep reading to find out how the rest of the box office looked…

Law Abiding Citizen, the critically ravaged prison drama starringJamie Foxx and Gerard Butler, found a surprisingly great $7.7 million on Friday.  I predicted it to earn just $9.5 million, so this is definitely a break out hit. It could be headed to a $20 million weekend.

Paranormal Activity grossed a very good $6.7 million out of 760 theaters on Friday, so it should finish the weekend with an unbelievable $17 million.

Couples Retreat fell 50% from last Friday to $5.8 million, but it should recover over the rest of the weekend and finish with about $19 million.

The Stepfather also exceeded my expectations, finding $4.3 million on Friday, which is far from spectacular, but pretty good when you consider the poor reviews, the weak advertising, and the lack of proven star power.  It might grab $10.5 million over the weekend frame.

It should also be said that the box office is exhibiting a tremendous amount of depth this weekend, as five films are headed to $10+ million weekends! This abundance of ticket sales and great business is kind of random, considering this weekend really only had one high profile release, but hey, in this recession, every economic win is a reason to rejoice!

Box Office Estimates For October 16, 2009
1. Where The Wild Things Are – $11.9 million
2. Law Abiding Citizen – $7.7 million
3. Paranormal Activity – $6.7 million
4. Couples Retreat – $5.8 million
5. The Stepfather – $4.3 million
6. Zombieland – $2.4 million
7. Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs – $2.1 million
8. Toy Story / Toy Story 2 (3D) – $825,000
9. The Invention Of Lying – $605,000
10. Surrogates – $585,000

Weekend Preview: Will Where The Wild Things Are Be The Blockbuster Everyone’s Hoping It Will Be?

October 16, 2009

Okay guys, there have been a couple requests for a traditional Weekend Preview, so this week I decided to do one.  The video above is asking for some feedback on which format you like the best, so please chime in with your opinion in the comments!  This week, three new films hit theaters, but based on buzz,  it almost seems like there’s just one new release.  On the docket we have the very low profile Law-Abiding Citizen and The Stepfather, and the very high profile Where The Wild Things Are.  Keep reading to see my predictions of how each of these movies will perform this weekend.

Where The Wild Things Are – 3,735 theaters – $31.5 million

1. Sorry popular media, but I still say this Warner Brothers movie is too hipster and weird to be a huge mainstream success. 
2. Between the built in fans of the book, the strong advertising campaign, and the ultra-wide release into 3,735 theaters, a solid opening weekend is guaranteed.
3. Reviews are fairly good, but that’s from snobby critics who actually appreciate artistic themes and dour characters (think Donnie Darko).  This film will have masses of teenage fans who say it is the best piece of art they have ever seen, but for the common middle American family, I’m not so sure this plotless dreamscape will be beloved.

Law Abiding Citizen – 2,889 theaters – $9.5 million
1. This film stars Jamie Foxx and Gerard Butler, two movie stars who aren’t exactly box office draws.
2. Unlike the above release, I have seen almost no advertising for this drama, which is about a tyrannical prisoner and a harsh district attorney.
3. The wide release will garner at least some attention, but abysmal reviews will keep the target audience of this (adults) away.

The Stepfather – 2,734 theaters – $6 million

1. I feel like some Screen Gems producers were sitting in a room and said, “Hey, lets make a cheap horror remake and just throw a good looking Gossip Girl star in it!  It’s almost no work on our part!”
2. Unfortunately for the above producers, these poorly reviewed, cheap retreads only do well when supported by a major advertising campaign, which this has not had.
3. The good news for Screen Gems is that I’m sure this movie was inexpensive to make, so even if it fails financially, I’m sure it was a small investment.

Paranormal Activity – 760 theaters – $17 million

1. The little horror film that could expands into 600 more theaters this weekend, and I’d expect a full wide release from Paramount next weekend.
2. Because of the expansion, the blazing $49,000 per theater average of last week is going to come down a bit, but a $21,000 average would still give this an amazing $17 million for the weekend.
3. Based on Paranormal Activity‘s shockingly effective “Demand It” campaign, I’d expect a slew of films to begin trying to use Eventful to make their movies break out.  This seems like a rather unique case, though, and I don’t expect lightning to strike twice.

Among holdovers, Couples Retreat, since it is a widely accessible comedy, should see a friendly second weekend drop of about 45% to $18 million. Zombieland and Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs should keep riding the wave of fantastic word-of-mouth to small drops of 40% and 30%, respectively. My full predictions are below:

Box Office Predictions for October 16-18, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 Where The Wild Things Are 3,735 $31.5 million
2 Couples Retreat 3,009 $18 million
3 Paranormal Activity 760 $17 million
4 Law Abiding Citizen 2,889 $9.5 million
5 Zombieland 3,171 $9 million
6 Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 3,037 $8 million
7 The Stepfather 2,734 $7 million
8 Toy Story / Toy Story 2 (3D) 1,467 $5 million
9 Surrogates 2,326 $2.7 million
10 The Invention Of Lying 1,624 $2 million