Archive for the ‘The Blind Side’ Category

Poll: Which 2009 Release Had The Most Surprisngly Awesome Box Office Run?

January 14, 2010

Let’s try something new: a poll!  Thursdays are the day of the week when I usually do a box office analysis article, and this week I’m answering a request from Rohan (sidenote: I’m reading The Two Towers right now, and I have a whole new appreciation for the word “Rohan”) to go take a look at the biggest box office surprises of 2009.  I’ve narrowed the choices down to seven, and believe it or not, Avatar is not included!  I wanted to showcase those films that exceeded expectations in a big way, so movies that everyone knew would be blockbusters aren’t really on the list.  Check below to read my seven cases as to why each movie deserves your vote, and then go ahead and vote in the poll!  If your ideal choice isn’t listed, then let me know what you think in the comments.  Can’t wait to see the results!

The Blind Side ($220 million so far)

Why it deserves your vote: Because the little $29 million feature opened very well against that  behemoth known as New Moon, earning $34 million in its opening weekend. After that, the feel-good movie showed some incredible legs over the holidays, earning a stunning $220 million, over 6.5 times as much as its opening weekend!  The crazy thing is, it’s still not done, either!

Star Trek ($257.7 million)
Why it deserves your vote: Sure, this flick had a big $150 million budget, but the Star Trek franchise was dead in the water when J.J. Abrams rebooted it.  The critical darling introduced this intergalactic adventure to a brand new generation, and earned a whole lot of money on the way!

Paranormal Activity ($107.9 million)
Why it deserves your vote: This independent horror movie was made for $15,000.  Yes, just $15,000.  After sitting on the shelf for years, Paramount decided to release the film in a few theaters.  Then they started an online marketing campaign.  Then the campaign went viral.  Then Paramount added it to a few more theaters.  Then it made a shocking amount of money. Then everyone started talking about it.  Then Paramount put it into wide release.  Then it killed Saw VI.  Then it broke $100 million.  Then it was declared an all-out phenomenon. 

Taken ($145 million)
Why it deserves your vote: Because it was a simple, $25 million action film starring Liam Neeson, who was hardly an A-list box office draw.  I’m sure Fox expected it to do some solid enough business, and then make a little bit extra on DVD, but they got way more than they bargained for. The film opened to a solid $24 million, and it connected with audiences in a huge way.  The thriller surprised everyone over the course of the next two months, dropping by tiny amounts on its way to $145 million.

The Hangover ($277.3 million)
Why it deserves your vote: Warner Brothers launched one of the biggest comedies of all time out of nothing.  No A-list stars, no huge budget, no family-friendly premise, no super-anticipatory buzz.  The R-rated comedy opened to a fantastic $44 million over the first weekend in June, and then chugged along all Summer on its way to $277 million.

Inglorious Basterds ($120.5 million)
Why it deserves your vote: Because it made a rather unsavory WWII story accessible to audiences, and actually gave The Weinstein Company a hit!

Paul Blart: Mall Cop ($146.3 million)
Why it deserves your vote: Because, against all odds, the wretchedly reviewed comedy somehow caught on with audiences, launching the Era Of Easy Entertainment in the process.  Who’d of thunk that this $26 million January release would become a box office star?

Go ahead and place your vote in the poll below:

Which 2009 Release Had The Most Surprisingly Great Box Office Run?(polls)

Weekend Fix: Aliens Prove More Popular Than Vampires As Avatar Leads Box Office For 4th Weekend

January 10, 2010

Friday Estimates: Sherlock And Avatar Both Earn $24 Million On Christmas Day! Who’s Gonna Win?

December 26, 2009

What a weekend this is shaping up to be! I did not expect Sherlock Holmes to garner these sorts of huge numbers, but the Guy Ritchie reboot has found a major audience on Christmas Day.  The detective/action hero movie found a massive $24 $25 million on Friday, but will it be able to hold off Avatar, which earned the same amount, over the rest of the weekend?  I don’t think so…

It’s a bit hard to say how movies will do over the rest of the weekend because there hasn’t been a Christmas Day on a Friday in about twenty years. On top of that, the trend of going to the movies on Christmas is relatively recent- it wasn’t always a huge day at the box office! Now, it’s one of the biggest of the year! That being said, speculating about the box office is what I do best, so here’s my take on the weekend:

Avatar has already been out for a week, so the die-hard fans have had their chance to see it. On top of that, the word-of-mouth is amazing.  (Even my grandparents were talking about it yesterday!) Therefore, it should see a more typical Saturday box office increase than Sherlock Holmes will. If Avatar see’s a 2.9 weekend multiplier (reduced because of the Christmas Day bump), it will earn a fantastic $70 million this weekend. Sherlock Holmes can probably manage a 2.6 multiplier, which would give the flick a pretty great $64 million start.

That movie about chipmunks (I won’t mention its name) managed to steal $12 million worth of tickets from the American public, which, let’s be honest, is a travesty. After grossing $27 million on Wednesday and Thursday, a weekend of $37 million is probably in order. That makes me very sad, especially because it knocked The Princess And The Frog‘s box office down to just $2 million on Friday. Disney isn’t happy, I’m sure.

But the movies weren’t totally dominated by young people this weekend! Adult fare did pretty well too! It’s Complicated earned $7.5 million on Friday, and the Meryl Streep and Alec Baldwin rom-com could see $22 million over the weekend. That’s certainly better than Did You Hear About The Morgans? did last weekend. Up In The Air, riding high on awards buzz, grossed $4 million in its first Friday in wide release. A $12 million weekend should result. Nine failed to really break out on Friday, grossing just $2.2 million. Perhaps it was the mixed reviews that did Nine in, or maybe it was the fact that the advertisements failed to explain what this movie was about. Either way, a $6 million weekend isn’t anything to sing about. Check out the full Friday box office chart below, and for more box office updates, follow me on Twitter!

Early Friday Estimates for December 25, 2009
1. Sherlock Holmes – $24 million
2. Avatar – $24 million
3. Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakuel – $12 million
4. It’s Complicated – $7.5 million
5. Up In The Air – $4 million
6. The Blind Side – $4 million
7. Nine – $2.2 million
8. The Princess And The Frog – $2 million
9. Did You Hear About The Morgans – $1.6 million
10. Invictus – $1.3 million

Weekend Fix: Avatar Lives Up To Some Very High Expectations

December 20, 2009

Friday Estimates: Avatar Finds $27 Million On First Day, But May Struggle For Rest Of Weekend

December 20, 2009

I’m sorry.  I know I said I’d be backed to regular posting, but my house at school got broken into and robbed last night, and that’s distracted me for the better part of the day.  I wish I had been more present for the first half of this, one of the biggest weekends of the year, and I apologize, but sometimes life throws you a curveball.  And that’s exactly what life is throwing at the box office this weekend.  After a strong opening day of $27 million for Avatar, a massive snowstorm hit the East coast, which will certainly limit box office prospects for the rest of the weekend.  Avatar should end up with about $70 million for the weekend, and based on the superb word-of-mouth, and the Christmas holiday, in which all students are now out of school, we’re looking at a spectacle that’s sure to have great legs in the coming weeks.  When it comes to Did You Hear About The Morgans? the resounding answer from American audiences is “No.”  The romantic comedy only managed to find $2.4 million yesterday.  Keep on reading for the full Friday chart, and then check back here tomorrow for the Weekend Fix!  I haven’t made a video in over a week, so I’m excited!

Friday Estimates for December 18, 2009
1. Avatar – $27 million
2. The Princess And The Frog – $3.4 million
3. The Blind Side – $3.2 million
4. Did You Hear About The Morgans? – $2.4 million
5. The Twilight Saga: New Moon – $1.4 million
6. Invictus – $1.3 million
7. A Christmas Carol – $951,000
8. Up In The Air – $925,000
9. Brothers – $880,000
10. Old Dogs – $709,000

Weekend Fix: Blind Side And New Moon Stay On Top; Brothers Leads A Sorry Crop Of Newcomers

December 6, 2009

Friday Estimates: Blind Side Is On Top, Brothers Opens Solidly, Everybody’s Fine Is Anything But

December 5, 2009

Early Friday estimates are in, and you know why I’m excited?  Because it snowing where I live! (Like in the picture above) You know why else I’m excited?  Because Brothers had a pretty solid debut!  Armored and Everybody’s Fine weren’t so lucky.  In the end, though, The Blind Side and New Moon are going to top the box office once again.  Read on for the Friday box office results, along with my notes and early weekend projections.

1. The Blind Side – $6.8 million
The Sandra Bullock football drama that everyone seems to love will rise to number one this weekend.  With almost $7 million on Friday, a $22 million weekend is in the cards. 

2. New Moon – $5.1 million
The emo-vampire flick saw another steep drop on Friday, but it should still find another $16 million this weekend, good for a whopping $256 million total.

3. Brothers – $3.6 million
I gotta say, I’m pretty proud of myself for predicting this one so accurately!  I knew I wasn’t the only one excited for this!  The drama could see an $11 million weekend.  If only I’d done as good of a job predicting Everybody’s Fine…

4. Armored – $2.4 million
The crime caper with surprisingly good reviews found about $2.4 million on Friday, and since this skews to a younger demographic, there should be a slight bit of frontloadedness here.  It should find $7 million over the frame.


5. Old Dogs – $2 million
6. 2012 – $2 million
7. A Christmas Carol – $1.9 million
8. Ninja Assassin – $1.6 million

9. Everybody’s Fine – $1.3 million

Alright, alright.  I’ll admit, I was off in my prediction for this family film, but oh well- it happens!  The Robert De Niro feature will earn around $4 million this weekend.

10. Planet 51 – $1 million

Weekend Preview: Everybody’s Fine, Brothers, and Armored Won’t Tackle The Blind Side

December 4, 2009

The weekend after Thanksgiving is traditionally a pretty slow one at the box office, and this year shouldn’t be any different, though the addition of four new releases should add some depth to the frame.  Opening this week is Everybody’s Fine, Armored, Brothers, and Transylmania, which was getting a wide release but has since been reported as having just a limited one. (By the way, let me just say that I love one-word movie titles because they are so easy to highlight!)  It’s very unlikely that any of these newcomers will be able to take down New Moon or The Blind Side, which should trade spots atop the chart this week.  To hear my predictions for this week’s new releases, simply watch the video above, then check the chart below to see my full predictions for the week.

Box Office Predictions for December 4-6, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 The Blind Side 3,326 $23 million
2 The Twilight Saga: New Moon 4,124 $18 million
3 Brothers 2,088 $11 million
4 Everybody’s Fine 2,133 $9 million
5 A Christmas Carol 2,546 $8.6 million
6 2012 3,220 $7.7 million
7 Old Dogs 3,425 $7.3 million
8 Armored 1,915 $7 million
9 Ninja Assassin 2,503 $5.3 million
10 Planet 51 2,904 $5.1 million

Weekend Fix: Waning New Moon And Robust Blind Side Crush The Newcomers Over Thankgsiving

November 29, 2009

Friday Estimates: The Blind Side And Everything Else Has A Lot To Be Thankful For This Weekend!

November 28, 2009

Thanksgiving Weekend’s Friday box office numbers are finally in, and we are seeing some major  activity at the movies.  New Moon held about as expected, but The Blind Side is blowing up, surpassing even my very high expectations! In fact, pretty much everything is doing better than expected this weekend!  There is a lot of money being made, and it makes you wish that that were the case in the rest of the economy… Anyway, let’s go over this movie by movie:

1. New Moon – $17.9 million

This is a bit below what I was predicting that this would do on Friday.  The vampire blockbuster is looking at a $48 million weekend and $238 million by the end of the frame.

2. The Blind Side – $16.2 million

Here’s the real story of the weekend.  The Blind Side is up a huge 46% from last Friday, and that’s based on strong word-of-mouth alone!   Most analysts were conservative, saying The Blind Side might earn $26-27 million this weekend.  I went way beyond that and predicted a $38 million weekend, but it’s even exceeding my predictions!  The beloved Sandra Bullock football film is giving New Moon a run for its money this weekend, but it should finish in second this frame with a ridiculously strong $40 million.  That would give it $100 million after just ten days.  Wow.

3. 2012 – $7 million

Also held up pretty well this weekend.  A small weekend decline to $19 million seems in order. While this hasn’t been magnificently huge in the US, worldwide, this has already earned $476 million.

4. Old Dogs – $6.85 million

This has a good shot at surpassing 2012 for the #3 spot.  Family films tend to blow up on Saturday and Sunday, so I’m expecting $22 million over the weekend.

5. A Christmas Carol – $6.6 million

About time this started to show some signs of life!  Now that people are actually in the mood for a Christmas movie, this should recover a bit after its lackluster start.  A $18 million weekend will help A Christmas Carol quite a bit, as will the small December declines, but in my opinion, it’s just too little too late for the absurdly expensive feature.

6. Ninja Assassin – $5.7 million

This is definitely a better result than I was thinking.  Ninja Assassin already earned $7.9 million on Wednesday and Thursday, so a likely $15 million weekend will bring its 5-day total to about $23 million.

7. Planet 51 – $4.1 million

Actually improved upon its last Friday, but I’m sorry: I just didn’t care last weekend, and I don’t care this weekend.

8. Fantastic Mr. Fox – $3 million

The Wes Anderson animated film isn’t going to break any records, and I’m not about to call it a huge hit, but it might actually earn double digits this weekend.  $8.5 million seems to be in the cards for the inventive picture.

9. Precious – $2.8 million

Maybe this is finally showing some signs of losing a bit of steam.  Once award nominations start up (and the Precious-themed Oprah episode airs) this should pick back up.  Still, $7.5 million ain’t bad at all for a film in 663 theaters.

10. The Men Who Stare At Goats – $630,000

Told’ya this would be a front-loaded liberal fanboy movie!  It started off okay with $12.7 million, but it’s barely going to pass $30 million total this weekend.

11. The Road – $560,000

People who love this film will gloat about its “amazing” box office, saying that it’s only in 111 theaters and earned $560,000 this weekend. But if people were hoping this would break out and be a big hit, then I’m sorry to say that they’re in for some bad news.  The Road is going to need a lot more than a $1.6 million weekend and a $16,000 per theater average to merit much expansion and promotion, and that looks to be where the grim film is headed.

12. The Princess And The Frog – $277,000

This is an astounding figure.  Out of 2 theaters, The Princess And The Frog captured all that money.  While this does bode very well for the film’s future, we have to keep in mind that people were paying about $30 for each ticket…