Archive for the ‘September 18-20’ Category

Weekend Fix: Meatballs’ Box Office Performance Wasn’t Cloudy At All!

September 20, 2009

Friday Estimates: Meatballs-Good, Informant-Solid, Love Happens-Fair, Jennifer’s Body-Poor

September 19, 2009

Here are your box office estimates for Friday September 18:

Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs had a solid first day with $8.1 million, and it seems headed for a $27 million weekend.  The Informant! fared pretty well with $3.7 million on Friday, and a $10.8 million weekend seems in order.  Jennifer Aniston’s Love Happens found $3.1 million, while Megan Fox’s Jennifer’s Body earned $2.8 million on Friday, but Jennifer’s Body is sure to be frontloaded.  Give Love Happens $9 million for the weekend, while Body might find $6.8 million.

Friday Estimates for September 18, 2009
1. Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs – $8.1 million
2. The Informant – $3.7 million
3. I Can Do Bad All By Myself – $3.1 million
4. Love Happens – $3.1 million
5. Jennifer’s Body – $2.8 million
6. 9 – $1.6 million
7. Inglorious Basterds – $1.2 million
8. All About Steve – $1.1 million
9. Sorority Row – $850,000
10. The Final Destination – $740,000
11. Whiteout – $665,000
12. Julie And Julia – $590,000

What do you think about these results? Let me hear your reactions in the comments!

Weekend Preview: Will "Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs" Rain As Box Office King?

September 18, 2009

Four new films hit theaters this weekend, and contrary to the usual September box office behavior, we’ve got some high profile, well promoted pictures flying onto the screen.  Sony is bringing us an animated adaptation of the famous childrens book, Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs.   Fox has the Megan Fox horror film, Jennifer’s Body.  Warner Brothers is premiering the Matt Damon vehicle, The Informant!.  And Universal is debuting a schmaltzy romantic (comedic?) film, Love Happens.  Along with solid holdovers from Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself and 9, it should be a lively weekend at the box office, which makes my job fun!  Here are my predictions:

Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs – 3,119 theaters – $27 million
1. This is based on a popular childrens book.  Movies that are based on books have built in audiences, which helps box office a lot, but a movie with a built in kids audience is even better because it drags parents into the theater.
2. Advertising has been strong, the premise is fun, and reviews are great.  All of these things will help the box office.
3. Isn’t it kind of nice to just get a nice, normal computer animated film?  None of this 3-D mumbo jumbo.  Imagine how refreshing it will be when Disney debuts The Princess And The Frog later this year and we get nice, normal traditional animation!

Jennifer’s Body – 2,701 theaters – $13 million
1. Some analysts have this earning more, but I’m not convinced that Megan Fox is actually a box office draw.  Guys love to see her in the Transformers movies, but that’s like saying Keira Knightley is the reason guys saw the Pirates of the Caribbean films. Action and adventure will get men into the seats, and though they’ll gobble up the gorgeous women selling themselves on the screen, I don’t believe that is the main drawing factor.  Fox has yet to prove she can open a movie, and as Sorority Row taught us last week, hot girls aren’t enough to make something a box office hit.
2. In the film, Megan Fox becomes some sort of zombie, but the advertisements make her look more like some sort of vampire.  I’m sure this is intentional, as vampires are the new penguins in terms of consumer appeal, and it will probably help a bit.
3. R Ratings are not good for box office.  Especially for a movie headlined by someone with a very young fanbase.

The Informant! – 2,505 theaters – $12.5 million
1. I’m not going to lie.  I had heard nothing about this movie until last week, but it looks like it’s being marketed as a Coen Brothers-style farce by Steven Soderbergh.
2. Matt Damon is another star who has yet to prove himself as a box office draw outside of the Bourne and Oceans franchises.  Still, he’s reached a certain level of celebrity in the last two years.  You know, the kind where you can go on any late night talk show whenever you want.  The kind where you can get on the cover of People without any movie to promote.  It’s called the A-list, and while Damon is no Brad Pitt, he’ll certainly bring some crowds to the theater.
3. Calling your movie The Informant! instantly places it into the realm of politics.  Movies about politics are tough sells, especially these days, when people have just about had enough of our own government.  The subject matter is the biggest negative to this film’s box office.

Love Happens – 1,898 theaters – $12 million
1. The reviews are terrible, the title is horrendous, and the theater count is pretty low.  But this is a romance, and romances are review-proof.  If P.S. I Love You can make $53 million, then I simply can’t believe that this, a film with much more star power, will flop.
2. Jennifer Aniston is a box office draw.  She proved it with Marley And Me, The Break Up, and He’s Just Not That Into You.  People don’t give her the credit she deserves
3. Nights In Rodanthe opened in late September last year to $13.4 million, but that movie looked more romantic and less dour, so I think Love Happens will perform similarly.

Holdovers

Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself will plummet this weekend, as all Tyler Perry films do in their second weekend.  Don’t be surprised if it undercuts by $10 million prediction.  9, meanwhile adds 399 theaters, to bring its venue count to 2,060.  That should soften it’s second weekend decline, giving it a $6.3 million weekend. Here are the full box office predictions:

Box Office Predictions for September 18-20, 2009
1. Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs – $27 million
2. Jennifer’s Body – $13 million
3. The Informant! – $12.5 million
4. Love Happens – $12 million
5. I Can Do Bad All By Myself – $10 million
6. 9 – $6.3 million
7. Inglorious Basterds – $3.6 million
8. All About Steve – $2.7 million
9. The Final Destination – $2.4 million
10. Whiteout – $2.2 million

What are your predictions?  And what do you think of mine? Let me know in the comments!