Alright guys, I’ve already talked a good bit about Edge Of Darkness this week, but I’m going to do it a little bit more. Since the popular box office game of the week (wouldn’t it be awesome if we actually had one of those?!) has been to see what can take Avatar out of the #1 spot, and since Edge Of Darkness has the best shot of doing so, and since it is Box Office Analysis Thursday, I thought we could take a quick look at three similar movies at the box office and perhaps make an early prediction for Edge Of Darkness. Take a look inside for this box office quickie:
This revenge thriller followed Liam Neeson on a vengeful quest to rescue his kidnapped daughter. It opened on the same weekend last year that Edge Of Darkness is opening on this year, though it had to compete with The Super Bowl, which hurt its Sunday grosses. Still, people enjoyed Neeson’s determined drive to take down the evil society that had kidnapped his baby girl, and Taken opened to a solid $24.7 million before grossing $145 million overall.
Man On Fire (2004)
Denzel Washington played Dakota Fanning’s bodyguard in a dangerous Mexico City. Despite his desire not to get attached, Washington grows to care deeply about the young girl. When she’s kidnapped, he goes on a rampage, stopping at nothing to get her back, even if it’s at a major cost to himself. The gritty revenge thriller was a mid level hit, grossing $22.7 million on opening weekend and $77.9 million total.
Mel Gibson starred in this thriller back in 1999, and I can’t get over the poster’s uncanny resemblance to the ads for Edge Of Darkness! In Payback, Gibson played an oily guy who was betrayed by his friend and shot by his own wife. Remarkably, he recovers and quickly decides to seek revenge on his former loved ones. The thriller opened to $21.2 million and earned $81.5 million overall.
Based on the predictions above, I think we’re going to be looking at yet another debut in the $20 millions. Mel Gibson may have a tarnished image, but he’s still a star, and he looks like a perfect fit for this angry role. This mini-genre of individual men seeking revenge has proved to be pretty consistent, and with a good advertising campaign, I think Edge Of Darkness might be looking at a $26 million opening weekend and a $95 million gross.