Archive for the ‘Projection’ Category

Weekend Preview: Daybreakers, Leap Year, And Youth In Revolt Unlikely To Dethrone December Triumvirate

January 8, 2010

After a week of no new releases, three films enter theaters today.  We’ve got the vampire thriller Daybreakers, the romantic comedy Leap Year, and the sex comedy Youth In Revolt.  While at least two of these films should fare pretty well at the box office, none of them are likely to dethrone the ├╝ber-popular triumvirate of Avatar, Sherlock Holmes, and Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel, which have been unstoppable since late December.  Now that the holidays are officially over, expect drops in the 50% range for most returning films, though Avatar should see a bit softer of a fall, as it’s becoming quite the phenomenon around the world.  Check out the video above to hear my predictions for the newcomers, then check out the chart below to see my full weekend forecast:

Box Office Predictions for January 8-10, 2010
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 Avatar 3,326 $42.5 million
2 Sherlock Holmes 4,124 $18 million
3 Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 2,088 $17 million
4 Daybreakers 2,133 $15 million
5 Leap Year 2,546 $12 million
6 It’s Complicated 3,220 $8.8 million
7 Youth In Revolt 3,425 $6.2 million
8 The Blind Side 1,915 $6 million
9 Up In The Air 2,503 $5.6 million
10 Planet 51 2,904 $5.1 million

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Weekend Preview: Everybody’s Fine, Brothers, and Armored Won’t Tackle The Blind Side

December 4, 2009

The weekend after Thanksgiving is traditionally a pretty slow one at the box office, and this year shouldn’t be any different, though the addition of four new releases should add some depth to the frame.  Opening this week is Everybody’s Fine, Armored, Brothers, and Transylmania, which was getting a wide release but has since been reported as having just a limited one. (By the way, let me just say that I love one-word movie titles because they are so easy to highlight!)  It’s very unlikely that any of these newcomers will be able to take down New Moon or The Blind Side, which should trade spots atop the chart this week.  To hear my predictions for this week’s new releases, simply watch the video above, then check the chart below to see my full predictions for the week.

Box Office Predictions for December 4-6, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 The Blind Side 3,326 $23 million
2 The Twilight Saga: New Moon 4,124 $18 million
3 Brothers 2,088 $11 million
4 Everybody’s Fine 2,133 $9 million
5 A Christmas Carol 2,546 $8.6 million
6 2012 3,220 $7.7 million
7 Old Dogs 3,425 $7.3 million
8 Armored 1,915 $7 million
9 Ninja Assassin 2,503 $5.3 million
10 Planet 51 2,904 $5.1 million

Star Trek: $7 Million From Thursday Showings!

May 8, 2009

Just pulled this little tidbit from Nikkie Finke over at DHD:

FRIDAY 10:50 AM: Sources tell me that Thursday screenings starting at 7 PM, including midnight shows, made approximately $7 million for Star Trek. “There was a big core fan turnout,” one of my insiders says, “so you can’t extrapolate to weekend numbers.” Nevertheless, it’s a great start.

Star Trek‘s $7 million figure is very good, but doesn’t signify a monster box office over the weekend, and I’m still feeling confident about my original $67 million prediction for Thursday through Sunday. Vote using the poll on the right sidebar to guess how much it will earn this weekend, and keep checking back over the weekend to see how Star Trek is doing!

Weekend Preview: Star Trek Will Definitely Take Off, But Will It Be At Warp-Speed?

May 8, 2009

Trekkies, the time for redemption has finally come. Gone are the days when people have no conception of who Captain Kirk or Uhura are. No longer will people scoff at you when you criticize the atrocity of a show that was Star Trek: Enterprise. No longer will you be the only ones at the office that understand the time-space bending properties of black holes. No longer will you be the only ones in the town with Vulcan haircuts. Okay, so maybe that last one isn’t true, but you get my point: Star Trek is cool again! Paramount has worked its tail off over the last few months to wash away the negative, nerdy, frankly lame connotations that the Star Trek franchise has developed over the last few year, and if there’s a film that’s going to succeed in doing so, it is this one. J.J. Abrams’ reimagined Star Trek is so beautifully produced and so lovingly handled. You can tell that everyone involved was really trying to make the best movie they could, and I think that decision will pay off big time. I saw it tonight, and it’s just awesome- the review will come soon. Paramount’s clearly confident about Star Trek, as they’ve advertised the heck out of it and already have a sequel greenlit, and its headed for the easy weekend win.

Comparing Star Trek to X-Men Origins: Wolverine is tricky. To be clear, I do not think that Star Trek is going to open as big as Wolverine did last weekend. Audiences are sure to be skeptical of the outer space franchise after 2002’s disastrous entry Star Trek: Nemesis (which earned a very sad $43 million) and the failed 2003 TV series, and many recession-affected adults are going to hold out to see this one is worth the $10 ticket. The debut of Star Trek actually reminds me a lot of 2005’s Batman Begins. After 1997’s embarrassingly bad Batman And Robin, audiences approached the reboot of the superhero franchise cautiously. Begins started with a humble $48 million during opening weekend on its way to $205 million overall. Star Trek, between its built-in audience and Paramount’s advertising, should be able to top Batman Begins‘ opening weekend, but it won’t hit Wolverine‘s level. That’s not to say that it won’t outgross the quickly falling Wolverine, because (mark my words) it will. Star Trek‘s word-of-mouth is going to be great, and the stellar reviews will convince adults to see the film. Star Trek is beaming into a very wide 3,849 theaters, and including the Thursday night showings, I’m predicting a $67 million weekend and a possible $230 million total, and even though it’s probably way too early to be wondering how big the sequel’s opening will be, I’m a box office analyst, and that’s just what I do! I’m already seeing numbers closer to $100 million…

You’ll have to excuse my extremely biased predictions for Star Trek. I’m still glowing after having watched the movie a few hours ago, and I’d be lying if I said that didn’t affect my judgment. I really do believe $230 million is possible, though! But getting back to reality, there’s only one other new release this weekend: Summit Entertainment’s Next Day Air. The poorly reviewed urban drug comedy is clearly targeting an African American audience, a group all too often underestimated by analysts. Next Day Air is only flying into 1,138 theaters, but I’m predicting a pretty solid cume of $7 million.

On Monday, X-Men Origins: Wolverine earned $5.4 million. On Tuesday, it fell 15% to $4.6 million. On Wednesday it fell another 13% to $4 million. What do these statistics tell us? That Wolverine is fading fast. The superhero flick that kicked off the summer is looking more and more like a flash-in-the-pan success than an actual financial win for Fox. With lackluster word-of-mouth, the fanboy effect, and the direct competition of Star Trek, I think Wolverine will fall by a big 68% to $27.2 million in its second weekend. That would put the actionfest around $130 million for ten days, but it’s got no shot at breaking $200 million anymore.

Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past, last weekend’s romantic comedy counter programming, should enjoy a solid hold this weekend. The Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner film was never going to be huge, but I don’t think Warner Brothers expected it to. A 40% drop would give Ghosts a $9.2 million weekend and $29 million overall. Here are my predictions for the Top 12:

Predicted Top 12 for May 8-10, 2009
1. Star Trek – $67 million
2. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $27.2 million
3. Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past – $9.2 million
4. Next Day Air – $7 million
5. Obsessed – $6 million
6. Monsters Vs. Aliens – $4.1 million
7. 17 Again – $3.9 million
8. The Soloist – $3.6 million
9. Hannah Montana The Movie – $2.8 million
10. Earth – $2.5 million
11. State Of Play – $1.9 million
12. Fighting – $1.8 million

How much do you think Star Trek will earn this weekend? Let me hear your predictions in the comments! (For real people, commenting is so easy! If you just click here, you’ll instantly be ready to type in your answer!)

Friday Estimates: Beyonce In Obsessed Earns $11 Million On Opening Day!

April 25, 2009

Steve Mason just posted Friday Estimates over at Big Hollywood, and I gotta say, this weekend is so Beyonce! Indeed, even I, who certainly had the highest weekend prediction among analysts of $20 million, undercut Obsessed, which earned a crazy good $11 million on Friday. The Era Of Easy Entertainment is real, people! It should be headed to a $26 million weekend, and an easy first place.

Everything else sort of failed to break out, and there will be lots of films in the $8-11 million range this weekend. Here are Mason’s estimates:

Exclusive Steve Mason Early Friday Estimates
1. Obsessed – $11M, $4,375 PTA, $11M cume
2.
Fighting – $3.72M, $1,610 PTA, $3.72M cume
3. 17 Again – $3.61M, $1,109 PTA, $31.91M cume
4.
The Soloist – $3.43M, $1,695 PTA, $3.43M cume
5. Earth – $2.61M, $1,447 PTA, $9.39M cume
6.
State of Play – $2.58M, $1,029 PTA, $22.12M cume
7.
Hannah Montana: The Movie – $2.21M, $685 PTA, $61.41M cume
8.
Fast & Furious – $1.86M, $524 PTA, $5.79M cume
9.
Monsters vs. Aliens – $1.8M, $536 PTA, $168.09M cume
10. Crank: High Voltage – $1M, $450 PTA, $10.11M cume