Archive for the ‘Prediction’ Category

Weekend Preview: Tyler Perry Can Do Good (Box Office Numbers) All By Himself…

September 11, 2009

I’m still getting back into the swing of full time blogging after my Summer hiatus, so please forgive me for this shorter Weekend Preview, but I’m going to fail out of school if I don’t limit my time spent on this post.  This week, I’ll just make three observations about each new release, along with predictions:

I Can Do Bad All By Myself – 2,255 theaters – $27 million
1. Tyler Perry always does well at the box office, especially when he appears in drag as the Madea character.
2. This weekend last year, Tyler Perry’s The Family The Preys opened to $17.4 million.
3. Film is being distributed by Perry’s longtime partner studio, Lionsgate, and it should do very well with urban audiences.

Sorority Row – 2,665 theaters – $17 million
1. This movie has some fascinating casting that is certainly targeting a young, MTV audience: the cast includes Jamie Chung, a former Real World castmember, Rumer Willis, the celebuspawn of Demi Moore and Bruce Willis, Audrina Patridge, star of The Hills, and Margo Harshman, who starred on Disney Channel’s Even Stevens back in the day.
2. For a teen slasher flick, reviews really aren’t that bad!
3. Advertising has been very strong, and the movie looks like tons of fun, primarily because it doesn’t appear to take itself too seriously

9 – 1,661 theaters – $11 million
1. Tim Burton served as producer on this film, and it’s got all of his typically macabre visual touches on it.
2. Though this film earned a very solid $3.1 million on Wednesday, the sheer geek-factor of it will lead to a good bit of frontloadedness, so I wouldn’t bet on huge weekend numbers.
3. I’m not gonna lie, I think this film just looks weird, and not in a very appealing way.

Whiteout – 2,745 theaters – $7 million
1. I had not heard of this film until Wednesday, when I finally saw an uninspiring commercial.
2. Reviews are bad. I mean, very bad.  I mean, worse than All About Steve‘s.
3. Kate Beckinsale, why do you feel you can only appear in dark, depressing settings like the Underworld or Antarctica.  You’re beautiful- come out into the light!

Box Office Predictions for September 11-13, 2009
1. I Can Do Bad All By Myself – $25 million
2. Sorority Row – $17 million
3. 9 – $11 million
4. Inglorious Basterds – $7.3 million
5. Whiteout – $7 million
6. All About Steve – $6.3 million
7. The Final Destination – $6 million
8. Gamer – $4.6 million
9. District 9 – $4.2 million
10. Julie And Julia – $3.8 million

What about you?  What are your predictions for this weekend?  Am I underestimating or overestimating Tyler Perry’s box office drawing ability?  And does anyone else think Sorority Row looks as shamelessly entertaining as I do?  Let me know in the comments!

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Star Trek: $7 Million From Thursday Showings!

May 8, 2009

Just pulled this little tidbit from Nikkie Finke over at DHD:

FRIDAY 10:50 AM: Sources tell me that Thursday screenings starting at 7 PM, including midnight shows, made approximately $7 million for Star Trek. “There was a big core fan turnout,” one of my insiders says, “so you can’t extrapolate to weekend numbers.” Nevertheless, it’s a great start.

Star Trek‘s $7 million figure is very good, but doesn’t signify a monster box office over the weekend, and I’m still feeling confident about my original $67 million prediction for Thursday through Sunday. Vote using the poll on the right sidebar to guess how much it will earn this weekend, and keep checking back over the weekend to see how Star Trek is doing!

Weekend Preview: Star Trek Will Definitely Take Off, But Will It Be At Warp-Speed?

May 8, 2009

Trekkies, the time for redemption has finally come. Gone are the days when people have no conception of who Captain Kirk or Uhura are. No longer will people scoff at you when you criticize the atrocity of a show that was Star Trek: Enterprise. No longer will you be the only ones at the office that understand the time-space bending properties of black holes. No longer will you be the only ones in the town with Vulcan haircuts. Okay, so maybe that last one isn’t true, but you get my point: Star Trek is cool again! Paramount has worked its tail off over the last few months to wash away the negative, nerdy, frankly lame connotations that the Star Trek franchise has developed over the last few year, and if there’s a film that’s going to succeed in doing so, it is this one. J.J. Abrams’ reimagined Star Trek is so beautifully produced and so lovingly handled. You can tell that everyone involved was really trying to make the best movie they could, and I think that decision will pay off big time. I saw it tonight, and it’s just awesome- the review will come soon. Paramount’s clearly confident about Star Trek, as they’ve advertised the heck out of it and already have a sequel greenlit, and its headed for the easy weekend win.

Comparing Star Trek to X-Men Origins: Wolverine is tricky. To be clear, I do not think that Star Trek is going to open as big as Wolverine did last weekend. Audiences are sure to be skeptical of the outer space franchise after 2002’s disastrous entry Star Trek: Nemesis (which earned a very sad $43 million) and the failed 2003 TV series, and many recession-affected adults are going to hold out to see this one is worth the $10 ticket. The debut of Star Trek actually reminds me a lot of 2005’s Batman Begins. After 1997’s embarrassingly bad Batman And Robin, audiences approached the reboot of the superhero franchise cautiously. Begins started with a humble $48 million during opening weekend on its way to $205 million overall. Star Trek, between its built-in audience and Paramount’s advertising, should be able to top Batman Begins‘ opening weekend, but it won’t hit Wolverine‘s level. That’s not to say that it won’t outgross the quickly falling Wolverine, because (mark my words) it will. Star Trek‘s word-of-mouth is going to be great, and the stellar reviews will convince adults to see the film. Star Trek is beaming into a very wide 3,849 theaters, and including the Thursday night showings, I’m predicting a $67 million weekend and a possible $230 million total, and even though it’s probably way too early to be wondering how big the sequel’s opening will be, I’m a box office analyst, and that’s just what I do! I’m already seeing numbers closer to $100 million…

You’ll have to excuse my extremely biased predictions for Star Trek. I’m still glowing after having watched the movie a few hours ago, and I’d be lying if I said that didn’t affect my judgment. I really do believe $230 million is possible, though! But getting back to reality, there’s only one other new release this weekend: Summit Entertainment’s Next Day Air. The poorly reviewed urban drug comedy is clearly targeting an African American audience, a group all too often underestimated by analysts. Next Day Air is only flying into 1,138 theaters, but I’m predicting a pretty solid cume of $7 million.

On Monday, X-Men Origins: Wolverine earned $5.4 million. On Tuesday, it fell 15% to $4.6 million. On Wednesday it fell another 13% to $4 million. What do these statistics tell us? That Wolverine is fading fast. The superhero flick that kicked off the summer is looking more and more like a flash-in-the-pan success than an actual financial win for Fox. With lackluster word-of-mouth, the fanboy effect, and the direct competition of Star Trek, I think Wolverine will fall by a big 68% to $27.2 million in its second weekend. That would put the actionfest around $130 million for ten days, but it’s got no shot at breaking $200 million anymore.

Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past, last weekend’s romantic comedy counter programming, should enjoy a solid hold this weekend. The Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner film was never going to be huge, but I don’t think Warner Brothers expected it to. A 40% drop would give Ghosts a $9.2 million weekend and $29 million overall. Here are my predictions for the Top 12:

Predicted Top 12 for May 8-10, 2009
1. Star Trek – $67 million
2. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $27.2 million
3. Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past – $9.2 million
4. Next Day Air – $7 million
5. Obsessed – $6 million
6. Monsters Vs. Aliens – $4.1 million
7. 17 Again – $3.9 million
8. The Soloist – $3.6 million
9. Hannah Montana The Movie – $2.8 million
10. Earth – $2.5 million
11. State Of Play – $1.9 million
12. Fighting – $1.8 million

How much do you think Star Trek will earn this weekend? Let me hear your predictions in the comments! (For real people, commenting is so easy! If you just click here, you’ll instantly be ready to type in your answer!)

Friday Estimates: Wolverine Slices Its Way To A $35 Million Friday

May 2, 2009

Steve Mason has posted his early Friday Estimates for May 1, 2009 over at Big Hollywood, and it looks like X-Men Origins: Wolverine has gotten off to a fantastic start with $34.75 million on its first day of release! I may have overestimated Wolverine‘s potential a tad bit, but it’s still headed for a phenomenal $85-90 million weekend, and a great start to the “Summer.” As a side note, I just saw the film (review can be read HERE), and it wasn’t great, but I totally had fun watching it. It definitely fits into the Era of Easy Entertainment. Also, Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past found a solid $6 million on Friday, and it should grab about $18 million over the frame, while Battle For Terra didn’t put up much of a fight at all, with a wretched $300,000 on Friday. Here are all the early Friday numbers:

Exclusive Steve Mason Early Friday Estimates
1.
X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $34.75M, $8,478 PTA, $34.75M cume
2. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past – $6M, $1,890 PTA, $6M
3. Obsessed – $4.2M, $1,671 PTA, $39M cume
4. 17 Again – $2.22M, $682 PTA, $44.36M cume
5. The Soloist – $1.7M, $836 PTA, $14.2M cume
6. Earth – $1.45M, $804 PTA, $19.11M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens – $1.41M, $537 PTA, $178M cume
8. Fighting – $1.4M, $608 PTA, $14.73M cume
9. State of Play – $1.28M, $527 PTA, $28.51M cume
10. Hannah Montana: The Movie – $1.1M, $390 PTA, $67.88M cume
*NEW – Battle For Terra – $300,000, $258 PTA, $300,000 cume

What do you think of this performance? And if you’ve seen Wolverine, did you like it? Let your inner animal rage in the comments!

Wolverine Earns $5 Million At Midnight Showings! Plus, What Everyone Else Predicted!

May 1, 2009

UPDATE: I’ve posted the full Friday Estimates here.

I just saw this posted over at Deadline Hollywood Daily. Nikki Finke tells us:

Friday 12:01 AM screenings at 2,000 theaters have Fox’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine opening to close to $5 million, which is amazing.

You know, I’m feeling pretty good about my $96 million prediction for Wolverine right about now, even though it is a bit higher than any other analysts. Here’s what everyone else is predicting for the blockbuster:

C.S. Stowbridge (The-Numbers) – “just north of $90 million”
Steve Mason (SlashFilm and Big Hollywood) – $92 million
Gitesh Pandya (Box Office Guru) – $85 million
Phil Contrino (Box Office Magazine) – $90 million
Reagen Sulewski (Box Office Prophets) – $91.3 million
Nicole Sperling (EW) – $85 million

Who will prove to be closest? Check back throughout the weekend for updates as they come!

Weekend Preview: Wolverine Slashes Into Theaters To The Start "Summer"

May 1, 2009

For whatever reason, somewhere over the course of the last few decades, a Hollywood executive must have thought it was a good idea to claim that the first week in May was the start of Summer movie season. Logical? No. Summer doesn’t actually begin for another 7 weeks, and I see no reason why the whole world should follow anything that Hollywood says, but for whatever reason, we’ve all bought into this lie, and its expected that the first film of the “Summer” (seriously, though, we aren’t even halfway through Spring!) will be huge. “Huge” would certainly be an appropriate term to describe this weekend last year, as Iron Man found $98.6 million in its opening weekend on its way to a $318 million finish. This year, the debut of X-Men Origins: Wolverine begs the question: Which is stronger, iron or adamantium? Also, Matthew McConaughey opens his latest romantic comedy, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past, and an animated movie I honestly know nothing about, Battle for Terra, hits screens.

Sorry Beyonce, but your brief reign atop the box office chart here ends with the opening of X-Men Origins: Wolverine. The rebellious Marvel character that Hugh Jackman popularized in the first three X-Men films gets his own treatment with Wolverine, which also serves as a foundation for the dozens of “Origins” spinoffs that Fox will instantly put into production if Wolverine breaks out. Advertising has been pervasive, and awareness is huge for Wolverine, and if the success of Fast And Furious is any indication, audiences are more than game for a loud, explosive action movie this year, and it doesn’t even matter if reviews aren’t great.. Some analysts have argued that audiences might be getting tired of Wolverine as a character after the trilogy of X-Men films, but in this Era of Easy Entertainment, comfortable familiarity is what sells, so I don’t think that should have a negative effect on box office. Wolverine is clawing its way into a whopping 4,099 theaters, and it should have no trouble trouncing the rest of the Top 12. Look for $96 million by the end of this weekend, and a greenlight for Magneto and Gambit by Monday.

With a film as huge as Wolverine hitting screens, everything else ends up seeming like an afterthought. Still, Warner Brothers may be able to find a decent gross for the rom-com Ghosts of Girlfirends Past, which stars Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner. This is a classic example of counter-programming, and as The Devil Wears Prada showed us in 2006 when it debuted to $27 million against Superman Returns, there’s more than enough room for two big openers in one weekend. Personally, I don’t understand why people like McConaughey so much. He has always come across to me as smarmy, cocky, and dumb. Ladies, if that’s what you’re looking for in a man, then I’ve sadly got little to offer you. Despite my disapproval, though, McConaughey is a proven draw, and Garner makes for a likable romantic lead. Reviews are saying that the fantasy comedy is lacking in originality and humor, which is pretty much consistent with every other romantic comedy released these days, but advertising has been strong, and this provides women with an option other than Wolverine. Popping up in 3,175 theaters, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past could nab $20 million this weekend.

What the heck is Battle For Terra? I’ve seen literally no advertising for this Lionsgate release. With a little cyber-sleuthing, though, I’ve gathered that it’s a 3-D sci-fi animated film about a space war between aliens and humans. Reviews are only alright, there is zero awareness for this title, and similarly themed Monsters Vs. Aliens, even in its sixth week, will outshadow this one for sure. Terra zaps itself into just 1,159 theaters this weekend, and a gross of $3 million should result.

Among holdovers, we’ll probably see some larger-than-usual drops due to Wolverine‘s debut. Last week’s champ, Obsessed, which was destined to be front-loaded anyway, will probably fall by a steep 60% to about $11.5 million. Fighting has a lot working against it. It’s a teen film, which always signifies a big second weekend drop, and it’s an action film, which looks a lot less cool than Wolverine. The Channing Tatum feature might find $4.5 million. It will be interesting to see if Jamie Foxx’s non-sequitur appearance on American Idol this week will soften the second weekend drop for The Soloist. Still, unless there is some sort of divine intervention, The Soloist (with its $60 million pricetag) won’t be considered a hit. Give it $4.7 million as well. Disney’s re-edited version of the popular Planet Earth miniseries, Earth, actually has the best chance for a solid holdover this weekend. Appealing to families and intellectuals alike, Earth has been doing well during the week, and it might find $5.5 million over the weekend frame.

Predicted Top 12 For May 1-3, 2009
1. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $96 million
2. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past – $20 million
3. Obsessed – $11.5 million
4. 17 Again – $6 million
5. Earth – $5.5 million
6. Monsters Vs. Aliens – $5.5 million
7. The Soloist – $4.7 million
8. Fighting – $4.5 million
9. State Of Play – $4 million
10. Hannah Montana The Movie – $3.6 million
11. Fast And Furious – $3.3 million
12. Battle For Terra – $3 million

How much do you think Wolverine will earn at the box office this weekend? Can it break the $100 million barrier? Put your predictions in the comments!

Weekend Preview: Beyonce Fights The Earth Solo, And Wins!

April 24, 2009

In case you haven’t noticed, The Box Office Junkie looks a little bit different than it did a few days ago. I switched the template from two columns to three columns, and I hope you like the change! It just makes distribution of widgets and advertisements so much more manageable. Anyway, all the formatting and html tinkering has left me with very little time to get this weeks Weekend Preview together, so excuse me if it doesn’t measure up. At least it will be better than last week, when I just skipped this column altogether! Let’s just tackle the newcomers.

Obsessed – $20 million
Confession: I’m kind of obsessed (no pun intended!) with Beyoncé. I have this awkward habit of saying, “That’s so Beyoncé” whenever something awesome happens. It all started when my friends and I decided to start saying, “That’s so Raven,” to see if we could make a new, trendy phrase catch on. It didn’t, and after a few months I found myself constantly saying, “That’s so Beyoncé.” Oh well. Regardless, the former Destiny’s Child lead singer is pretty much a stud at everything she does, and it looks like she’s made a very wise career move with Obsessed, a woman-gone-mad drama also starring Ali Larter. This thriller has a lot going for it: The female leads should draw in women. The fact that the female leads wrestle on the floor should draw in men. Having black leads (Beyoncé’s husband is played by Idris Elba) will draw in ethnic audiences. The jury’s out on reviews, since it wasn’t screened for critics, but the Screen Gems feature has had a very strong marketing campaign, and frankly, I think it looks pretty great. Kicking and screaming onto 2,514 theaters, I’m giving Obsessed a solid $20 million weekend.

Earth – $12 million
I’m kind of over the whole “going green” thing. It’s just a little bit too liberal-Hollywood, self-important, politcally correct for me to buy the whole fad. Still, never willing to miss a moneymaking opportunity, Disney is tapping into the trend, releasing Earth, which is essentially a film crafted from some of the clips that weren’t used for Planet Earth. It had a great Wednesday debut of $4 million out of 1,804 theaters, but that was with the Earth Day boost. For the regular weekend, I’ll give Earth $12 million, which is about three times higher than what I would’ve predicted last week. Ugh. I guess all the “going green” stuff isn’t going away any time soon.

The Soloist – $11 million
Robert Downey Jr. and Jamie Foxx teamed up for this inspirational drama about a struggling, but extraordinarily talented, homeless musician. Director Joe Wright (Pride And Prejudice and Atonement) is receiving some mixed reviews for this, though the lead actors are receiving much praise. This musical project sort of reminds me of 2007’s August Rush, which audiences lapped up like liquid lollipops, and with a lauch into 2,024 theaters, I’m seeing a modest $11 million weekend, with some decent legs after that.

Fighting – $8.5 million
I’m not a girl. I have never watched Step Up. I don’t know to what extent teenage girls are willing to flock to the theater just to see Channing Tatum shirtless and physical. Thus, I reserve the right to be very wrong about this prediction. I also reserve the right to gloat if I’m correct. This looks almost exactly the same as last month’s teen fighting film, Never Back Down, which debuted to $8.6 million. This has a better lead actor, but it also has Terrence Howard, who is box office poison, so I’ll give it a similar $8.5 million over the weekend frame.

What do you all think? What will win the box office race this weekend? Also, did you know that the last week in April is historically one of the toughest frames for a film to debut in, since it falls right before the massive first week in May? Speak your mind in the comments!

Friday Estimates: Hannah Montana Earns $15 Million On First Day! Biggest Easter Weekend Ever?

April 11, 2009

Steve Mason just posted his exclusive Friday Estimates over at Big Hollywood, and it looks like Hannah Montana The Movie could be headed for a $40+ million weekend! Of course, it will probably be front-loaded, as hordes of tweenage girls rushed out to see the film on opening night, so a $35 million gross seems reasonable. That would put the Disney film as the second-best Easter weekend ever, behind only Scary Movie 4‘s $40 million bow. Between the strength of Hannah Montana and Fast And Furious, which should grab about $28 million over the frame, and Monsters Vs. Aliens, which might find $20 million, we could be looking at the best Easter weekend box office of all time. In less exciting news, Seth Rogen’s Observe And Report underwhelmed with just $4.3 million on Friday, and Dragonball: Evolution flat-out bombed with just $1.9 million. The should find $12 million and $4.5 million, respectively. Here are Steve Mason’s early estimates (how does he get them so fast?!):

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Hanna Montana The Movie (Disney) – $15M, $4,811 PTA, $15M cume
2. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $10M, $2,880 PTA, $99.25M cume
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.1M, $1,958 PTA, $126.5M cume
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $4.25M, $1,558 PTA, $4.25M cume
5. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $1.7M, $625 PTA, $42.28M cume
6. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.11M, $798 PTA, $54.7M cume
7. Knowing (Summit) – $1.95M, $667 PTA, $63.28M cume
8. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $1.92M, $880 PTA, $1.92M cume
9. Adventureland (Miramax) – $1.1M, $586 PTA, $9.11M cume
10. Duplicity (Universal) – $750,000, $382 PTA, $34.6M cume

What do you think of all this box office madness? Did you think Hannah would break out this big, and how much do you think it will finish with this weekend? Let me know in the comments!

What’s Everyone Else Predicting? Box Office Analysts Unite!

April 10, 2009

It’s high time that someone took the initiative and united all the different box office analysts out there! So many great sites are dedicated to studying the trends of the film industry, and I thought it might be nice to put together a chart of all our various box office predictions each week and see how we compare to one another. I’ve placed some links at the top of the chart, so you can read everyone else’s weekend forecasts. What do you think of this idea?

Box Office Analyst Predictions
Film
Title
The Box
Office Junkie
Box Office
Magazine
The-
Numbers
Box Office
Prophets
Box Office
Guru
Slash
Film
Fast And Furious $30.0 M $31.0 $29.5 $27.5 $32.0 $30.0
Hannah Montana The Movie $27.0 M $29.0 $25.0 $22.0 $26.0 $24.6
Monsters Vs. Aliens $20.0 M $21.0 $18.0 $19.6 $21.0 $21.0
Observe And Report $18.0 M $16.0 $15.0 $18.0 $14.0 $19.5
Dragonball: Evolution $11.0 M $7.5 $6.0 $5.0 $8.0 $10.7
I Love You, Man $5.0 M $5.6 $4.4 $4.9
The Haunting In Connecticut $4.8 M $5.3 $4.6 $5.1
Knowing $4.7 M $5.8 $4.7 $4.8
Adventureland $3.5 M $3.9 $2.9 $3.4
Duplicity $2.3 M $2.4 $2.4
Sunshine Cleaning $1.9 M $2.3
Race To Witch Mountain $1.6 M

Weekend Preview: Hannah Montana And Seth Rogen Will Try To Topple Fast And Furious Over The Easter Frame

April 10, 2009

Every once in a while, you’ll see a weekend frame that has two debuting films for which it would be absolutely awesome if you could switch their casts. The last time I remember feeling that way was on October 24-26, 2008, when Saw V and High School Musical 3 both premiered, and this weekend I feel the same way, as Disney’s Miley Cyrus vehicle Hannah Montana The Movie and Seth Rogen’s Observe And Report hit theaters. Those two films will take on reigning champion Fast And Furious in the battle for the Easter crown, and I don’t mean the religious kind. Dragonball: Evolution is also debuting, but it’s not looking like it will make much of an impact.

You may have read a certain devilish post by my unfortunately misguided colleague, Reed, about the inevitable apocalypse that will accompany the debut of Disney’s Hannah Montana The Movie. Well, I’m a bit more optimistic about the situation, so allow me to stick up for the tween sensation. I’ve never picked on Disney and their veritable pantheon of singing/dancing/acting stars like Zac Efron, Selena Gomez, or Miley Cyrus. Considering the sexed-up alternatives (Justin Timberlake, Christina Aguilera, Britney Spears, etc), I’d rather see my little sisters fawn over the clean-cut kids in High School Musical or Hannah Montana any day of the week. Furthermore, I really do think that Disney finds the best of the best when it comes to talent. Say what you will about the company, but they’ve got a pretty great track record when it comes to finding the most talented children (Justin Timberlake, Christina Aguilera, Britney Spears, etc), and despite her occasionally grating public persona, Miley Cyrus is a great entertainer that audiences clearly connect with. She seems to me like a perfectly normal 16 year-old, and I don’t think she’s done anything that any other girl her age hasn’t. Plus, she gets major respect points from me for actually singing live!

Okay, now that I’m done defending Miley Cyrus, let’s focus on her equally (more?) famous alter ego, Hannah Montana, and her chances at the box office this weekend. The Disney Channel has never had a show as successful as Hannah Montana, which has become an industry in its own right. Dolls, video games, soundtracks, concerts, 3-D concert movies- it all just keeps making money! Last year, Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best Of Both Worlds Concert Tour opened to $31 million dollars, but that was with $15 tickets, the 3-D gimmick, and the idea that the film would only be running for one week. Hannah Montana The Movie will be lucky to achieve that high of a number, but it should still find a solid debut. In 2003, Disney’s Hilary Duff vehicle, The Lizzie McGuire Movie earned $17 million in its opening weekend, but Hannah Montana is way bigger than Lizzie McGuire ever was. Marketing has been strong, excitement is high among the core fanbase, and reviews are fine, though I can’t think of a more review-proof film than this one. Rolling into 3,111 theaters, parents will be happen to take their daughters to a film that is guaranteed to be sweet and non-controversial. Give it $28 million over the weekend.

On the completely opposite end of the spectrum is Warner Brothers’ Observe And Report, which looks essentially like an edgy, crude, funny version of Paul Blart: Mall Cop. Starring Seth Rogen as a police officer who takes his mall security very seriously, the film also features the wonderful comedienne Anna Faris. Critics are split on the film, which is currently sitting with a 59% rating at RT. Some are praising Observe And Report for its ballsy approach to comedy, while others disapprove of its blatant meanness and lack of a moral. Historically, audiences prefer conventional humor, and this shounds to me like a film that’s tough to love. Still, Rogen has considerable drawing power (I attribute the underwhelming $31 million finish of Zack And Miri Make A Porno mostly to the title of the film), and other male-oriented comedies like Role Models, Pineapple Express, and I Love You, Man have been successful lately. Debuting in 2,727 theaters, Observe And Report might apprehend about $18 million this weekend.

The final new film debuting this weekend is Fox’s Dragonball: Evolution, which actually seemed like a good idea two years ago. I’ve never seen a film lose steam quite the way that Dragonball has, and excitement over its production has steadily decreased in the past year. Based on the popular TV show, which was in turn based on the popular manga series, Evolution tells the story of a group of powerful individuals all vying to control the Universe by possessing mystical objects called “dragonballs.” Sound silly? That’s because it is. While the TV show definitely created a built-in audience for this flick, bad reviews and general disinterest are going to keep this from becoming a fanboy favorite. The lowish 2,181 theater count doesn’t reveal that Fox has a hue amount of cofidence in Dragonball: Evolution, and I think Goku and the gang should probably come in with about $11 million this weekend.

Fast And Furious should race to the top spot (I made a palindrome!) again this weekend. After its record-breaking $70.9 million debut, it has decelerated pretty quickly throughout the week, and a drop of about 60% seems in order for the actionfest. But at this point, it’s all gravy for the studio, and Paul Walker and Vin Diesel have to be thanking their agents for convincing them to come back to the franchise. Give the Universal effort $30 million, with Hannah Montana hot on its heels. Meanwhile, Monsters Vs. Aliens should benefit from the family friendly nature of Easter weekend, and see a drop of about 35-40%, which would give it $20 million over three days and $138 million overall. It should be a great weekend at the box office! Here are my full predictions:

Predicted Top 12 For April 10-12, 2009
1. Fast And Furious – $30 million
2. Hannah Montana The Movie – $27 million
3. Monsters Vs. Aliens – $20 million
4. Observe And Report – $18 million
5. Dragonball: Evolution – $11 million
6. I Love You, Man – $5 million
7. The Haunting In Connecticut – $4.8 million
8. Knowing – $4.7 million
9. Adventureland – $3.5 million
10. Duplicity – $2.3 million
11. Sunshine Cleaning – $1.8 million
12. Race To Witch Mountain – $1.6 million

Am I totally off base or right on the money with my predictions? And am I crazy for defending Hannah Montana? Let me hear your thoughts and predictions in the comments!