Archive for the ‘Paranormal Activity’ Category

Poll: Which 2009 Release Had The Most Surprisngly Awesome Box Office Run?

January 14, 2010

Let’s try something new: a poll!  Thursdays are the day of the week when I usually do a box office analysis article, and this week I’m answering a request from Rohan (sidenote: I’m reading The Two Towers right now, and I have a whole new appreciation for the word “Rohan”) to go take a look at the biggest box office surprises of 2009.  I’ve narrowed the choices down to seven, and believe it or not, Avatar is not included!  I wanted to showcase those films that exceeded expectations in a big way, so movies that everyone knew would be blockbusters aren’t really on the list.  Check below to read my seven cases as to why each movie deserves your vote, and then go ahead and vote in the poll!  If your ideal choice isn’t listed, then let me know what you think in the comments.  Can’t wait to see the results!

The Blind Side ($220 million so far)

Why it deserves your vote: Because the little $29 million feature opened very well against that  behemoth known as New Moon, earning $34 million in its opening weekend. After that, the feel-good movie showed some incredible legs over the holidays, earning a stunning $220 million, over 6.5 times as much as its opening weekend!  The crazy thing is, it’s still not done, either!

Star Trek ($257.7 million)
Why it deserves your vote: Sure, this flick had a big $150 million budget, but the Star Trek franchise was dead in the water when J.J. Abrams rebooted it.  The critical darling introduced this intergalactic adventure to a brand new generation, and earned a whole lot of money on the way!

Paranormal Activity ($107.9 million)
Why it deserves your vote: This independent horror movie was made for $15,000.  Yes, just $15,000.  After sitting on the shelf for years, Paramount decided to release the film in a few theaters.  Then they started an online marketing campaign.  Then the campaign went viral.  Then Paramount added it to a few more theaters.  Then it made a shocking amount of money. Then everyone started talking about it.  Then Paramount put it into wide release.  Then it killed Saw VI.  Then it broke $100 million.  Then it was declared an all-out phenomenon. 

Taken ($145 million)
Why it deserves your vote: Because it was a simple, $25 million action film starring Liam Neeson, who was hardly an A-list box office draw.  I’m sure Fox expected it to do some solid enough business, and then make a little bit extra on DVD, but they got way more than they bargained for. The film opened to a solid $24 million, and it connected with audiences in a huge way.  The thriller surprised everyone over the course of the next two months, dropping by tiny amounts on its way to $145 million.

The Hangover ($277.3 million)
Why it deserves your vote: Warner Brothers launched one of the biggest comedies of all time out of nothing.  No A-list stars, no huge budget, no family-friendly premise, no super-anticipatory buzz.  The R-rated comedy opened to a fantastic $44 million over the first weekend in June, and then chugged along all Summer on its way to $277 million.

Inglorious Basterds ($120.5 million)
Why it deserves your vote: Because it made a rather unsavory WWII story accessible to audiences, and actually gave The Weinstein Company a hit!

Paul Blart: Mall Cop ($146.3 million)
Why it deserves your vote: Because, against all odds, the wretchedly reviewed comedy somehow caught on with audiences, launching the Era Of Easy Entertainment in the process.  Who’d of thunk that this $26 million January release would become a box office star?

Go ahead and place your vote in the poll below:

Which 2009 Release Had The Most Surprisingly Great Box Office Run?(polls)

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Weekend Preview: 2012 Hopes To To Blow Up (Literally And Figuratively)

November 13, 2009

Welcome to the Weekend Preview!  This week, there’s just two new wide releases, and only one of them is a true wide release.  Sony’s 2012 should be huge, as should Precious (due to its expansion) while Focus’ Pirate Radio should be small.  How big and how small?  Watch the video above to find out, and then check out my full predictions below, which include last week’s openers: A Christmas Carol, which should see a small drop this weekend and every weekend until Christmas, The Men Who Stare At Goats, and The Fourth Kind.  I’m guessing The Box will fall out of the top ten.  Check them out:

Box Office Predictions for November 13-15, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 2012 3,404 $57 million
2 A Christmas Carol 3,683 $19 million
3 This Is It 3,037 $8 million
4 The Men Who Stare At Goats 2,453 $6.5 million
5 The Fourth Kind 2,530 $5.5 million
6 Precious 174 $5 million
7 Paranormal Activity 2,712 $4.2 million
8 Couples Retreat 2,507 $4.1 million
9 Pirate Radio 882 $4 million
10 Law Abiding Citizen 2,071 $3.8 million

Weekend Fix: Christmas Comes Early This Year! Or Does It?

November 9, 2009

Weekend Preview: Scrooge, Aliens, Men, Goats, And A Magic Box

November 6, 2009

This weekend is the first full weekend in November, and as the weather’s getting colder, the box office is getting hotter.  Four new wide releases hit screens today, and the box office should see some solid depth over the next few days.  Disney, as part of its crusade to turn Christmas into a two-month-long event, is releasing A Christmas Carol, and it will certainly win the weekend.  I don’t talk about it too much in the video because I wrote a rather epic analysis of it yesterday.  Read it here.  Also entering theaters this weekend is Universal’s alien abduction film, The Fourth Kind, Overture’s war satire, The Men Who Stare At Goats, and Warner Brothers’ psychological mind-bender, The Box.  Watch the video above to get my take on their box office prospects, and then check the chart below for my full box office predictions.  Let me know what your predictions are in the comments!

Box Office Predictions for November 6-8, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 A Christmas Carol 3,683 $40 million
2 The Fourth Kind 2,529 $13 million
3 This Is It 3,481 $12 million
4 Paranormal Activity 2,558 $9.5 million
5 The Box 2,635 $9 million
6 The Men Who Stare At Goats 2,443 $7 million
7 Law Abiding Citizen 2,474 $4.5 million
8 Couples Retreat 2,846 $4 million
9 Where The Wild Things Are 2,756 $2.9 million
10 Saw VI 2,091 $2.5 million

Weekend Fix: This Is It Takes #1 At The Box Office; Paranormal Activity Continues Its Rampage

November 2, 2009

Friday Estimates: Michael Jackson’s This Is It Doesn’t Live Up To Hype

October 31, 2009

Michael Jackson’s concert film, This Is It, earned $7.4 million on its opening Wednesday, and then followed that up with a steep 50% drop to $3.7 million on Thursday.  Obviously, this is going to be a very frontloaded film, and it will certainly undercut most everyone’s expectations, which had This Is It pegged at earning about $50 million in its first five days.  Now, a five day total of about $30 million seems more likely. 

UPDATE: Friday box office results are now in, and This Is It earned $7.5 million.  Just as the Wednesday/Thursday figures were frontloaded, so should the weekend figures be.  A $20 million weekend seems likely for Jackson’s posthumous documentary, which is far below what Sony was hoping for. Perhaps the film was hurt by the fact that Jackson lacked a large fanbase among young people. Perhaps the film will hold up better than expected over the rest of the weekend. We’ll have to wait and wee, but I wouldn’t count on it.  Paranormal Activity found another solid $6 million on Friday, and it should do very well on Halloween. Its performance will be good for second place, and the horror film that can’t be stopped should find $17 million over the weekend frame.  Meanwhile, Paranormal‘s main victim, Saw VI, could only manage $2 million on Friday, and it’s looking at an awful $6 million second weekend. Keep reading for the very early Friday Estimates:

Friday Estimates for October 30, 2009
1. This Is It – $7.5 million
2. Paranormal Activity – $6 million
3. Couples Retreat – $2.4 million
4. Law Abiding Citizen – $2.4 million
5. Where The Wild Things Are – $2.2 million
6. Saw VI – $2 million

Weekend Preview: This Is It For Michael Jackson’s This Is It

October 30, 2009

Only one new release this weekend, and that is Sony’s Michael Jackson’s This Is It, the documentary about Michael Jackson’s final hours as he prepared for his latest tour.  Watch the video above (you’ll see me getting musical!) to get my prediction for This Is It‘s box office potential.  The rest of the chart should largely look the same as last week.  Paranormal Activity will see a soft drop, as Paramount is adding 457 theaters to its count.  $100 million is all but assured for Paranormal at this point.  Law Abiding Citizen and Couples Retreat will continue their impressive runs with small decreases, while Where The Wild Things Are and (to a greater extent) Saw VI will fall hard.  Read on for my full predictions for this Halloween weekend…

Box Office Predictions for October 30 – November 1, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 Michael Jackson’s This Is It 3,481 $35 million
2 Paranormal Activity 2,402 $15 million
3 Law Abiding Citizen 2,764 $8 million
4 Where The Wild Things Are 2,754 $7 million
5 Couples Retreat 3,027 $6.7 million
6 Saw VI 3,036 $5.8 million
7 Astro Boy 3,020 $4 million
8 The Stepfather 2,346 $3.8 million
9 The Vampire’s Assistant 2,754 $3.2 million
10 Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 2,322 $3.2 million

(Lack Of) Weekend Fix: Paranormal Steals Saw VI’s Activity

October 27, 2009

One of the things I remember most about playing basketball growing up was the warm ups before each game.  All the players are scattered about the key, shooting basketballs up at the boards.  Many times, the balls all seemed to reach the basket at almost exactly the same time, as if we players had been planned to shoot together at a precise moment, and when one ball swished through the net, they usually all did.  However, every once in a while when this phenomenon occurred, the first ball to reach the hoop would miss, and suddenly every shot was a brick.  None of them would go in.  That’s how this week has been.

Usually, things go swimmingly.  My life’s proverbial jump shots usually sail through the net.  Of course, they occasionally fall to the ground, but you know, things are pretty good for me.  This weekend, however, was tough.  Though it was awesome, it was the perfect storm of busyness in my life.  I had a huge football game to attend on Saturday, two events that I had planned and had to run on Sunday, and two projects due on Tuesday.  Add in the fact that I think I might have the flu (gasp!), and you can see why the Weekend Fix is delayed.  I’m sorry, but I’m just going to have to cut my losses and skip the Weekend Fix this week. I’m really sorry about this, but you can go ahead and read the recap from my other favorite box office website here. Otherwise, the blog should operate normally.  All you really need to know is this:

Paranormal Activity is lightning in a bottle.  Saw VI got unlucky this year.  It looks like people want a horror movie at Halloween more than they want Saw.

Friday Estimates: Paranormal Activity Kills The Saw Franchise?

October 24, 2009

This is not good news for the Saw franchise.  Saw VI could only open to $7 million on Friday.  Considering how frontloaded this franchise historically is, this mean were looking at an $18 million weekend.  That’s WAY down from the standard $30 million openings of the Saw franchise.  There’s not great news for The Vampire’s Assistant ($2.3 million), Astro Boy ($2 million), or Amelia ($1.3 million) either.  Paranormal Activity looks like it will take the top spot after a $7.5 million Friday, and it should earn pretty much exactly what I predicted with $21.5 million over the weekend.  In other news, Where The Wild Things Are dropped a huge 63% from last Friday to $4.4 million, and it should pull in $13-14 million over the weekend.  That’s a huge drop for a movie that targeted kids and families… Law Abiding Citizen, meanwhile, fell just 45% to $4.2 million, and it should find $12.5 million over the weekend.  Here are the very early Friday Estimates:

Early Friday Estimates for October 23, 2009
1. Paranormal Activity – $7.5 million
2. Saw VI – $7 million
3. Where The Wild Things Are – $4.4 million
4. Law Abiding Citizen – $4.2 million
5. Couples Retreat – $3.7 million
6. The Vampire’s Assistant – $2.3 million
7. The Stepfather – $2.1 million
8. Astro Boy – $2 million
9. Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs – $1.5 million
10. Zombieland – $1.3 million
11. Amelia – $1.3 million

Weekend Preview: Can Paranormal Activity Scare Away Saw VI’s Audience?

October 23, 2009

Sorry this post is a few hours late, but between Blogger shutting down, a dentist appointment, my internet router crashing, and being generally sick and stuffy, this really is the fastest I could’ve gotten this posted!  Anyway, it’s going to be another busy weekend at the box office in what’s shaping up to be a very healthy October.  New releases include Saw VI, Astro Boy, Cirque Du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant, and Amelia, and Paranormal Activity is getting a major national expansion.  Watch the video above for my box office predictions for these movies, and then check below for my full prediction chart.  It should be a busy, fun weekend at the movies!

Box Office Predictions for October 23-25, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 Saw VI 3,036 $25 million
2 Paranormal Activity 1,945 $21.5 million
3 Where The Wild Things Are 3,735 $16 million
4 The Vampire’s Assistant 2,754 $12 million
5 Law Abiding Citizen 2,890 $11 million
6 Astro Boy 3,014 $10 million
7 Couples Rereat 3,074 $9 million
8 The Stepfather 2,734 $5.2 million
9 Amelia 818 $5 million
10 Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 2,741 $4.8 million