Archive for the ‘Opening Weekend’ Category

Friday Estimates: Avatar Finds $27 Million On First Day, But May Struggle For Rest Of Weekend

December 20, 2009

I’m sorry.  I know I said I’d be backed to regular posting, but my house at school got broken into and robbed last night, and that’s distracted me for the better part of the day.  I wish I had been more present for the first half of this, one of the biggest weekends of the year, and I apologize, but sometimes life throws you a curveball.  And that’s exactly what life is throwing at the box office this weekend.  After a strong opening day of $27 million for Avatar, a massive snowstorm hit the East coast, which will certainly limit box office prospects for the rest of the weekend.  Avatar should end up with about $70 million for the weekend, and based on the superb word-of-mouth, and the Christmas holiday, in which all students are now out of school, we’re looking at a spectacle that’s sure to have great legs in the coming weeks.  When it comes to Did You Hear About The Morgans? the resounding answer from American audiences is “No.”  The romantic comedy only managed to find $2.4 million yesterday.  Keep on reading for the full Friday chart, and then check back here tomorrow for the Weekend Fix!  I haven’t made a video in over a week, so I’m excited!

Friday Estimates for December 18, 2009
1. Avatar – $27 million
2. The Princess And The Frog – $3.4 million
3. The Blind Side – $3.2 million
4. Did You Hear About The Morgans? – $2.4 million
5. The Twilight Saga: New Moon – $1.4 million
6. Invictus – $1.3 million
7. A Christmas Carol – $951,000
8. Up In The Air – $925,000
9. Brothers – $880,000
10. Old Dogs – $709,000

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Weekend Fix: With New Moon’s $142.8M Debut, Vampires Are One Step Closer To World Domination

November 22, 2009

Weekend Fix: Star Trek Prospers With $76.5 Million On Opening Weekend! Will It Live Long?

May 10, 2009

UPDATE #3: WHAT?! This post has 22 comments?! That’s AWESOME! Keep ’em coming! I finally got the Weekend Fix posted, so I hope you enjoy!
UPDATE #3.5:
Okay, Weekend Actuals just came in, and Star Trek exceeded expectations even more! Craziness! – Grady

Weekend figures just arrived, and Star Trek’s weekend gross is a sweet $75.2 million! ($79.2 million including Thursday!) On Saturday, Star Trek pulled in another $27.2 million, a 1% increase from Friday. Clearly, this film is reaching a much larger audience than just the old Trekkies. Otherwise, we would have seen a fanboy-style dip on Saturday. The Sunday drop to $21 million was quite good, as well, and it shows that good Friday and Saturday word-of-mouth prevented any dip due to Mother’s Day. It appears that Paramount’s advertising got its job done, and audiences are connecting with the raved-about reboot. Also, you should know that in the confusing shuffle of whether or not to count the Thursday showings in the weekend gross of Star Trek, it looks like the accepted figure is that Star Trek made $4 million during Thursday showings. I suppose that the other $3 million earned on Thursday were from showimtes close enough to midnight that they’re just being counted as Friday shows. This is how the weekend looked:

Thursday: $4 million
Friday: $26.9 million
Saturday: $27.2 million (+1.3%)
Sunday: $21.1 million (-22%)
TOTAL: $79.2 million

Bravo, J.J. Abrams! You’ve successfully brought the franchise back to life! Indeed, with a sizzling $21,190 venue average over the three day weekend, 95% positive reviews, and an amazing $79.2 million over three and a half days, look for Star Trek to stick around for weeks to come. Batman Begins, a reboot that compares to Star Trek well, opened to $48 million on the way to $205 million. That’s a 4.27 multiplier. If Star Trek could manage that kind of a multiplier, we’re looking at a $300 million hit. Due to the sci-fi nature of the story, I don’t know how likely that is, but as good word spreads and Trekkies line up again and again to see this, I’m willing to go on record saying that I think $250 million is a likely achievement for Star Trek. It could surpass that, but I certainly think it will make it there. We’ll have to wait and see!

Next, we have X-Men Origins: Wolverine. Isn’t it weird to think that last week, this film is all anyone could talk about? With the Enterprise now clearly in its way, though, Wolverine feels like a distant memory, and its harsh second weekend drop isn’t helping out. This weekend, Wolverine fell a massive 69% to $26.4 million (exactly what I predicted!), for a ten day total of $129 million. To be clear: this is not good. The Fox film cost $150 million to make, and that’s not including the HUGE costs of advertising and reshoots. Following its current trajectory, $170 million seems like a likely finish for Wolverine. So are you satisfied with its gross? You do the math. Perhaps Fox should’ve taken a page out of Paramount’s book and spent a longer time crafting a great movie, because even though Trek didn’t open as big as Wolverine, it’ll be sticking around a lot longer!

Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past performed like a champ this weekend. After last week’s slightly underwhelming $15.2 million debut, the Matthew McConaughey romantic comedy, fell just 33% to $10.3 million this week. Ghosts currently sits with $30.1 million, but with a few more drops like this over the next few weeks, Warner Brothers could have a nice $50-55 million little hit on their hands.

Meanwhile, Obsessed has already exceeded that! With a 46% drop to $6.6 million, the Beyonce/Ali Larter catfight film is once again validating my theory about the Era of Easy Entertainment, and after seventeeen days, Obsessed grossed $56.2 million. (That’s about one dollar for every hair that got ripped out of Beyonce’s weave during the making of this film!) The cheap thriller will be remembered as a solid Spring success.

The only other new opener this weekend was Next Day Air, an urban drug comedy starring Donald Faison. The Summit film failed to catch on with audiences or critics, and it only managed to pull in $4.1 million during its opening frame.

Finally, I just want to give a shout out to Monsters Vs. Aliens. The Dreamworks film from way back in March has performed admirably after its $58 million debut. Currently Monsters has multiplied its opening by about 3.2, giving it a $186 million total. Big international sales as well as DVD revenue will push this film, budgeted at $175 million, into the black.

Top 12 Actuals For May 8-10
# Movie Title 3-Day Gross % Change AVG. Total
1 Star Trek $75,204,289 New $21,190 $79,204,289
2 X-Men Origins: Wolverine $26,408,288 -69% $6,438 $129,032,435
3 Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past $10,258,141 -33% $3,231 $30,054,386
4 Obsessed $6,560,266 -46% $2,521 $56,207,576
5 17 Again $4,232,422 -33% $1,458 $53,994,515
6 Next Day Air $4,111,043 New $3,613 $4,111,043
7 The Soloist $3,949,430 -30% $1,890 $23,845,177
8 Monsters Vs. Aliens $3,260,440 -44% $1,492 $186,774,042
9 Earth $2,666,219 -39% $1,486 $26,264,242
10 Hannah Montana The Movie $2,193,043 -47% $953 $73,861,795
11 Fighting $2,010,075 -50% $1,040 $20,453,095
12 State Of Play $1,918,295 -48% $1,245 $33,986,760
All Numbers Provided By Exhibitor Relations Co.

This weekend, the Top 12 films grossed a fantastic $142.7 million, a 21.3% increase over the same weekend last year! Year-to-date, box office revenue is up 14% and attendance is up by 12%!

Weekend Fix: Wolverine Starts Off With $87 Million, Leads A Solid Weekend At The Box Office

May 3, 2009

“Summer” is here! It was a very great weekend at the box office, as X-Men Origins: Wolverine started off very strong, Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past had a smaller, but still solid debut, and a slew of films landed in the $5 million range for the weekend. Alas, Battle For Terra, a movie that no one even knew about remained unknown over the weekend, with one of the worst debuts for a wide release in history, but the Top 12 at the box office was still able to stay exactly flat with last year. Check out the full report:

Gosh, what is there even left to write about Wolverine? I feel like it’s all I’ve done over the past few days. The Fox blockbuster continued the remarkable track record of superhero films at the box office, with a blazing $85.1 million opening weekend. Wolverine scored a hot $21,225 per theater average, but it didn’t outshadow every other film at the movies. Last year, when Iron Man opened to $98.6 million, the rest of the Top 12 earned $50 million. This year, against Wolverine‘s $85.1 million opening, the rest of the Top 12 found $65 million, which shows that we have much more depth at the cinema than last year. Now, Wolverine surely got off to a fantastic start, but it’s got a tough road ahead of it. First, there is the issue of frontloadedness. A $35 million Friday leaves Wolverine with an internal multiplier of 2.42, which doesn’t signify good legs. Then there’s the issue of Star Trek and Terminator: Salvation, which debut next week and then on May 21st, respectively. Both films will provide massive competition. Still, Wolverine should be able to make it to $200 million by the end of its run. Look for many more X-Men iterations in the years to come.

Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past, a Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner romantic comedy, got off to a moderately good start this weekend, with $15.3 million and an alright $4,827 venue average. Last year, Made Of Honor, which starred Patrick Dempsey, debuted against Iron Man to $14.7 million, on its way to $46 million overall. It looks like Warner Brothers was going for about the same kind of result with Ghosts, and they got it. If we learned anything from P.S. I Love You, it’s that this kind of film is review-proof, so Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past should earn about $40-45 million overall with ease.

The only other new opener was Lionsgate’s Battle For Terra. The unknown 3-D sci-fi animated film earned $1.1 million from 1,162 theaters. That’s an $934 per theater average. That’s awful.

Among holdovers, Obsessed fell 57% to $12.2 million, for a fantastic total of $47 million after ten days, while 17 Again dropped 45% to $6.4 million, for a total of $48 million after seventeen. Monsters Vs. Aliens cotinued to show off its legs (tentacles?) with a great 32% decline to $5.8 million in its sixth weekend. It has earned $182 million thus far. It’s no surprise that Fighting fell the hardest in Top 12. A 62% fall gave the Channing Tatum drama a $4.1 million over the frame and $17.5 million overall. Also, Jamie Foxx’s American Idol appearance may have helped The Soloist fall just 42% this weekend, but Fast And Furious is not having such luck. After a $70 million opening a few weeks ago, the racing flick looks to be petering out around $150 million. Check out the full chart:

Top 12 Actuals For May 1-3

# Movie Title 3-Day Gross % Change AVG. Total
1 X-Men Origins: Wolverine $85,058,003 New $20,751 $85,058,003
2 Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past $15,411,434 -51% $4,854 $15,411,434
3 Obsessed $12,052,151 -57% $4,794 $46,854,485
4 17 Again $6,361,358 -45% $1,954 $48,503,817
5 Monsters Vs. Aliens $5,803,429 -32% $2,210 $182,407,971
6 The Soloist $5,654,558 -42% $2,781 $18,162,695
7 Earth $4,340,235 -53% $2,406 $22,004,284
8 Hannah Montana The Movie $4,164,185 -62% $1,477 $70,946,323
9 Fighting $4,011,465 -37% $1,735 $17,344,805
10 State Of Play $3,715,980 -47% $1,520 $30,944,180
11 Fast And Furious $2,763,875 -56% $1,085 $149,806,190
12 Battle For Terra $1,082,362 New $934 $1,082,362
All Numbers Provided By Exhibitor Relations Co.

Also, Gitesh Pandya (Box Office Guru) and Nicole Sperling (EW) won the Analysts Challenge this week! Their guesses of $85 million were the closest of anyone’s! Great work, guys!