Archive for the ‘October 30-November 1’ Category

Weekend Fix: This Is It Takes #1 At The Box Office; Paranormal Activity Continues Its Rampage

November 2, 2009

Friday Estimates: Michael Jackson’s This Is It Doesn’t Live Up To Hype

October 31, 2009

Michael Jackson’s concert film, This Is It, earned $7.4 million on its opening Wednesday, and then followed that up with a steep 50% drop to $3.7 million on Thursday.  Obviously, this is going to be a very frontloaded film, and it will certainly undercut most everyone’s expectations, which had This Is It pegged at earning about $50 million in its first five days.  Now, a five day total of about $30 million seems more likely. 

UPDATE: Friday box office results are now in, and This Is It earned $7.5 million.  Just as the Wednesday/Thursday figures were frontloaded, so should the weekend figures be.  A $20 million weekend seems likely for Jackson’s posthumous documentary, which is far below what Sony was hoping for. Perhaps the film was hurt by the fact that Jackson lacked a large fanbase among young people. Perhaps the film will hold up better than expected over the rest of the weekend. We’ll have to wait and wee, but I wouldn’t count on it.  Paranormal Activity found another solid $6 million on Friday, and it should do very well on Halloween. Its performance will be good for second place, and the horror film that can’t be stopped should find $17 million over the weekend frame.  Meanwhile, Paranormal‘s main victim, Saw VI, could only manage $2 million on Friday, and it’s looking at an awful $6 million second weekend. Keep reading for the very early Friday Estimates:

Friday Estimates for October 30, 2009
1. This Is It – $7.5 million
2. Paranormal Activity – $6 million
3. Couples Retreat – $2.4 million
4. Law Abiding Citizen – $2.4 million
5. Where The Wild Things Are – $2.2 million
6. Saw VI – $2 million

Weekend Preview: This Is It For Michael Jackson’s This Is It

October 30, 2009

Only one new release this weekend, and that is Sony’s Michael Jackson’s This Is It, the documentary about Michael Jackson’s final hours as he prepared for his latest tour.  Watch the video above (you’ll see me getting musical!) to get my prediction for This Is It‘s box office potential.  The rest of the chart should largely look the same as last week.  Paranormal Activity will see a soft drop, as Paramount is adding 457 theaters to its count.  $100 million is all but assured for Paranormal at this point.  Law Abiding Citizen and Couples Retreat will continue their impressive runs with small decreases, while Where The Wild Things Are and (to a greater extent) Saw VI will fall hard.  Read on for my full predictions for this Halloween weekend…

Box Office Predictions for October 30 – November 1, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 Michael Jackson’s This Is It 3,481 $35 million
2 Paranormal Activity 2,402 $15 million
3 Law Abiding Citizen 2,764 $8 million
4 Where The Wild Things Are 2,754 $7 million
5 Couples Retreat 3,027 $6.7 million
6 Saw VI 3,036 $5.8 million
7 Astro Boy 3,020 $4 million
8 The Stepfather 2,346 $3.8 million
9 The Vampire’s Assistant 2,754 $3.2 million
10 Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 2,322 $3.2 million