Archive for the ‘Nicole Kidman’ Category

Why Sandra Bullock Should NOT Win The Oscar For Best Actress!

January 21, 2010

Two weeks ago, Sandra Bullock won the Critic’s Choice Award for Best Actress for her work in The Blind Side.  I wasn’t too happy, but I managed.  This past weekend, Bullock won the Golden Globe for Best Actress, and once again, I was less than pleased.  You see, with every award that Sandra Bullock racks up, her chances to win the Oscar for Best Actress improve, and that, my friends, is a big problem.  The way I see it, the Best Actress Oscar is cursed.  For the past decade, every woman that has won that award has been reduced to nothing more than box office poison, and Sandra Bullock is far from box office poison!  In fact, the Quigley Publishing Company ranked Bullock as the top box office draw of 2009!  Audiences connect with her down-to-earth attitude, accessible personality, and comedic chops, and she is one of the few stars whose star power alone can open a movie.  With The Proposal having just earned $165 million in 2009 and The Blind Side pushing $230 million, Sandra Bullock is at the top of her game, and I fear that if she wins the Academy Award for Best Actress, her box office viability will quickly deteriorate.  It’s happened to hordes of actresses already, and I can only assume the trend will continue this year.  Look no further than the career trajectories of the last ten Best Actress winners for my reasoning why Bullock should not win the Oscar:

1999 – Hilary Swank (Boys Don’t Cry)

Since her famous gender-bending role, Swank has hardly been box office gold.  Her biggest hit since her 1999 Oscar came from her 2004 Oscar-winning performance in Million Dollar Baby, which earned $100 million.  Swank has starred in movies like Insomnia ($67 million) and P.S. I Love You ($53 million) that weren’t total failures, but other than that, with movies like The Affair Of The Necklace ($471,210), The Core ($31 million), The Black Dahlia ($21 million), The Reaping ($25 million), and Amelia ($14 million), her resume isn’t particularly impressive.

2000 – Julia Roberts (Erin Brockovich)

Roberts had a banner year in 2001, following her Oscar win.  The Mexican earned $66 million, America’s Sweethearts found $93 million, and Oceans Eleven grossed $183 million, but of those films, really only America’s Sweethearts was opened on Julia Roberts’ star power.  Since then, her performances in Confessions Of A Dangerous Mind ($16 million), Mona Lisa Smile ($63 million), Closer ($34 million), Charlie Wilson’s War ($66 million against a $75 million budget), and Duplicity ($40 million) haven’t justified the actress’ $20 million salary demands.

2001 – Halle Berry (Monster’s Ball)

Sure, Halle Berry has had a few hits since her brilliant performance in 2001’s Monster’s Ball, but they were all in action franchises. The success of Die Another Day ($161 million), X2: X-Men United ($215 million), and X-Men: The Last Stand ($235 million) had more to do with the famous characters of James Bond and the X-Men than the actors playing them.  Mostly, Berry has just made poor decisions about which films to star in.  Gothika ($59 million), Catwoman ($40 million), Perfect Stranger ($24 million), and Things We Lost In The Fire ($3 million) all not only under-performed at the box office, they were also all just bad movies.

2002 – Nicole Kidman (The Hours)

Studios, if you would like to lose money on a major investment, then by all means, have Nicole Kidman star in your motion picture!  She’s proven box office poison!  She can help expensive sitcom film adaptations like Bewitched earn just $63 million!  She can encourage just $14 million worth of ticket buyers to see Invasion, which cost $80 million!  Even more impressive, she can turn a $180 million blockbuster like The Golden Compass into a sad $70 million earner, or a $130 million epic like Australia into a small $49 million picture!  Truly, there is no box office poison quite as potent as the fair-skinned Ms. Kidman!

2003 – Charlize Theron (Monster)

In the six years that have passed since 2003, Charlize Theron has just one successful movie under her belt, and that’s Hancock, which earned $228 million.  It was no small secret, though, that Sony completely hid her character in the advertising, instead focusing exclusively on Will Smith and his drawing power.  Indeed, I don’t blame them!  With meager grosses from films like The Road ($7 million), North Country ($18 million), In The Valley Of Elah ($6.7 million), and The Burning Plain ($200,730), Theron’s biggest hit that was opened on her appeal comes from the laughably bad Aeon Flux, which only earned $25 million.

2004 – Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby)

See 1999 above.

2005 – Reese Witherspoon (Walk The Line)

Immediately following her beloved performance as June Carter Cash, Witherspoon starred in two remarkably unsuccessful movies: Rendition ($9.7 million) and Penelope ($10 million).  When she got back to doing what she does best in the 2008 comedy Four Christmases ($120 million), her audience returned.  I can only hope that if Sandra Bullock is unfortunate enough to win Best Actress at the Oscars, she also will remember that audiences like her for her comedic chops, and no amount of Academy Awards will change that.

2006 – Helen Mirren (The Queen)

To be fair, a woman in her sixties can’t be expected to be a major box office draw, but the reality around Mirren, as well as the next two actresses on this list, is that she’s always been a critical darling, but not a box office heavyweight.  National Treasure: Book Of Secrets grossed a great $220 million, but again, the action sequel was its own draw, not the supporting actors.  Her other recent films include Inkheart ($17 million) and State Of Play ($37 million), both of which disappointed.

2007 – Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)

Starred in the pretty well-performing Public Enemies ($97 million), a film marketed solely on Johnny Depp and Christian Bale’s appeal, but she also starred in Nine ($18 million), which has disappointed in every sense of the word.

2008 – Kate Winslet (The Reader)

Ironically, the woman who starred in the biggest (soon to be second biggest) movie of all time, Titanic, has a wholly unremarkable box office record.  She hasn’t starred in anything since The Reader, but a quick look at her 2000s movies reveals ample evidence.  With movies like Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind ($34 million), Little Children ($5 million), and Revolutionary Road ($23 million), it’s clear that Winslet chooses material that can be hard to market, but there’s just no excuse for the mega-flop of All The King’s Men, which only found $7.2 million, despite a star-studded cast.

2009 – Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)

Sandra Bullock has infinitely more box office appeal than these actresses, for she can actually open a movie on her star power alone!  Hollywood mistakenly believes that because the above women have Oscars, it makes sense to pay them ridiculously high salaries, but from a box office analysis standpoint, they provide very little bang for your buck!  Bullock deserves a high salary because of her wide appeal, and I’d hate to see her fall prey to the curse of the Best Actress Oscar- It’s a career killer!

Daniel Craig – Box Office Poison

January 28, 2009

Let’s keep this post short and sweet bitter. I was looking at the box office figures for Defiance, and I noticed how poorly it’s doing. Then I looked at the box office figures for Daniel Craig, the headlining star of Defiance, and I noticed something else: Daniel Craig is box office poison! Seriously, outside of the James Bond franchise, it’s not just that the guy doesn’t draw in audiences, he actually hurts the success of the movies he is in! It’s a shame, because he’s a great actor, but like Nicole Kidman and Naomi Watts before him, nobody cares about Daniel Craig. Lets get into some numbers over the last few years:

2005
Craig broke out in 2005’s Layer Cake, a British caper film that garnered him enough attention to nab the coveted role of James Bond. Despite the loud buzz surrounding the film, though, it failed to break out in the U.S., earning a weak $2.3 million.

Later that year, Daniel moved on to a much higher profile film, Steven Spielberg’s Munich. Critics and audiences enjoyed the film, and it was even nominated for some Oscars, but it earned a very small, very un-Spielberg box office of $47 million.

2006
At this point, he’d been named as the new Bond, and his star was much higher than ever before, yet Craig’s next effort, the Truman Capote pic, Infamous, could only muster up $1 million in ticket sales. Sad.
Casino Royale debuted, and it was frickin’ awesome! It completely rejuvinated a tired franchise, and raked in a great $167 million. Craig was brilliant in the role, and everyeone fell in love with the new Bond. A star was born! Right?

2007
Wrong. After an $80 million budget, plus reshoots, plus built-in curiosity to see the remake, plus Nicole Kidman co-headlining, The Invasion grossed only $15 million in August 2007. It was like a perfect storm of box office poisons.

Then came a film that was all but assured to be a blockbuster on paper. His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass, a hugely expensensive ($205 million production budget + $60 million in advertising) fantasy film based on the popular book series, debuted in December 2007. Also starring Nicole Kidman, the wannabe Narnia or LOTR film found just $70 million at the domestic box office. Yeah, that’s less than Eragon.

2008
Quantum Of Solace came out, and once again, people turned out in droves to see the new James Bond feature. While not as beloved as Casino Royale, it still managed to rake in a solid $169 million.

And then there’s Defiance, Craig’s most recent effort. The WWII film comes with a hefty $50 million price tag, but after four weekends, has earned just $18 million.

So what have we learned today? A few things. First and foremost, Daniel Craig is box office poison. If you want your movie to make money, find another actor. Second, it is the character of James Bond, not the actor playing him, that draws in the audiences. Third and finally, NEVER let Craig star with Nicole Kidman. It’s just a bad idea, and you are guaranteed to lose money.

Weekend Fix: Compass Leads The Box Office South

December 11, 2007

     The box office is in serious trouble.  After a gigantically lucrative Summer, a poor selection of movies left the Fall box office with no huge, breakout successes, and some absolutely awful weekly grosses.  The small hope that many analysts were holding out for, however, was the one-two punch of The Golden Compass and I Am Legend to kick off the holiday season with booming business.  Unfortunately, this was far from the case this weekend, as The Golden Compass had a massively disappointing opening.  In what should have been a pretty good weekend at the movies, the December 7-9 weekend saw a 4% decrease from last weekend’s awful box office total, and the top 12 earned a measly $72.8 million.  Year-to-year, this represents at 16% drop from the top 12 this same weekend last year.

     The Golden Compass led the charts with a $25.8 million opening weekend.  To anyone who needs some perspective, The Chronicles of Narnia this most certainly is not.  C.S. Lewis’ fantasy epic opened with a fantastic $65.3 million, but Compass could not earn even half of that.  With a $180 million price tag, a super-wide venue count in 3,528 theaters, a loyal fan following, and heavy promotion, The Golden Compass may have seemed like a sure thing for the folks at New Line, but this will end up a gigantic loss for the studio, which was hoping for another Lord of the Rings type franchise.  Sadly, the picture played much more like last year’s Eragon, an adapted fantasy film about a dragon that also opened in December.  That film opened with $23.2 million on its way to $75 million overall.  With tepid reviews and a tepid per theater average of $7,308, I’m thinking The Golden Compass will finish with a very similar $75 million total.

     Enchanted remained one of the few bright spots at the box office, holding up extremely well to the competition.  This week, Disney’s princess movie dropped a small 35%, earning a fantastic $10.7 million in its third weekend.  This is enough to keep it playing throughout the holidays, when children are out of school, parents are not working, and movies make some real money.  Disney must be thrilled with Enchanted‘s performance so far, as it has grossed a sweet $83.8 million.

     This Christmas also held up well, earning $5 million this weekend, a good 38% drop.  Christmas-themed movies are starting to show their legs as the holiday draws near, and ScreenGems must be full of Christmas cheer with this film’s wonderful performance.  After three weekends, This Christmas has earned $42.7 million, which is more than triple its $13 million budget, and it should keep plugging along until Christmas.

     Fred Claus had a wonderful hold this weekend, dropping a tiny 16%, earning $4.6 million, and moving from sixth to fourth place.  Drops like this could redeem Fred Claus‘ mediocre box office beginnings, and it might not be the bust it once looked like, but it still would have been better placed as a December release.  After five weekends, the Santa comedy has earned a not-half-bad $65.5 million.
     At fifth is Paramount’s attempt at the fantasy epic, Beowulf.  The computer animated adventure dropped 45% to $4.5 million this weekend, bringing its total to $76 million after four weekends.  It’s the same story this weekend as every other one… that’s not a terrible result in and of itself, but the film simply cost too much to make ($150 million), and it won’t show a profit anytime soon.
     The best hold of the weekend comes from No Country For Old Men, which expanded into 330 extra theaters.  The Coen Brothers’ Oscar bait added another $4.1 million over the weekend, dropping just 6% in the process.  Of course, the extra theaters diluted the per theater average to $3,109, but that’s still the second highest in the top 12, so no one over at Miramax is worried.  No Country For Old Men has collected a great $28.7 million in five weekends.
     At seventh place is August Rush, which saw a small 30% decrease to $3.5 million over the weekend.  With $25.1 million in the till after three weekends, the Warner Bros. film could find another $10 million by the end of its run.
     Hitman falls to eighth place this weekend with a 42% drop to $3.5 million, which gives Fox’s mindless video-game action movie a moderately good $35.8 million over three weekends.
     In just its second weekend, Awake is already back in ninth place.  The sleeping thriller (oxymoron?) earned $3.3 million, dropping 43% this weekend.  Overall, the MGM flop has cumed a terrible $10.7 million in ten days.  Enchanted accomplished this in its third weekend alone!
     The Mist fell 42% this weekend, earning $2.6 million.  This is also a big MGM disappointment, as the Stephen King adaptation has made just $23.5 million in three weekends.  Thank goodness it was cheap to make.
     Rounding out the top 12 are the films that refuse to go away- Bee Movie and American Gangster.  Bee Movie fell 41% to $2.6 million, for a $121 million total.  American Gangster fell 40% to $2.5 million, for a $125.5 million total.  They have both been playing for six weeks.
     Don’t let the small drops fool you- this was a terrible weekend at the movies.  Ten of the top 12 films earned less than $5 million, and moviegoers just aren’t excited by this year’s offerings.  It doesn’t seem fair that for the past three weekends, we’ve relied on a sweet, little Disney princess to do all of the heavy lifting at the box office.  Here’s hoping that next week a bona fide action star (Will Smith) can contribute with I Am Legend.
Top Twelve for December 7-9
1. The Golden Compass – $25.8 million
2. Enchanted – $10.7 million
3. This Christmas – $5 million
4. Fred Claus – $4.6 million
5. Beowulf – $4.5 million
6. No Country For Old Men – $4.1 million
7. August Rush – $3.5 million
8. Hitman – $3.5 million
9. Awake – $3.3 million
10. The Mist – $2.6 million
11. Bee Movie – $2.6 million
12. American Gangster – $2.5 million

Friday Estimates: I Still Love You, Nicole

December 8, 2007

     Uh oh.  The box office is not in good shape right now.  The Golden Compass, the only new wide release, looks like it’s going to undercut my prediction substantially.  It earned $8.8 million on Friday, but it probably won’t have a great weekend multiplier, due to fanboys who rushed out to see the adaptation on its first day. This is not good news for New Line, who spent $150 million to make the film, and that’s not including advertising costs.  A $25 million weekend is a terrible result, but that’s where The Golden Compass looks headed.  Alright- I’m declaring it now, Nicole Kidman is box office poison.  For the life of me, I can’t figure out why her salary is $10-15 million per movie, when all her movies perform so poorly!  Look at her last three films she’s acted in: Bewitched: $63 million ($80 million budget).  Fur: An Imaginary Portrait of Diane Arbus: $0.2 million.  The Invasion: $6 million ($80 million budget).  All of these were huge financial busts.  Granted, The Golden Compass‘ sub-par start can’t really be blamed on her, but I’m just saying, she isn’t as bankable as you would think an Oscar-winning actress should be.

     In news that makes me delighted, though, Juno and Atonement opened fantastically!  In 30 theaters, Atonement earned $225,000, and in just 7 theaters, Juno made $125,000.  That means that their daily per theater averages were $7,000 and $17,800, respectively! Wider releases are guaranteed with numbers like that!
Friday Estimates for December 7
1. The Golden Compass – $8.8 million
2. Enchanted – $2.9 million
3. This Christmas – $1.5 million
4. Beowulf – $1.3 million
5. Fred Claus – $1.3 million
6. No Country For Old Men – $1.3 million
7. August Rush – $1.2 million
8. Awake – $1.1 million
9. Hitman $1 million
10. The Mist $0.8 million
11. American Gangster $0.8 million
12. Bee Movie $0.6 million

Compasses, Catholics, and Controversy… Oh My!

December 5, 2007

     The Golden Compass opens in just three short days, and while it’s one of the most hyped movies of the holiday season, it’s tough to predict how it will fare financially.  The fantasy epic, which stars Nicole Kidman, Daniel Craig, and newcomer Dakota Blue Richards, has been plagued with controversy from the beginning of its production, but whether the controversy will help or hurt the film has yet to be seen.  I’m getting the sense that The Golden Compass could be 2007’s King Kong, a film that underperformed after analysts way overhyped it.  For every good thing that The Golden Compass has going for it, it seems to have other forces going against it.

     On the one hand, it’s an adaptation of a fantasically popular book by Philip Pullman, and part of the acclaimed His Dark Materials trilogy.  On the other hand, that book series is only twelve years old, and it doesn’t have the classic grandeur of The Chronicles of Narnia or Lord of the Rings, which parents and children have read.  The adaptation Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events suffered from this, and it finished with a disappointing $118 million.  Because it’s not yet a classic, it is doubtful that The Golden Compass will pull in families like The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch, And The Wardrobe did in December 2005.  Exacerbating this problem, it doesn’t help that the film carries a not-so-family-friendly PG-13 rating.

     Of course, the big obstacle that The Golden Compass faces is its outright opposition with the Catholic Church, which made its official declaration that it is vehemently against the film.  Philip Pullman, the author of the books on which the movie is based, is an outspoken, C.S. Lewis-hating atheist. He has publicly said: “It is my goal to go after Christianity.  I want God to be dead in my works.  I want to undermine Christianity.”  Harsh words, right?  In his books, Pullman villainizes the Catholic Church (called the Magisterium).  The Magisterium is a tyrannical, corrupt, downright evil institution, which essentially controls the world.  The protagonists of the story ultimately take down the church, and in the final installment of the series, the children kill God.  Pullman’s hatred of the Catholic Church is about as subtle as a nuclear bomb, and though Director Chris Weitz insists that the film tones down these anti-Christian themes, the controversy surrounding the film is still enormous.
     Normally, controversy is free publicity for a film, and it propels the film to success.  The Passion of the Christ earned $373 million domestically because of it, Borat pulled in $128 million, and Fahrenheit 9/11 became the highest grossing documentary of all time with $119 million.  However, all of these films were rated R, and targeted toward adult audiences, while The Golden Compass is being marketed as a family affair.  It’s no secret that families flock to what they know is safe, wholesome entertainment (i.e. Enchanted, Narnia, Ratatouille, etc.), and New Line is taking a big risk by challenging the traditional views of middle American families.  In a predominantly Christian country, many parents simply won’t allow their kids to see a film that undermines their religion.  In this case, I think controversy will actually hurt The Golden Compass‘ box office, rather than augmenting it.
     Finally, the buzz around this movie among movie buffs is nearly deafening, and many are expecting the film to be THE breakout film of the winter season, and New Line is hoping it can launch a new successful fantasy trilogy, just like it did with Lord of the Rings.  However, with my above analysis and underwhelming early reviews, I don’t think The Golden Compass will be nearly as big as some are predicting.
     That’s not to say it will flop- it’s got this weekend in the bag, which is good because Nicole Kidman needs a hit so badly.  But how big will it be?  Check back on Friday for my Weekend Preview.