Archive for the ‘New Moon’ Category

Weekend Fix: Avatar Lives Up To Some Very High Expectations

December 20, 2009

Friday Estimates: Blind Side Is On Top, Brothers Opens Solidly, Everybody’s Fine Is Anything But

December 5, 2009

Early Friday estimates are in, and you know why I’m excited?  Because it snowing where I live! (Like in the picture above) You know why else I’m excited?  Because Brothers had a pretty solid debut!  Armored and Everybody’s Fine weren’t so lucky.  In the end, though, The Blind Side and New Moon are going to top the box office once again.  Read on for the Friday box office results, along with my notes and early weekend projections.

1. The Blind Side – $6.8 million
The Sandra Bullock football drama that everyone seems to love will rise to number one this weekend.  With almost $7 million on Friday, a $22 million weekend is in the cards. 

2. New Moon – $5.1 million
The emo-vampire flick saw another steep drop on Friday, but it should still find another $16 million this weekend, good for a whopping $256 million total.

3. Brothers – $3.6 million
I gotta say, I’m pretty proud of myself for predicting this one so accurately!  I knew I wasn’t the only one excited for this!  The drama could see an $11 million weekend.  If only I’d done as good of a job predicting Everybody’s Fine…

4. Armored – $2.4 million
The crime caper with surprisingly good reviews found about $2.4 million on Friday, and since this skews to a younger demographic, there should be a slight bit of frontloadedness here.  It should find $7 million over the frame.

5. Old Dogs – $2 million
6. 2012 – $2 million
7. A Christmas Carol – $1.9 million
8. Ninja Assassin – $1.6 million

9. Everybody’s Fine – $1.3 million

Alright, alright.  I’ll admit, I was off in my prediction for this family film, but oh well- it happens!  The Robert De Niro feature will earn around $4 million this weekend.

10. Planet 51 – $1 million

Weekend Fix: Waning New Moon And Robust Blind Side Crush The Newcomers Over Thankgsiving

November 29, 2009

Friday Estimates: The Blind Side And Everything Else Has A Lot To Be Thankful For This Weekend!

November 28, 2009

Thanksgiving Weekend’s Friday box office numbers are finally in, and we are seeing some major  activity at the movies.  New Moon held about as expected, but The Blind Side is blowing up, surpassing even my very high expectations! In fact, pretty much everything is doing better than expected this weekend!  There is a lot of money being made, and it makes you wish that that were the case in the rest of the economy… Anyway, let’s go over this movie by movie:

1. New Moon – $17.9 million

This is a bit below what I was predicting that this would do on Friday.  The vampire blockbuster is looking at a $48 million weekend and $238 million by the end of the frame.

2. The Blind Side – $16.2 million

Here’s the real story of the weekend.  The Blind Side is up a huge 46% from last Friday, and that’s based on strong word-of-mouth alone!   Most analysts were conservative, saying The Blind Side might earn $26-27 million this weekend.  I went way beyond that and predicted a $38 million weekend, but it’s even exceeding my predictions!  The beloved Sandra Bullock football film is giving New Moon a run for its money this weekend, but it should finish in second this frame with a ridiculously strong $40 million.  That would give it $100 million after just ten days.  Wow.

3. 2012 – $7 million

Also held up pretty well this weekend.  A small weekend decline to $19 million seems in order. While this hasn’t been magnificently huge in the US, worldwide, this has already earned $476 million.

4. Old Dogs – $6.85 million

This has a good shot at surpassing 2012 for the #3 spot.  Family films tend to blow up on Saturday and Sunday, so I’m expecting $22 million over the weekend.

5. A Christmas Carol – $6.6 million

About time this started to show some signs of life!  Now that people are actually in the mood for a Christmas movie, this should recover a bit after its lackluster start.  A $18 million weekend will help A Christmas Carol quite a bit, as will the small December declines, but in my opinion, it’s just too little too late for the absurdly expensive feature.

6. Ninja Assassin – $5.7 million

This is definitely a better result than I was thinking.  Ninja Assassin already earned $7.9 million on Wednesday and Thursday, so a likely $15 million weekend will bring its 5-day total to about $23 million.

7. Planet 51 – $4.1 million

Actually improved upon its last Friday, but I’m sorry: I just didn’t care last weekend, and I don’t care this weekend.

8. Fantastic Mr. Fox – $3 million

The Wes Anderson animated film isn’t going to break any records, and I’m not about to call it a huge hit, but it might actually earn double digits this weekend.  $8.5 million seems to be in the cards for the inventive picture.

9. Precious – $2.8 million

Maybe this is finally showing some signs of losing a bit of steam.  Once award nominations start up (and the Precious-themed Oprah episode airs) this should pick back up.  Still, $7.5 million ain’t bad at all for a film in 663 theaters.

10. The Men Who Stare At Goats – $630,000

Told’ya this would be a front-loaded liberal fanboy movie!  It started off okay with $12.7 million, but it’s barely going to pass $30 million total this weekend.

11. The Road – $560,000

People who love this film will gloat about its “amazing” box office, saying that it’s only in 111 theaters and earned $560,000 this weekend. But if people were hoping this would break out and be a big hit, then I’m sorry to say that they’re in for some bad news.  The Road is going to need a lot more than a $1.6 million weekend and a $16,000 per theater average to merit much expansion and promotion, and that looks to be where the grim film is headed.

12. The Princess And The Frog – $277,000

This is an astounding figure.  Out of 2 theaters, The Princess And The Frog captured all that money.  While this does bode very well for the film’s future, we have to keep in mind that people were paying about $30 for each ticket…

Weekend Fix: With New Moon’s $142.8M Debut, Vampires Are One Step Closer To World Domination

November 22, 2009

Friday Estimates: New Moon Smashes Records With $72.7 Million! The Blind Side Grabs $10.9 Million!

November 20, 2009

UPDATE (Saturday AM):  Early Friday estimates have been released, and New Moon has shattered the record for highest single day box office!   It earned $72.7 million on Friday, enough to dethrone The Dark Knight‘s $67 million Friday in July 2008 as the best box office day in history.  It’s difficult for me to articulate to you all how incredible this result is.  Just think- Twilight earned about $70 million in three days last year, while New Moon earned $72.7 million in just one!  Crazy. Where does the vampire drama go from here?  Well, let’s figure that out, and while we’re at it, let’s look at the rest of the box office as well.

New Moon is going to fall quickly.  With an opening day that huge, it is simply inevitable.  Last year,  Twilight fell a big 41% on Saturday and 42% on Sunday, and the drops this time around might be even steeper.  Still, even if it falls 50% for the next few days, that will give New Moon a $126 million weekend.  I personally think it will be a little bit higher, due to obsessed fans’ repeat viewings.  Expect a $130 million weekend, and if New Moon does better, it could take the third place spot for best opening weekend from Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest, which earned $135.6 million in July 2006.

But believe it or not, there were actually other movies at the box office this weekend, and a few actually did very well!  In second place is Warner Brothers’ feel-good football movie, The Blind Side, which (to my delight) performed well beyond expectations, starting with $10.9 million on Friday.  Offering a strong choice for males not wanting to watch the emo vampire parade, this is counter-programming at its best. Bravo, Warner Brothers!  I didn’t expect this to open this big, but I did expect it to stick around throughout the holidays.  Now, though, its box office run will enjoy a great opening and strong legs!  Expect an opening weekend of $33 million for The Blind Side, and like I said in my video on Friday, this will break $100 million.

As far as the rest of the box office goes, 2012 fell 68% from last Friday, earning $8.1 million.  Probably benefiting from strong male attendance as well, a $28 million weekend is in store.  Precious, meanwhile, added another $3.5 million to its amazing cume, and it should find $11 million over the rest of the weekend.  Planet 51 found $3 million, while b>A Christmas Carol found $3.5 million yesterday. This should result in grosses of $11 million and $15 million, respectively.

Early Friday Estimates for November 20, 2009
1. The Twilight Saga: New Moon – $72.7 million
2. The Blind Side – $10.9 million
3. 2012 – $8.1 million
4. Precious – $3.5 million
5. A Christmas Carol – $3.5 million
6. Planet 51 – $3 million
7. The Men Who Stare At Goats – $860,000
8. Couples Retreat – $650,000
9. The Fourth Kind – $620,000
10. Paranormal Activity – $500,000

ORIGINAL POST (Friday AM): Based on some Summit’s official announcement, it looks like The Twilight Saga: New Moon earned an overwhelmingly huge $26.67 million from it’s 12:01 showings across the country. For some perspective, Harry Potter And The Half Blood Prince earned $22.8 million from midnight showings and  The Dark Knight earned $18.4 million.  This smashes both of those figures easily.  Let’s look at what that might mean for the rest of the weekend.

Harry Potter And The Half Blood Prince earned $58.1 million on its first days on the box office, and as I mentioned above, $22.8 million of that came from midnight showings.  That means 39.2% of the gross came from midnight showings.  If we assume a similar percentage for New Moon, it’s looking at a $68 million Friday.  However, Harry Potter came out on a Wednesday, so this figure might not be the best comparision.  Let’s look to The Dark Knight, instead…

The Dark Knight earned $67.2 million on its opening Friday, with $18.4 million coming from midnight showings.  That means 27.4% of the Friday gross came from midnight box office.  Applying these numbers to New Moon, it appears that the teen vampire drama might see a shockingly gigantic $97.4 million this Friday, but that’s just ludicrous.

In all reality, it will probably finish somewhere in between this range, and it’s looking very likely that New Moon will earn more on its opening Friday than Twilight earned in its entire first weekend.  Right now, I think $75 million is a safe estimate for Friday, and major front-loadedness is guaranteed for the picture.  The Dark Knight had a 2.35 weekend multiplier, and New Moon‘s will be even steeper.  Still, we may be looking at a $150 million weekend!  We’ll have to stay tuned to find out.  Regardless, all I know is that New Moon is taking over the world. You may as well just pull your collar down, lead your head back, and submit to the vampires…

New Moon’s Box Office Potential: Let’s Look At The Numbers

November 19, 2009

If you know anything about the film world, seriously anything, then you that The Twilight Saga: New Moon is debuting in just a few short hours, and it’s going to be absolutely huge.  I haven’t bought into this trend of writing about every single development that’s remotely Twilight related, just to get some traffic, and I don’t plan on starting.  Basically, you’re either on this vampire train, or you’re not, so I’m not going to sit here and summarize the whole story.  Both the fans and the haters don’t need to hear it.  I’m sure some of you already have your tickets for New Moon, and I’m sure some of you would be happy if you never saw Jacob, Edward, or Bella again.  Despite the polarized opinions, though, one thing I know we can all agree on is that here at The Box Office Junkie, the numbers are what do the talking.  Therefore, before I make my official box office prediction for New Moon, let’s just look at all the numbers that are relevant to its release…

New Moon Figures

4,000 – Estimated Number of Theaters New Moon Will Debut On

2,150 Pre-Sold Out Screenings via Fandango (at Thursday Morning)

87% – Percentage Of These Ticket Buyers Who Are Female

34% – Percentage of Positive Reviews for New Moon (so far)

Twilight Figures

$191,465,415 Twilight’s Domestic Box Office Total

$192,227,954 Twilight’s Foreign Box Office Total

$383,693,368 Twilight’s Wordwide Box Office Total

$69,637,740 – Twilight’s Domestic Opening Weekend

$20,368 – Twilight’s Opening Weekend Per Theater Average

3,469 – Theaters Twilight Debuted On

$7 million – Box Office From Twilight’s Midnight Showings

9,312,042 – Twilight DVDs Sold In The U.S.

$167,739,089 – Twilight DVD Sales Revenue

49% – Percentage of Positive Reviews for Twilight

Based on all of these numbers, how much do you think New Moon will earn this weekend.  I’m looking at about $100 million for the frame, which is just insane.  What do you think?  Let me know your early predictions in the comments.


November 18, 2009

Got your attention?  Good.

I’m not being serious with that headline, but hopefully, you find it fairly disturbing.  After all, Dakota Fanning, who stars in New Moon, is just 15 years old.  Obviously, no one in the media world would want to write anything suggestive about an underage female starlet- that would just be sick. But with New Moon coming out this Friday, I’ve noticed a disturbing trend and egregious double-standard surrounding Taylor Lautner, the 17 year old actor who plays Jacob in the Twilight films.  Apparently, objectifying underage males is okay…

A few years ago, someone set up a website to countdown how long it would be until the Olsen twins were finally legal.  It featured tons of photographs, statements about how hot they were, and speculation as to whether or not they would take nude photographs once their 18th birthday rolled around.  People were disgusted.  A similar website appeared when Emma Watson, star of the Harry Potter films, was 17 years old, and the media vigorously attacked its creator and visitors.  These small websites were torn apart by the popular media, which labeled them as screwed-up and perverted.  However, I think it’s about time that someone gave the popular media a similar rebuke.

Taylor Lautner is 17 years old!  Do you hear that?  Not 18!  Not a legal adult! He was just 16 when Twilight debuted, and for the past year, he has been consistently objectified by the media, and no one has stepped in to say that this is wrong!  Seriously, for months, there have been reports about Taylor’s abs, Taylor’s biceps, and his shirtless scenes in New Moon. A simple search on GoogleNews reveal results (like this, this, this, or this) that call Taylor “beefy,” “hunky,” and “sexy,” and this has been going on all year!  Honestly, if any reporter wrote about Selena Gomez’s boobs, or Demi Lovato’s ass, they would be demolished by critics immediately.  So why is it okay to talk about Taylor Lautner as a sexual object?

Because he is a male.  Entertainment media is dominated by females, and there is a glaring double standard in the way that men and women are allowed to talk about the opposite sex.  Apparently, where men’s sexual thoughts about young women are considered perverted, women’s lusty thoughts about young men are more than welcome.  Indeed, women (and gay men) can objectify men and not be criticized- it’s just snarky when they do it.  This is not alright, and I hope it bothers someone else other than me.  If morality is going to be imposed upon heterosexual male writers, then it should be equally put upon everyone else as well.

DVD Sales: G.I. Joe Shoots To The Top Of The Chart

November 18, 2009

Finally!  The paper from Hell is done, and I have a life again!  Until Monday, when another paper is due…ugh,  But don’t let me sit here and whine my whole day away- it’s time to get back to what I do best- being a numbers-obsessed blogger!  This week, for about the fifth week running now, we’ve had a new DVD earn about $40 million, and these figures should stay strong through holiday season.  This week, G.I. Joe: The Rise Of Cobra topped the DVD Sales Chart, which you can see in full, along with my DVD Sales Notes, below.

DVD Sales Notes

G.I. Joe: The Rise Of Cobra, known mostly as a movie that blew stuff up every five seconds, blew up on the DVD Sales Chart this week, selling 2.5 million copies for $41 million in sales.  This is a really great result for an action movie that made $150 million in theaters, and $300 million worldwide.  With strong DVD sales like this, Paramount may just be convincing me that greenlighting a sequel for this wasn’t a terrible idea.

-What does this say about me?  The Taking Of Pelham 123, which starred John Travolta and Denzel Washington, grossed $65 million in theaters, $14.2 million in its first week on DVD, and I could not remember what it was for the life of me.  Meanwhile, Aliens in the Attic, which starred nobody but Ashley Tisdale, grossed $25 million in theaters, $5 million in its first week on DVD, and I knew exactly what it was…

-Disney is still working its magic Tinker Bell And The Lost Treasure, which earned another $10.2 million this week, for $34.4 million overall.

-With New Moon coming on this Friday (What? You haven’t heard?), Twilight is back on the charts, trying its hardest to break the 10 million unit barrier by Christmas.  This week, it got 149,284 copies closer to that goal, earning $2.9 million in the process.

Star Wars: The Clone Wars – The Complete Season One is the TV-on-DVD performer of the week.  Cartoon Network’s big hit sold 156,630 units for $4.7 million in its first week, and I’m wondering how old the people are who are buying this DVD.  Do you think its mainly kids or adults?  I’m genuinely wondering.

Check out the full chart below:

DVD Sales for the Week Ending November 8, 2009
Rank Title Units this Week Total Units Sales this Week Total Sales Wks
1 G.I. Joe: The Rise Of Cobra 2,538,577 2,538,577 $40,998,019 $40,998,019 1
2 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs 974,814 3,482,051 $17,322,445 $59,168,230 2
3 The Taking of Pelham 123 919,727 919,727 $14,154,599 $14,154,599 1
4 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen 791,782 7,564,163 $17,015,395 $170,718,052 3
5 Tinker Bell and the Lost Treasure 636,167 2,152,795 $10,172,310 $34,423,192 2
6 Aliens in the Attic 306,914 306,914 $4,981,214 $4,981,214 1
7 The Proposal 276,959 3,595,899 $4,780,312 $59,596,023 4
8 Star Wars: The Clone Wars – The Complete Season One 156,630 156,630 $4,697,334 $4,697,334 1
9 Monsters vs. Aliens 154,092 3,888,366 $2,551,764 $67,612,008 6
10 Twilight 149,284 9,312,042 $2,921,488 $167,739,089 33
11 Orphan 138,099 424,927 $2,484,401 $7,644,437 2
12 I Love You, Beth Cooper 124,390 124,390 $2,113,386 $2,113,386 1
13 Family Guy – Volume 7 117,028 706,926 $2,397,904 $16,901,163 21
14 The Simpsons – The Complete Twelfth Season 105,859 420,282 $1,720,505 $11,903,326 12
15 Land of the Lost 105,605 804,830 $1,748,819 $13,149,697 4
16 24 – Season Seven 101,035 694,804 $2,373,312 $21,284,505 25
17 Hannah Montana The Movie 97,989 2,850,845 $1,468,855 $48,711,729 12
18 Edward Scissorhands 95,704 $984,976 479
19 The Big Bang Theory: The Complete Second Season 93,674 385,723 $2,762,446 $11,279,403 8
20 X-Men Origins: Wolverine 92,658 3,951,721 $1,419,521 $66,785,312 8
21 Drag Me to Hell 88,850 632,612 $1,585,973 $11,132,721 4
22 Polar Express, The 88,089 $791,920 202
23 Battlestar Galactica: The Plan 82,504 262,273 $1,560,151 $4,959,582 2
24 Ice Age: The Meltdown 82,458 8,009,712 $1,165,132 $131,237,769 155
25 Mickey’s Magical Christmas 78,950 $1,307,412 418
26 Dr. Seuss – Green Eggs and Ham and Other Favorites 41,359 $268,420 318
27 Wrong Turn 3: Left for Dead 40,110 201,325 $715,964 $3,534,361 3
28 Ghosts of Girlfriends Past 31,478 1,019,583 $458,320 $17,844,124 7
29 The Last House on the Left 28,686 872,883 $430,003 $16,701,703 12
30 Legend of the Seeker: The Complete First Season 22,339 141,094 $706,583 $4,534,909 4
Figures from The-Numbers

Twilight Sucks

June 11, 2009

Exhibit A:

I don’t think we even need an Exhibit B.