UPDATE (Saturday AM): Early Friday estimates have been released, and New Moon has shattered the record for highest single day box office! It earned $72.7 million on Friday, enough to dethrone The Dark Knight‘s $67 million Friday in July 2008 as the best box office day in history. It’s difficult for me to articulate to you all how incredible this result is. Just think- Twilight earned about $70 million in three days last year, while New Moon earned $72.7 million in just one! Crazy. Where does the vampire drama go from here? Well, let’s figure that out, and while we’re at it, let’s look at the rest of the box office as well.
New Moon is going to fall quickly. With an opening day that huge, it is simply inevitable. Last year, Twilight fell a big 41% on Saturday and 42% on Sunday, and the drops this time around might be even steeper. Still, even if it falls 50% for the next few days, that will give New Moon a $126 million weekend. I personally think it will be a little bit higher, due to obsessed fans’ repeat viewings. Expect a $130 million weekend, and if New Moon does better, it could take the third place spot for best opening weekend from Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest, which earned $135.6 million in July 2006.
But believe it or not, there were actually other movies at the box office this weekend, and a few actually did very well! In second place is Warner Brothers’ feel-good football movie, The Blind Side, which (to my delight) performed well beyond expectations, starting with $10.9 million on Friday. Offering a strong choice for males not wanting to watch the emo vampire parade, this is counter-programming at its best. Bravo, Warner Brothers! I didn’t expect this to open this big, but I did expect it to stick around throughout the holidays. Now, though, its box office run will enjoy a great opening and strong legs! Expect an opening weekend of $33 million for The Blind Side, and like I said in my video on Friday, this will break $100 million.
As far as the rest of the box office goes, 2012 fell 68% from last Friday, earning $8.1 million. Probably benefiting from strong male attendance as well, a $28 million weekend is in store. Precious, meanwhile, added another $3.5 million to its amazing cume, and it should find $11 million over the rest of the weekend. Planet 51 found $3 million, while b>A Christmas Carol found $3.5 million yesterday. This should result in grosses of $11 million and $15 million, respectively.
Early Friday Estimates for November 20, 2009
1. The Twilight Saga: New Moon – $72.7 million
2. The Blind Side – $10.9 million
3. 2012 – $8.1 million
4. Precious – $3.5 million
5. A Christmas Carol – $3.5 million
6. Planet 51 – $3 million
7. The Men Who Stare At Goats – $860,000
8. Couples Retreat – $650,000
9. The Fourth Kind – $620,000
10. Paranormal Activity – $500,000
ORIGINAL POST (Friday AM): Based on some Summit’s official announcement, it looks like The Twilight Saga: New Moon earned an overwhelmingly huge $26.67 million from it’s 12:01 showings across the country. For some perspective, Harry Potter And The Half Blood Prince earned $22.8 million from midnight showings and The Dark Knight earned $18.4 million. This smashes both of those figures easily. Let’s look at what that might mean for the rest of the weekend.
Harry Potter And The Half Blood Prince earned $58.1 million on its first days on the box office, and as I mentioned above, $22.8 million of that came from midnight showings. That means 39.2% of the gross came from midnight showings. If we assume a similar percentage for New Moon, it’s looking at a $68 million Friday. However, Harry Potter came out on a Wednesday, so this figure might not be the best comparision. Let’s look to The Dark Knight, instead…
The Dark Knight earned $67.2 million on its opening Friday, with $18.4 million coming from midnight showings. That means 27.4% of the Friday gross came from midnight box office. Applying these numbers to New Moon, it appears that the teen vampire drama might see a shockingly gigantic $97.4 million this Friday, but that’s just ludicrous.
In all reality, it will probably finish somewhere in between this range, and it’s looking very likely that New Moon will earn more on its opening Friday than Twilight earned in its entire first weekend. Right now, I think $75 million is a safe estimate for Friday, and major front-loadedness is guaranteed for the picture. The Dark Knight had a 2.35 weekend multiplier, and New Moon‘s will be even steeper. Still, we may be looking at a $150 million weekend! We’ll have to stay tuned to find out. Regardless, all I know is that New Moon is taking over the world. You may as well just pull your collar down, lead your head back, and submit to the vampires…