Archive for the ‘May 8-10’ Category

Weekend Fix: Star Trek Prospers With $76.5 Million On Opening Weekend! Will It Live Long?

May 10, 2009

UPDATE #3: WHAT?! This post has 22 comments?! That’s AWESOME! Keep ’em coming! I finally got the Weekend Fix posted, so I hope you enjoy!
UPDATE #3.5:
Okay, Weekend Actuals just came in, and Star Trek exceeded expectations even more! Craziness! – Grady

Weekend figures just arrived, and Star Trek’s weekend gross is a sweet $75.2 million! ($79.2 million including Thursday!) On Saturday, Star Trek pulled in another $27.2 million, a 1% increase from Friday. Clearly, this film is reaching a much larger audience than just the old Trekkies. Otherwise, we would have seen a fanboy-style dip on Saturday. The Sunday drop to $21 million was quite good, as well, and it shows that good Friday and Saturday word-of-mouth prevented any dip due to Mother’s Day. It appears that Paramount’s advertising got its job done, and audiences are connecting with the raved-about reboot. Also, you should know that in the confusing shuffle of whether or not to count the Thursday showings in the weekend gross of Star Trek, it looks like the accepted figure is that Star Trek made $4 million during Thursday showings. I suppose that the other $3 million earned on Thursday were from showimtes close enough to midnight that they’re just being counted as Friday shows. This is how the weekend looked:

Thursday: $4 million
Friday: $26.9 million
Saturday: $27.2 million (+1.3%)
Sunday: $21.1 million (-22%)
TOTAL: $79.2 million

Bravo, J.J. Abrams! You’ve successfully brought the franchise back to life! Indeed, with a sizzling $21,190 venue average over the three day weekend, 95% positive reviews, and an amazing $79.2 million over three and a half days, look for Star Trek to stick around for weeks to come. Batman Begins, a reboot that compares to Star Trek well, opened to $48 million on the way to $205 million. That’s a 4.27 multiplier. If Star Trek could manage that kind of a multiplier, we’re looking at a $300 million hit. Due to the sci-fi nature of the story, I don’t know how likely that is, but as good word spreads and Trekkies line up again and again to see this, I’m willing to go on record saying that I think $250 million is a likely achievement for Star Trek. It could surpass that, but I certainly think it will make it there. We’ll have to wait and see!

Next, we have X-Men Origins: Wolverine. Isn’t it weird to think that last week, this film is all anyone could talk about? With the Enterprise now clearly in its way, though, Wolverine feels like a distant memory, and its harsh second weekend drop isn’t helping out. This weekend, Wolverine fell a massive 69% to $26.4 million (exactly what I predicted!), for a ten day total of $129 million. To be clear: this is not good. The Fox film cost $150 million to make, and that’s not including the HUGE costs of advertising and reshoots. Following its current trajectory, $170 million seems like a likely finish for Wolverine. So are you satisfied with its gross? You do the math. Perhaps Fox should’ve taken a page out of Paramount’s book and spent a longer time crafting a great movie, because even though Trek didn’t open as big as Wolverine, it’ll be sticking around a lot longer!

Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past performed like a champ this weekend. After last week’s slightly underwhelming $15.2 million debut, the Matthew McConaughey romantic comedy, fell just 33% to $10.3 million this week. Ghosts currently sits with $30.1 million, but with a few more drops like this over the next few weeks, Warner Brothers could have a nice $50-55 million little hit on their hands.

Meanwhile, Obsessed has already exceeded that! With a 46% drop to $6.6 million, the Beyonce/Ali Larter catfight film is once again validating my theory about the Era of Easy Entertainment, and after seventeeen days, Obsessed grossed $56.2 million. (That’s about one dollar for every hair that got ripped out of Beyonce’s weave during the making of this film!) The cheap thriller will be remembered as a solid Spring success.

The only other new opener this weekend was Next Day Air, an urban drug comedy starring Donald Faison. The Summit film failed to catch on with audiences or critics, and it only managed to pull in $4.1 million during its opening frame.

Finally, I just want to give a shout out to Monsters Vs. Aliens. The Dreamworks film from way back in March has performed admirably after its $58 million debut. Currently Monsters has multiplied its opening by about 3.2, giving it a $186 million total. Big international sales as well as DVD revenue will push this film, budgeted at $175 million, into the black.

Top 12 Actuals For May 8-10
# Movie Title 3-Day Gross % Change AVG. Total
1 Star Trek $75,204,289 New $21,190 $79,204,289
2 X-Men Origins: Wolverine $26,408,288 -69% $6,438 $129,032,435
3 Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past $10,258,141 -33% $3,231 $30,054,386
4 Obsessed $6,560,266 -46% $2,521 $56,207,576
5 17 Again $4,232,422 -33% $1,458 $53,994,515
6 Next Day Air $4,111,043 New $3,613 $4,111,043
7 The Soloist $3,949,430 -30% $1,890 $23,845,177
8 Monsters Vs. Aliens $3,260,440 -44% $1,492 $186,774,042
9 Earth $2,666,219 -39% $1,486 $26,264,242
10 Hannah Montana The Movie $2,193,043 -47% $953 $73,861,795
11 Fighting $2,010,075 -50% $1,040 $20,453,095
12 State Of Play $1,918,295 -48% $1,245 $33,986,760
All Numbers Provided By Exhibitor Relations Co.

This weekend, the Top 12 films grossed a fantastic $142.7 million, a 21.3% increase over the same weekend last year! Year-to-date, box office revenue is up 14% and attendance is up by 12%!
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Friday Estimates: Star Trek Captures $24 Million On Friday For $31 Million Overall!

May 9, 2009

Wow, this news just came in! UPDATE: Saturday Estimates HERE

Alright, so the very early estimate for Star Trek is that it earned a great $24 million on Friday. Adding that to the estimated $7 million that the intergalactic flick found on Thursday night, Star Trek has an early total of $31 million. Here’s the trajectory I’m seeing for this weekend:

Thursday: $7 million
Friday: $24 million
Saturday: $23 million
Sunday: $16 million
TOTAL: $70 million

This exceeds my $67 million prediction, and Paramount has got to be excited by this result. This is, without a doubt, the hugest opening any Star Trek film has ever had. The advertising campaign has paid off, and new audiences were clearly engaged by the reboot. From here, amazing reviews and word-of-mouth will carry Star Trek to success, and this is a major victory for everyone involved!

UPDATE: As expected, Wolverine plummeted in its second weekend, and it’s $8.5 million Friday represents a 76% drop from last Friday. It should stabilize a bit over Saturday and Sunday, but still fall about 65-70%, so a $28 million weekend seems likely. The only other debut, Next Day Air, couldn’t get off the runway, with a very poor first day of $1.4 million. Give the urban comedy $4 million overall. Here are the Friday Estimates:

Friday Estimates for May 8, 2009
1. Star Trek – $24 million
2. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $8.5 million
3. Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past – $3.1 million
4. Obsessed – $2 million
5. Next Day Air – $1.4 million
6. 17 Again – $1.3 million
7. The Soloist – $980,000 million
8. Fighting – $686,000
9. Monsters Vs. Aliens – $675,000
10. Earth – $670,000
11. Hannah Montana The Movie – $575,000
12. State Of Play – $516,000

Let’s here some reactions in the comments! And if you want more up-to-the-minute box office updates and my other film musings, follow me on Twitter!

Weekend Preview: Star Trek Will Definitely Take Off, But Will It Be At Warp-Speed?

May 8, 2009

Trekkies, the time for redemption has finally come. Gone are the days when people have no conception of who Captain Kirk or Uhura are. No longer will people scoff at you when you criticize the atrocity of a show that was Star Trek: Enterprise. No longer will you be the only ones at the office that understand the time-space bending properties of black holes. No longer will you be the only ones in the town with Vulcan haircuts. Okay, so maybe that last one isn’t true, but you get my point: Star Trek is cool again! Paramount has worked its tail off over the last few months to wash away the negative, nerdy, frankly lame connotations that the Star Trek franchise has developed over the last few year, and if there’s a film that’s going to succeed in doing so, it is this one. J.J. Abrams’ reimagined Star Trek is so beautifully produced and so lovingly handled. You can tell that everyone involved was really trying to make the best movie they could, and I think that decision will pay off big time. I saw it tonight, and it’s just awesome- the review will come soon. Paramount’s clearly confident about Star Trek, as they’ve advertised the heck out of it and already have a sequel greenlit, and its headed for the easy weekend win.

Comparing Star Trek to X-Men Origins: Wolverine is tricky. To be clear, I do not think that Star Trek is going to open as big as Wolverine did last weekend. Audiences are sure to be skeptical of the outer space franchise after 2002’s disastrous entry Star Trek: Nemesis (which earned a very sad $43 million) and the failed 2003 TV series, and many recession-affected adults are going to hold out to see this one is worth the $10 ticket. The debut of Star Trek actually reminds me a lot of 2005’s Batman Begins. After 1997’s embarrassingly bad Batman And Robin, audiences approached the reboot of the superhero franchise cautiously. Begins started with a humble $48 million during opening weekend on its way to $205 million overall. Star Trek, between its built-in audience and Paramount’s advertising, should be able to top Batman Begins‘ opening weekend, but it won’t hit Wolverine‘s level. That’s not to say that it won’t outgross the quickly falling Wolverine, because (mark my words) it will. Star Trek‘s word-of-mouth is going to be great, and the stellar reviews will convince adults to see the film. Star Trek is beaming into a very wide 3,849 theaters, and including the Thursday night showings, I’m predicting a $67 million weekend and a possible $230 million total, and even though it’s probably way too early to be wondering how big the sequel’s opening will be, I’m a box office analyst, and that’s just what I do! I’m already seeing numbers closer to $100 million…

You’ll have to excuse my extremely biased predictions for Star Trek. I’m still glowing after having watched the movie a few hours ago, and I’d be lying if I said that didn’t affect my judgment. I really do believe $230 million is possible, though! But getting back to reality, there’s only one other new release this weekend: Summit Entertainment’s Next Day Air. The poorly reviewed urban drug comedy is clearly targeting an African American audience, a group all too often underestimated by analysts. Next Day Air is only flying into 1,138 theaters, but I’m predicting a pretty solid cume of $7 million.

On Monday, X-Men Origins: Wolverine earned $5.4 million. On Tuesday, it fell 15% to $4.6 million. On Wednesday it fell another 13% to $4 million. What do these statistics tell us? That Wolverine is fading fast. The superhero flick that kicked off the summer is looking more and more like a flash-in-the-pan success than an actual financial win for Fox. With lackluster word-of-mouth, the fanboy effect, and the direct competition of Star Trek, I think Wolverine will fall by a big 68% to $27.2 million in its second weekend. That would put the actionfest around $130 million for ten days, but it’s got no shot at breaking $200 million anymore.

Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past, last weekend’s romantic comedy counter programming, should enjoy a solid hold this weekend. The Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner film was never going to be huge, but I don’t think Warner Brothers expected it to. A 40% drop would give Ghosts a $9.2 million weekend and $29 million overall. Here are my predictions for the Top 12:

Predicted Top 12 for May 8-10, 2009
1. Star Trek – $67 million
2. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $27.2 million
3. Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past – $9.2 million
4. Next Day Air – $7 million
5. Obsessed – $6 million
6. Monsters Vs. Aliens – $4.1 million
7. 17 Again – $3.9 million
8. The Soloist – $3.6 million
9. Hannah Montana The Movie – $2.8 million
10. Earth – $2.5 million
11. State Of Play – $1.9 million
12. Fighting – $1.8 million

How much do you think Star Trek will earn this weekend? Let me hear your predictions in the comments! (For real people, commenting is so easy! If you just click here, you’ll instantly be ready to type in your answer!)