Archive for the ‘Law Abiding Citizen’ Category

Friday Estimates: A Christmas Carol Captures $9 Million Worth Of Christmas Cheer

November 7, 2009

Friday box office estimates are starting to roll in, and while we have a clear winner in Disney’s A Christmas Carol, the race for second place will be tight between The Men Who Stare At Goats, The Fourth Kind, and This Is It.  Here are Friday’s numbers, along with my early impressions on these results:

A Christmas Carol
With $9 million on Friday, a $30 million weekend seems likely, which is well below my $40 million prediction, yet in line with the starts of other Robert Zemeckis motion-capture films like The Polar Express ($23.3 million) and Beowulf ($27.5 million).  I’m kind of frustrated in myself.  I wanted to predict this closer to $30 million, but I just believed so much in Disney’s marketing prowess, and I upped my prediction considerably.  As I’ve said before, A Christmas Carol could have opened much higher if it had debuted two weeks from now, but the silver lining for Disney is that this Jim Carrey Christmas tale will plug along steadily for the next seven weeks, as the actual holiday of Christmas grows near.  If it’s lucky, A Christmas Carol will earn back its $175 million budget, but that will be a tough task.  Can’t wait to find out if it does!

The Fourth Kind

The alien abduction (non) thriller began with $5 million on Friday, which isn’t too shabby.  But between the terrible reviews, the crowded marketplace, and the way that fanboys rush out on opening day to see this sort of film, I wouldn’t expect much for the rest of the weekend.  By Sunday, The Fourth Kind will probably have abducted about $13 million out of American pockets.

The Men Who Stare At Goats

The George Clooney war satire earned $4.6 million on Friday.  I had this pegged at earning $2-3 million on Friday, since cynical movies about war don’t tend to sit well with audiences, but I guess the star power and the ambiguous ads were enough to coax people into the theaters.  Back in 2005, Jarhead started with $10.5 million on its way to a $27.7 million weekend, giving it an opening weekend multiplier of 2.6.   I would expect a similar degree of liberal frontloadedness for Goats, and a $12 million weekend seems likely.

The Box

I wanted this to really exceed my expectations, but unfortunately, it just met them.  With $2.85 million on Friday, the psychological suspense movie starring Cameron Diaz and James Marsden seems destined for the Wal Mart bargain rack in a few years.  Give the thriller $8 million for the frame.

This Is It and Paranormal Activity

The Michael Jackson documentary, This Is It, held up well on Friday, earning another $4.2 million.  I’m seeing a solid $13 million over three days for this one, good for second place at the box office.  Meanwhile, the freight train that is Paranormal Activity is officially coming to a stop.  The horror film was down 53% from last Friday to just $2.85 million.  An $8.2 million weekend should result.

Friday Estimates for November 6, 2009
1. A Christmas Carol – $9 million
2. The Fourth Kind – $5 million
3. The Men Who Stare At Goats – $4.6 million
4. This Is It – $4.2 million
5. The Box – $2.85 million
6. Paranormal Activity – $2.85 million
7. Couples Retreat – $2 million
8. Law Abiding Citizen – $1.8 million
9. Where The Wild Things Are – $1.2 million
10. Saw VI – $700,000
11. Precious – $585,000

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Weekend Fix: This Is It Takes #1 At The Box Office; Paranormal Activity Continues Its Rampage

November 2, 2009

Friday Estimates: Michael Jackson’s This Is It Doesn’t Live Up To Hype

October 31, 2009

Michael Jackson’s concert film, This Is It, earned $7.4 million on its opening Wednesday, and then followed that up with a steep 50% drop to $3.7 million on Thursday.  Obviously, this is going to be a very frontloaded film, and it will certainly undercut most everyone’s expectations, which had This Is It pegged at earning about $50 million in its first five days.  Now, a five day total of about $30 million seems more likely. 

UPDATE: Friday box office results are now in, and This Is It earned $7.5 million.  Just as the Wednesday/Thursday figures were frontloaded, so should the weekend figures be.  A $20 million weekend seems likely for Jackson’s posthumous documentary, which is far below what Sony was hoping for. Perhaps the film was hurt by the fact that Jackson lacked a large fanbase among young people. Perhaps the film will hold up better than expected over the rest of the weekend. We’ll have to wait and wee, but I wouldn’t count on it.  Paranormal Activity found another solid $6 million on Friday, and it should do very well on Halloween. Its performance will be good for second place, and the horror film that can’t be stopped should find $17 million over the weekend frame.  Meanwhile, Paranormal‘s main victim, Saw VI, could only manage $2 million on Friday, and it’s looking at an awful $6 million second weekend. Keep reading for the very early Friday Estimates:

Friday Estimates for October 30, 2009
1. This Is It – $7.5 million
2. Paranormal Activity – $6 million
3. Couples Retreat – $2.4 million
4. Law Abiding Citizen – $2.4 million
5. Where The Wild Things Are – $2.2 million
6. Saw VI – $2 million

Weekend Preview: This Is It For Michael Jackson’s This Is It

October 30, 2009

Only one new release this weekend, and that is Sony’s Michael Jackson’s This Is It, the documentary about Michael Jackson’s final hours as he prepared for his latest tour.  Watch the video above (you’ll see me getting musical!) to get my prediction for This Is It‘s box office potential.  The rest of the chart should largely look the same as last week.  Paranormal Activity will see a soft drop, as Paramount is adding 457 theaters to its count.  $100 million is all but assured for Paranormal at this point.  Law Abiding Citizen and Couples Retreat will continue their impressive runs with small decreases, while Where The Wild Things Are and (to a greater extent) Saw VI will fall hard.  Read on for my full predictions for this Halloween weekend…

Box Office Predictions for October 30 – November 1, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 Michael Jackson’s This Is It 3,481 $35 million
2 Paranormal Activity 2,402 $15 million
3 Law Abiding Citizen 2,764 $8 million
4 Where The Wild Things Are 2,754 $7 million
5 Couples Retreat 3,027 $6.7 million
6 Saw VI 3,036 $5.8 million
7 Astro Boy 3,020 $4 million
8 The Stepfather 2,346 $3.8 million
9 The Vampire’s Assistant 2,754 $3.2 million
10 Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 2,322 $3.2 million

Friday Estimates: Paranormal Activity Kills The Saw Franchise?

October 24, 2009

This is not good news for the Saw franchise.  Saw VI could only open to $7 million on Friday.  Considering how frontloaded this franchise historically is, this mean were looking at an $18 million weekend.  That’s WAY down from the standard $30 million openings of the Saw franchise.  There’s not great news for The Vampire’s Assistant ($2.3 million), Astro Boy ($2 million), or Amelia ($1.3 million) either.  Paranormal Activity looks like it will take the top spot after a $7.5 million Friday, and it should earn pretty much exactly what I predicted with $21.5 million over the weekend.  In other news, Where The Wild Things Are dropped a huge 63% from last Friday to $4.4 million, and it should pull in $13-14 million over the weekend.  That’s a huge drop for a movie that targeted kids and families… Law Abiding Citizen, meanwhile, fell just 45% to $4.2 million, and it should find $12.5 million over the weekend.  Here are the very early Friday Estimates:

Early Friday Estimates for October 23, 2009
1. Paranormal Activity – $7.5 million
2. Saw VI – $7 million
3. Where The Wild Things Are – $4.4 million
4. Law Abiding Citizen – $4.2 million
5. Couples Retreat – $3.7 million
6. The Vampire’s Assistant – $2.3 million
7. The Stepfather – $2.1 million
8. Astro Boy – $2 million
9. Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs – $1.5 million
10. Zombieland – $1.3 million
11. Amelia – $1.3 million

Weekend Preview: Can Paranormal Activity Scare Away Saw VI’s Audience?

October 23, 2009

Sorry this post is a few hours late, but between Blogger shutting down, a dentist appointment, my internet router crashing, and being generally sick and stuffy, this really is the fastest I could’ve gotten this posted!  Anyway, it’s going to be another busy weekend at the box office in what’s shaping up to be a very healthy October.  New releases include Saw VI, Astro Boy, Cirque Du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant, and Amelia, and Paranormal Activity is getting a major national expansion.  Watch the video above for my box office predictions for these movies, and then check below for my full prediction chart.  It should be a busy, fun weekend at the movies!

Box Office Predictions for October 23-25, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 Saw VI 3,036 $25 million
2 Paranormal Activity 1,945 $21.5 million
3 Where The Wild Things Are 3,735 $16 million
4 The Vampire’s Assistant 2,754 $12 million
5 Law Abiding Citizen 2,890 $11 million
6 Astro Boy 3,014 $10 million
7 Couples Rereat 3,074 $9 million
8 The Stepfather 2,734 $5.2 million
9 Amelia 818 $5 million
10 Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 2,741 $4.8 million

Weekend Fix: Wild Things Ain’t That Wild, Law Abiding Citizen Does Well, Paranormal Activity AMAZES

October 18, 2009

Friday Estimates: Where The Wild Things Are On Top; Law Abiding Citizen Actually Does Well!

October 17, 2009

Some very early Friday Estimates are starting to roll in, and as predicted, Where The Wild Things Are topped the Friday box office with an estimated $11.9 million.  This should guide the Warner Brothers feature to a solid $35 million weekend.  Keep reading to find out how the rest of the box office looked…

Law Abiding Citizen, the critically ravaged prison drama starringJamie Foxx and Gerard Butler, found a surprisingly great $7.7 million on Friday.  I predicted it to earn just $9.5 million, so this is definitely a break out hit. It could be headed to a $20 million weekend.

Paranormal Activity grossed a very good $6.7 million out of 760 theaters on Friday, so it should finish the weekend with an unbelievable $17 million.

Couples Retreat fell 50% from last Friday to $5.8 million, but it should recover over the rest of the weekend and finish with about $19 million.

The Stepfather also exceeded my expectations, finding $4.3 million on Friday, which is far from spectacular, but pretty good when you consider the poor reviews, the weak advertising, and the lack of proven star power.  It might grab $10.5 million over the weekend frame.

It should also be said that the box office is exhibiting a tremendous amount of depth this weekend, as five films are headed to $10+ million weekends! This abundance of ticket sales and great business is kind of random, considering this weekend really only had one high profile release, but hey, in this recession, every economic win is a reason to rejoice!

Box Office Estimates For October 16, 2009
1. Where The Wild Things Are – $11.9 million
2. Law Abiding Citizen – $7.7 million
3. Paranormal Activity – $6.7 million
4. Couples Retreat – $5.8 million
5. The Stepfather – $4.3 million
6. Zombieland – $2.4 million
7. Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs – $2.1 million
8. Toy Story / Toy Story 2 (3D) – $825,000
9. The Invention Of Lying – $605,000
10. Surrogates – $585,000

Weekend Preview: Will Where The Wild Things Are Be The Blockbuster Everyone’s Hoping It Will Be?

October 16, 2009

Okay guys, there have been a couple requests for a traditional Weekend Preview, so this week I decided to do one.  The video above is asking for some feedback on which format you like the best, so please chime in with your opinion in the comments!  This week, three new films hit theaters, but based on buzz,  it almost seems like there’s just one new release.  On the docket we have the very low profile Law-Abiding Citizen and The Stepfather, and the very high profile Where The Wild Things Are.  Keep reading to see my predictions of how each of these movies will perform this weekend.

Where The Wild Things Are – 3,735 theaters – $31.5 million

1. Sorry popular media, but I still say this Warner Brothers movie is too hipster and weird to be a huge mainstream success. 
2. Between the built in fans of the book, the strong advertising campaign, and the ultra-wide release into 3,735 theaters, a solid opening weekend is guaranteed.
3. Reviews are fairly good, but that’s from snobby critics who actually appreciate artistic themes and dour characters (think Donnie Darko).  This film will have masses of teenage fans who say it is the best piece of art they have ever seen, but for the common middle American family, I’m not so sure this plotless dreamscape will be beloved.

Law Abiding Citizen – 2,889 theaters – $9.5 million
1. This film stars Jamie Foxx and Gerard Butler, two movie stars who aren’t exactly box office draws.
2. Unlike the above release, I have seen almost no advertising for this drama, which is about a tyrannical prisoner and a harsh district attorney.
3. The wide release will garner at least some attention, but abysmal reviews will keep the target audience of this (adults) away.

The Stepfather – 2,734 theaters – $6 million

1. I feel like some Screen Gems producers were sitting in a room and said, “Hey, lets make a cheap horror remake and just throw a good looking Gossip Girl star in it!  It’s almost no work on our part!”
2. Unfortunately for the above producers, these poorly reviewed, cheap retreads only do well when supported by a major advertising campaign, which this has not had.
3. The good news for Screen Gems is that I’m sure this movie was inexpensive to make, so even if it fails financially, I’m sure it was a small investment.

Paranormal Activity – 760 theaters – $17 million

1. The little horror film that could expands into 600 more theaters this weekend, and I’d expect a full wide release from Paramount next weekend.
2. Because of the expansion, the blazing $49,000 per theater average of last week is going to come down a bit, but a $21,000 average would still give this an amazing $17 million for the weekend.
3. Based on Paranormal Activity‘s shockingly effective “Demand It” campaign, I’d expect a slew of films to begin trying to use Eventful to make their movies break out.  This seems like a rather unique case, though, and I don’t expect lightning to strike twice.

Among holdovers, Couples Retreat, since it is a widely accessible comedy, should see a friendly second weekend drop of about 45% to $18 million. Zombieland and Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs should keep riding the wave of fantastic word-of-mouth to small drops of 40% and 30%, respectively. My full predictions are below:

Box Office Predictions for October 16-18, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 Where The Wild Things Are 3,735 $31.5 million
2 Couples Retreat 3,009 $18 million
3 Paranormal Activity 760 $17 million
4 Law Abiding Citizen 2,889 $9.5 million
5 Zombieland 3,171 $9 million
6 Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 3,037 $8 million
7 The Stepfather 2,734 $7 million
8 Toy Story / Toy Story 2 (3D) 1,467 $5 million
9 Surrogates 2,326 $2.7 million
10 The Invention Of Lying 1,624 $2 million