Archive for the ‘Hannah Montana The Movie’ Category

DVD Sales: The Office Is The Latest Powerhouse TV Show on DVD

September 22, 2009
<A HREF=”http://ws.amazon.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&MarketPlace=US&ID=V20070822%2FUS%2Ftheboxoffjun-20%2F8010%2F78e1de8c-08dd-4421-a357-a4280e2035bd&Operation=NoScript”>Amazon.com Widgets</A>

The latest DVD Sales Chart is out, so get on in here and check it out, along with my DVD Sales Notes:

DVD Sales Notes:

-Following the strong debut of Heroes last week ($14.6 million so far), and the amazing performance of True Blood this summer ($53.5 million!), The Office – Season Five continued the trend of TV shows performing well on DVD as it sold 407,426 copies in its first week for sales of $13.9 million.  That’s pretty great!  Unfortunately, the super buzzy Fringe: The Complete First Season didn’t breakout as much as Fox would have hoped.  If Supernatural can debut with $8.7 million, Fringe should have been able to do better than $3.8 million.

Crank: High Voltage‘s $5 million opening sales week might seem unimpressive at a first glance, but the Jason Statham action movie only earned $13 million in theaters.  For whatever reason, Statham can not open a movie.  His movies almost never do very well, and yet, they always get sequels, and they always do pretty well on DVD.  I love the guy as an actor, but if I ran a studio, I would not be booking him as a lead.  His career is unique and inexplicable.

-Thomas the Tank Engine is on the chart! Thomas And Friends: Hero of the Rails earned $902,299 in its first week.  This takes me right back to my childhood!

-You know what’s been quietly doing very well for itself on DVD for the past two months?  Fast And Furious! After seven weekends, the relaunch of the action franchise has sold 2.7 million DVDs and earned $45.1 million, which is very solid.

-Can anyone explain to me why Iron Man popped into 15th place after being off the Top 30 chart for a few months?  Was it the Disney/Marvel merger?  Did Iron Man 2 info get released?  Let me know in the comments.  Here’s the full chart:

DVD Sales Chart for the Week Ending September 6, 2009
Rank Title Units this Week % Chg Total Units Sales this Week Total Sales Wks
1 The Office – Season Five 407,426 -.-% 407,426 $13,905,449 $13,905,449 1
2 Crank: High Voltage 283,731 -.-% 283,731 $4,963,278 $4,963,278 1
3 Hannah Montana The Movie 145,655 -47.4% 2,115,161 $2,650,921 $36,027,200 4
4 Fringe: The Complete First Season 103,405 -.-% 103,405 $3,854,938 $3,854,938 1
5 Bring It On: Fight to the Finish 98,719 -62.3% 360,531 $1,944,764 $6,392,950 2
6 State of Play 96,071 -73.0% 451,263 $1,831,113 $7,510,633 2
7 Heroes – Season Three 85,559 -71.9% 390,527 $3,207,607 $14,640,857 2
8 Disney Nature Earth 71,463 -66.3% 283,619 $1,352,080 $4,956,610 2
9 Thomas And Friends: Hero of the Rails 64,496 -.-% 64,496 $902,299 $902,299 1
10 Mickey Mouse Clubhouse: Mickey’s Adventures in Wonderland 60,910 -.-% 60,910 $913,041 $913,041 1
11 Fast And Furious 58,058 -28.2% 2,720,547 $881,111 $45,077,252 7
12 Supernatural – The Complete Fourth Season 57,121 -76.7% 302,168 $2,288,267 $11,212,879 2
13 Coraline 54,840 15.0% 1,824,594 $946,654 $33,750,210 8
14 I Love You, Man 49,787 -41.2% 1,138,730 $959,893 $19,319,666 5
15 Iron Man 46,673 -.-% 9,033,049 $652,241 $161,697,021 50
16 True Blood: The Complete First Season 44,409 -30.0% 1,536,424 $1,531,666 $53,517,279 17
17 Race to Witch Mountain 43,717 -34.0% 1,319,019 $909,182 $23,602,243 6
18 The Last House on the Left 43,065 -48.0% 610,858 $879,387 $12,568,692 4
19 Criminal Minds: The Complete Fourth Season 42,413 -.-% 42,413 $1,517,537 $1,517,537 1
20 Watchmen 41,639 -28.4% 2,146,195 $866,537 $44,922,875 8
21 17 Again 41,313 -44.3% 1,080,224 $827,185 $19,803,345 5
22 Two and a Half Men – The Complete Sixth Season 38,746 -62.3% 141,610 $1,305,740 $3,722,016 2
23 Fighting 37,157 -62.1% 415,833 $742,768 $7,189,646 3
24 Duplicity 36,261 -61.2% 399,532 $719,781 $6,728,469 3
25 Dexter – The Complete Third Season 36,220 -38.7% 499,233 $1,259,732 $12,447,160 4
26 Sons of Anarchy – Season One 34,590 6.5% 207,277 $1,106,534 $6,630,791 4
27 House, M.D. – Season Five 33,857 -64.4% 380,892 $1,503,928 $12,092,733 3
28 Adventureland 31,356 -60.7% 292,228 $620,222 $5,471,050 3
29 Obsessed 29,632 -45.8% 951,628 $528,931 $16,000,122 6
30 Smallville: The Complete Eighth Season 29,624 -48.1% 293,080 $1,080,980 $10,694,489 3
All figures compiled by The-Numbers

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DVD Sales: Hannah Montana Rules The DVD Chart

September 9, 2009

The-Numbers has posted its weekly DVD Sales Chart, and Hannah Montana The Movie utterly dominated the competition.  Surprising?  Not really.  Keep reading for my DVD Sales Notes and the full chart:

DVD Sales Notes:

Hannah Montana The Movie got off to a great start, with a whopping 1.2 million units sold and $20.6 million in sales in its first week.  I’m not sure that Disney will ever strike gold again like they have with Miley Cyrus.  Hannah Montana is utterly pervasive.  Don’t believe me?  Take a walk through a Wal-Mart.

The Last House On The Left, a forgettable horror remake (I had to look it up just to remember what it was, and it came out in March!) debuted on the home market with a fairly good $6.8 million first week.  Generic horror films like this take almost no money to produce, and considering Last House only made $32.7 million in theaters, I’m sure Universal is pleased with this result.

-A few big TV-on-DVD stories this week.  Dexter – The Complete Third Season had a great start, selling almost 300,000 units, and earning a fantastic $6.1 million in its first week.  The Simpsons: The Complete Twelfth Season, which found $5.3 million, Gossip Girl: The Complete Second Series, which earned $3.8 million, and Sons Of Anarchy – Season One, which grossed $2.9 million, all had more modest beginnings.  Still, all these shows pale in comparison to a show with perhaps the palest cast of them all: True Blood: The Complete First Season.  This DVD has sold an absolutely amazing 1.3 million copies and earned $47.1 million.  As a very recent convert to True Blood (I watched the entire first season in two days… very dirty but very addictive), I’m going to be honest: this makes me so happy!  Here’s the full chart:

DVD Sales Chart for the Week Ending August 23, 2009
Rank Title Units this Week % Change Total Units Sales this Week Total Sales Wks
1 Hannah Montana The Movie 1,232,725 -.-% 1,232,725 $20,586,508 $20,586,508 1
2 The Last House on the Left 341,711 -.-% 341,711 $6,830,803 $6,830,803 1
3 Dexter – The Complete Third Season 297,580 -.-% 297,580 $6,076,584 $6,076,584 1
4 I Love You, Man 211,289 -68.7% 886,801 $3,695,445 $14,692,780 2
5 17 Again 178,992 -73.6% 858,035 $3,403,300 $15,428,608 2
6 The Simpsons: The Complete Twelfth Season 166,788 -.-% 166,788 $5,335,548 $5,335,548 1
7 Gossip Girl: The Complete Second Series 104,289 -.-% 104,289 $3,783,605 $3,783,605 1
8 Fast And Furious 103,179 -50.3% 2,497,253 $1,880,736 $41,656,523 4
9 Race to Witch Mountain 101,577 -63.1% 1,139,547 $1,870,327 $20,103,950 3
10 Pete’s Dragon 97,509 -.-% $1,900,450 449
11 Sons of Anarchy – Season One 90,235 -.-% 90,235 $2,886,618 $2,886,618 1
12 Obsessed 70,758 -65.6% 817,162 $1,237,557 $13,637,644 3
13 Coraline 67,060 -36.4% 1,668,869 $1,278,546 $30,838,208 5
14 Watchmen 61,883 -47.7% 1,990,619 $1,419,348 $41,531,579 5
15 The Soloist 57,938 -25.7% 344,765 $885,293 $5,919,989 3
16 Leap Frog: Let’s Go to School 45,611 -.-% 45,611 $569,681 $569,681 1
17 Corpse Bride, The 42,529 -11.7% $366,017 186
18 True Blood: The Complete First Season 38,338 -13.1% 1,352,942 $1,352,565 $47,098,225 14
19 Taken 38,091 10.2% 3,880,386 $605,083 $61,850,323 15
20 Gran Torino 36,735 -34.3% 3,573,261 $559,096 $54,489,786 11
21 Knowing 34,393 -15.2% 1,376,190 $513,144 $20,664,910 7
22 Twilight 34,146 -33.0% 9,088,812 $526,531 $163,231,342 22
23 Woodstock: 3 Days of Peace and Music 30,941 -10.8% $1,130,337 648
24 The Haunting in Connecticut 29,709 -36.2% 798,716 $479,607 $15,910,141 6
25 Miss March 22,206 -.-% 135,725 $332,868 $2,336,658 4
26 The Unborn 21,692 -.-% 506,588 $422,777 $9,147,053 7
27 Princess Protection Program 18,737 -56.8% 549,322 $365,184 $9,344,020 8
28 Family Guy – Volume 7 18,513 -60.0% 539,821 $378,035 $13,477,182 10
29 Fast And Furious 4-Movie Collection 18,385 -.-% 146,675 $762,794 $6,100,091 4
30 Battlestar Galactica: Season 4.5 17,365 -50.2% 283,775 $546,824 $8,998,563 4

The Buzz Meter: Dragonball: Evolution Lives Up To Its Buzz. Unfortunately, That Buzz Was Almost Nonexistent.

April 14, 2009

The experiment continues! In case you forgot, or didn’t see the original post about the Current Cultural Popularity Index, it’s a tool that I slapped together in order to gauge whether films were exceeding the buzz that surrounded them or crumbling beneath it. Well, I’m renaming it this week. It shall heretofore be known as The Buzz Meter. Here’s how it works:

On Friday, I will look up the title of each film in Google News. The number of results that Google News accrues will serve as the News Rating for the Index. I hope all that makes sense. The rest is pretty simple.

Once I have gotten the News Rating for each film, I then look at the weekend gross for each film. Obviously, this will makes up the box office part of the Index. The final step is to divide the weekend box office by the Buzz Rating for each film. This resulting number is something I will call the Current Cultural Popularity Number. The higher the CCPN, the more that a certain film actually matters to audiences at any given time. The CCPN illustrates the extent to which audiences are consuming what the media is presenting them. I will rank the films by their Current Cultural Popularity. Here’s the chart, followed by some notes:


The Buzz Meter
for April 10-12

CCPN
Rank
Movie
Title
Weekend
Box Office
News Rating
(# Of Articles)
Current Cultural
Popularity #
Actual
Rank
1 Hannah Montana The Movie $32,324,487 2,829 11,487 1
2 Fast And Furious $27,237,905 2,829 9,299 2
3 Observe And Report $11,017,334 1,377 8,000 4
4 Dragonball: Evolution $4,756,488 871 5,460 8
5 Monsters Vs. Aliens $21,812,253 8,380 2,603 3
6 Knowing $6,433,433 2,828 2,274 5
7 Sunshine Cleaning $1,733,473
787 2,202 12
8 The Haunting In Connecticut $5,901,215 2,734 2,158 7
9 I Love You, Man $6,280,790 3,449 1,821 8
10 Adventureland $3,353,618 2,687 1,248 9
11 Race To Witch Mountain $1,908,670 1,784 1,070 11
12 Duplicity $2,995,850 3,963 755 10

Hannah Montana The Movie certainly lived up to it’s buzz, with a high CCPN of 11,487, but it’s not nearly the breakout hit that Fast And Furious was with its 25,000 CCPN last week! Just goes to show how absolutely HUGE F&F‘s debut was. It’s still doing well with a nice 9,299

-The fact that Observe And Report and Dragonball: Evolution did rather poorly at the box office yet still have fairly good CCPN’s of 8,000 and 5,460, respectively, shows one thing. The studios did not do a good job of promoting the film and exciting the media, for there were very few articles written for either film. In fact, they had two of the three lowest News Ratings, which is just not okay for a brand new film, especially when Fox paid $100-120 million to produce Dragonball!

Monsters Vs. Aliens has the highest News Rating by FAR, which should push down it’s CCPN, and yet it still has the fifth highest number at 2,603. The massive news exposure and good word-of-mouth from families is helping Monsters Vs. Aliens hold its own.

-Wow, no one but the media cares about Duplicity.

Once again, I’d like to ask you for some feedback. What do you think of the chart? Is it helpful at all or just kind of dumb? I’m genuinely interested in hearing what you think. Please give me some constructive criticism in the comments!

Weekend Fix: Hannah Montana Rules The Easter Roost

April 12, 2009

Sorry about the delay in getting this week’s Weekend Fix posted, but I was at home celebrating my birthday and Easter with my family. It was a great weekend. Anyway, at this point, if you’re a box office follower, you already know that The Hannah Montana Movie crushed the competition with $34 million, Observe And Report underwhelmed with $11.1 million, and Dragonball: Evolution flat out flopped with a very sad $4.6 million. You already know that Fast And Furious dipped a large 59% to $28.7 million, while Monsters Vs. Aliens had a much softer 31% drop to $22.6 million, giving them $118 million and $144 million, respectively. You already know that Knowing and I Love You, Man saw tiny drops of 18% and 17%, further verifying their leggy nature. Thus, because I know that you know these things, because I know that you have other box office websites you visit, because I know that a generic summation of the weekend’s events would be pointless, I’m not going to do a regular write-up. Let me just sum up what I noticed this weekend in a few bullet points:

1. Once again, the fangirls have flexed their box office muscle. With the Twilight DVD already having sold 6 million copies in its first two weeks, and the fantastic $34 million opening of The Hannah Montana Movie, tween girls are proving themselves to be one of the most lucrative audiences in America. Young girls defintely displayed more buying power than the guys Observe And Report was targeting, and certainly more than Dragonball‘s disinterested gamer audience.

2. Miley Cyrus, Tyra Banks, and Taylor Swift are going to take over the world. Honestly, Disney nabbed up all three moguls for The Hannah Montana Movie, and I’m a bit weary of the founding of this triumvirate of power. Seriously, people, we need to be concerned! We live in a country with more women than men, and if these ladies grab enough influence, we might be mandated to sing, dance, make myspace videos, and smile with our eyes until the day we die!

3. Seth Rogen is no Paul Blart. The actor has had a rough run in the recession. Zack And Miri Make A Porno only found $31.4 million last year, and Observe And Report stumbled out of the gate with $11.4 million. It looks like while comedy is in, mean comedy is not. I Love You, Man is just as bawdy, but it’s thriving, probably because it seemed like a whole lot more fun than Observe And Report. We’re in the Era Of Easy Entertainment- audiences don’t want to think too hard, and the Rogen/Faris comedy looked a bit drab and not lighthearted enough.

4. Sunshine Cleaning, after adding 119 theaters, held right where it was last week at $1.8 million dollars. The Amy Adams and Emily Blunt film is becoming a nice, little sleeper hit.

Top 12 For April 10-12
# Movie Title 3-Day Gross % Change AVG. Total
1 Hannah Montana The Movie $34,000,000 New $10,904 $34,000,000
2 Fast And Furious $28,782,880 -59% $8,290 $118,042,070
3 Monsters Vs. Aliens $22,617,000 -31% $5,468 $141,009,000
4 Observe And Report $11,140,000 New $4,085 $11,140,000
5 Knowing $6,670,000 -18% $2,280 $68,006,117
6 I Love You, Man $6,412,000 -17% $2,426 $58,997,000
7 The Haunting In Connecticut $5,710,000 -40% $2,098 $46,300,000
8 Dragonball: Evolution $4,650,000 New $2,132 $4,650,000
9 Adventureland $3,433,000 -40% $1,830 $11,450,000
10 Duplicity $2,996,625 -28% $1,525 $36,848,220
11 Race To Witch Mountain $2,000,000 -38% $921 $62,056,000
12 Sunshine Cleaning $1,804,000 0% $3,017 $7,223,257
All Numbers Provided By Exhibitor Relations Co.

Friday Estimates: Hannah Montana Earns $15 Million On First Day! Biggest Easter Weekend Ever?

April 11, 2009

Steve Mason just posted his exclusive Friday Estimates over at Big Hollywood, and it looks like Hannah Montana The Movie could be headed for a $40+ million weekend! Of course, it will probably be front-loaded, as hordes of tweenage girls rushed out to see the film on opening night, so a $35 million gross seems reasonable. That would put the Disney film as the second-best Easter weekend ever, behind only Scary Movie 4‘s $40 million bow. Between the strength of Hannah Montana and Fast And Furious, which should grab about $28 million over the frame, and Monsters Vs. Aliens, which might find $20 million, we could be looking at the best Easter weekend box office of all time. In less exciting news, Seth Rogen’s Observe And Report underwhelmed with just $4.3 million on Friday, and Dragonball: Evolution flat-out bombed with just $1.9 million. The should find $12 million and $4.5 million, respectively. Here are Steve Mason’s early estimates (how does he get them so fast?!):

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Hanna Montana The Movie (Disney) – $15M, $4,811 PTA, $15M cume
2. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $10M, $2,880 PTA, $99.25M cume
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.1M, $1,958 PTA, $126.5M cume
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $4.25M, $1,558 PTA, $4.25M cume
5. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $1.7M, $625 PTA, $42.28M cume
6. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.11M, $798 PTA, $54.7M cume
7. Knowing (Summit) – $1.95M, $667 PTA, $63.28M cume
8. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $1.92M, $880 PTA, $1.92M cume
9. Adventureland (Miramax) – $1.1M, $586 PTA, $9.11M cume
10. Duplicity (Universal) – $750,000, $382 PTA, $34.6M cume

What do you think of all this box office madness? Did you think Hannah would break out this big, and how much do you think it will finish with this weekend? Let me know in the comments!

What’s Everyone Else Predicting? Box Office Analysts Unite!

April 10, 2009

It’s high time that someone took the initiative and united all the different box office analysts out there! So many great sites are dedicated to studying the trends of the film industry, and I thought it might be nice to put together a chart of all our various box office predictions each week and see how we compare to one another. I’ve placed some links at the top of the chart, so you can read everyone else’s weekend forecasts. What do you think of this idea?

Box Office Analyst Predictions
Film
Title
The Box
Office Junkie
Box Office
Magazine
The-
Numbers
Box Office
Prophets
Box Office
Guru
Slash
Film
Fast And Furious $30.0 M $31.0 $29.5 $27.5 $32.0 $30.0
Hannah Montana The Movie $27.0 M $29.0 $25.0 $22.0 $26.0 $24.6
Monsters Vs. Aliens $20.0 M $21.0 $18.0 $19.6 $21.0 $21.0
Observe And Report $18.0 M $16.0 $15.0 $18.0 $14.0 $19.5
Dragonball: Evolution $11.0 M $7.5 $6.0 $5.0 $8.0 $10.7
I Love You, Man $5.0 M $5.6 $4.4 $4.9
The Haunting In Connecticut $4.8 M $5.3 $4.6 $5.1
Knowing $4.7 M $5.8 $4.7 $4.8
Adventureland $3.5 M $3.9 $2.9 $3.4
Duplicity $2.3 M $2.4 $2.4
Sunshine Cleaning $1.9 M $2.3
Race To Witch Mountain $1.6 M

Weekend Preview: Hannah Montana And Seth Rogen Will Try To Topple Fast And Furious Over The Easter Frame

April 10, 2009

Every once in a while, you’ll see a weekend frame that has two debuting films for which it would be absolutely awesome if you could switch their casts. The last time I remember feeling that way was on October 24-26, 2008, when Saw V and High School Musical 3 both premiered, and this weekend I feel the same way, as Disney’s Miley Cyrus vehicle Hannah Montana The Movie and Seth Rogen’s Observe And Report hit theaters. Those two films will take on reigning champion Fast And Furious in the battle for the Easter crown, and I don’t mean the religious kind. Dragonball: Evolution is also debuting, but it’s not looking like it will make much of an impact.

You may have read a certain devilish post by my unfortunately misguided colleague, Reed, about the inevitable apocalypse that will accompany the debut of Disney’s Hannah Montana The Movie. Well, I’m a bit more optimistic about the situation, so allow me to stick up for the tween sensation. I’ve never picked on Disney and their veritable pantheon of singing/dancing/acting stars like Zac Efron, Selena Gomez, or Miley Cyrus. Considering the sexed-up alternatives (Justin Timberlake, Christina Aguilera, Britney Spears, etc), I’d rather see my little sisters fawn over the clean-cut kids in High School Musical or Hannah Montana any day of the week. Furthermore, I really do think that Disney finds the best of the best when it comes to talent. Say what you will about the company, but they’ve got a pretty great track record when it comes to finding the most talented children (Justin Timberlake, Christina Aguilera, Britney Spears, etc), and despite her occasionally grating public persona, Miley Cyrus is a great entertainer that audiences clearly connect with. She seems to me like a perfectly normal 16 year-old, and I don’t think she’s done anything that any other girl her age hasn’t. Plus, she gets major respect points from me for actually singing live!

Okay, now that I’m done defending Miley Cyrus, let’s focus on her equally (more?) famous alter ego, Hannah Montana, and her chances at the box office this weekend. The Disney Channel has never had a show as successful as Hannah Montana, which has become an industry in its own right. Dolls, video games, soundtracks, concerts, 3-D concert movies- it all just keeps making money! Last year, Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best Of Both Worlds Concert Tour opened to $31 million dollars, but that was with $15 tickets, the 3-D gimmick, and the idea that the film would only be running for one week. Hannah Montana The Movie will be lucky to achieve that high of a number, but it should still find a solid debut. In 2003, Disney’s Hilary Duff vehicle, The Lizzie McGuire Movie earned $17 million in its opening weekend, but Hannah Montana is way bigger than Lizzie McGuire ever was. Marketing has been strong, excitement is high among the core fanbase, and reviews are fine, though I can’t think of a more review-proof film than this one. Rolling into 3,111 theaters, parents will be happen to take their daughters to a film that is guaranteed to be sweet and non-controversial. Give it $28 million over the weekend.

On the completely opposite end of the spectrum is Warner Brothers’ Observe And Report, which looks essentially like an edgy, crude, funny version of Paul Blart: Mall Cop. Starring Seth Rogen as a police officer who takes his mall security very seriously, the film also features the wonderful comedienne Anna Faris. Critics are split on the film, which is currently sitting with a 59% rating at RT. Some are praising Observe And Report for its ballsy approach to comedy, while others disapprove of its blatant meanness and lack of a moral. Historically, audiences prefer conventional humor, and this shounds to me like a film that’s tough to love. Still, Rogen has considerable drawing power (I attribute the underwhelming $31 million finish of Zack And Miri Make A Porno mostly to the title of the film), and other male-oriented comedies like Role Models, Pineapple Express, and I Love You, Man have been successful lately. Debuting in 2,727 theaters, Observe And Report might apprehend about $18 million this weekend.

The final new film debuting this weekend is Fox’s Dragonball: Evolution, which actually seemed like a good idea two years ago. I’ve never seen a film lose steam quite the way that Dragonball has, and excitement over its production has steadily decreased in the past year. Based on the popular TV show, which was in turn based on the popular manga series, Evolution tells the story of a group of powerful individuals all vying to control the Universe by possessing mystical objects called “dragonballs.” Sound silly? That’s because it is. While the TV show definitely created a built-in audience for this flick, bad reviews and general disinterest are going to keep this from becoming a fanboy favorite. The lowish 2,181 theater count doesn’t reveal that Fox has a hue amount of cofidence in Dragonball: Evolution, and I think Goku and the gang should probably come in with about $11 million this weekend.

Fast And Furious should race to the top spot (I made a palindrome!) again this weekend. After its record-breaking $70.9 million debut, it has decelerated pretty quickly throughout the week, and a drop of about 60% seems in order for the actionfest. But at this point, it’s all gravy for the studio, and Paul Walker and Vin Diesel have to be thanking their agents for convincing them to come back to the franchise. Give the Universal effort $30 million, with Hannah Montana hot on its heels. Meanwhile, Monsters Vs. Aliens should benefit from the family friendly nature of Easter weekend, and see a drop of about 35-40%, which would give it $20 million over three days and $138 million overall. It should be a great weekend at the box office! Here are my full predictions:

Predicted Top 12 For April 10-12, 2009
1. Fast And Furious – $30 million
2. Hannah Montana The Movie – $27 million
3. Monsters Vs. Aliens – $20 million
4. Observe And Report – $18 million
5. Dragonball: Evolution – $11 million
6. I Love You, Man – $5 million
7. The Haunting In Connecticut – $4.8 million
8. Knowing – $4.7 million
9. Adventureland – $3.5 million
10. Duplicity – $2.3 million
11. Sunshine Cleaning – $1.8 million
12. Race To Witch Mountain – $1.6 million

Am I totally off base or right on the money with my predictions? And am I crazy for defending Hannah Montana? Let me hear your thoughts and predictions in the comments!

Hannah Montana Hits Theaters, Satan Says "The Time Is Nigh For My Invasion"

April 9, 2009

The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse are saddling up, the moon is turning red, and the Hannah Montana movie is actually being released in theaters across America. Indeed, everything John wrote in Revelations is coming true. This means parents of tweens and boyfriends of those girls that still watch Disney channel and listen to the Jonas brothers (and, oddly, tend to be the sluttiest…strange) will be subjected to the most mind numbingly terrible movie to hit theaters since The Lizzie Mcguire Movie.

I’ve made my love for Disney clear, but I should add there is a limit. And it turns out, that limit is the trend of the Disney Tween.  I can’t see how these kids reach such a high level of stardom. High School Musical is the only musical thousands of people have seen. As a lover of good musicals, I hate it that that has to be at the forefront of the art. Have any of these kids lives ended up well? Lindsay Lohan and Britney Spears have spiraled into a level of whoredom and ‘dumb bitch syndrome’ I didn’t think achievable and Hilary Duff has faded out of the limelight (she should consider herself lucky). The rare exception is Shia Labeouf, but even he sounds like he’s on the verge of an alcoholic breakdown.
Which begs the question: Is Miley Cyrus next? There’s already been leaked photos on the internet of her showing more skin than someone her age should, and she became a common joke when she posed in a magazine hugging her dad’s waist in a slightly too sexual way. She’s rapidly approaching that eighteenth birthday, where I predict there will be a ‘great unraveling’ (both metaphorically, and physically, as her clothes will most certainly be scarce).
Though, I’m not sure we’ll make it there, as it’s clear the Doomsday clock is at ten minutes to midnight awaiting the release of Hannah Montana‘s release. I, for one, will be holed up in my room with food and water, and a gun. Zombies will walk the earth, Apollyon will reign supreme, and the anti-christ will take control (could it be… Zac Efron?!) Very soon we will all be administered the mark of “HM” on our foreheads, and will be forced to live in darkness.
Pray for your souls. Hanna Montana cometh this Easter weekend, as if hell were laughing at the holiday.
P.S. Grady, please don’t kill me.

Hannah Montana Vs. The Jonas Brothers: Disney Channel’s Box Office Battle Royale!

January 13, 2009

Last week, The Walt Disney Company released trailers for two of their highly anticipated spring features. Highly anticipated, that is, if you are a 8-14 year-old girl. Disney has long been in the business of grooming (programming?) an army of massively marketable pop star sensations, but their two biggest success stories come from Miley Cyrus/Hannah Montana and The Jonas Brothers. For the last year, it seems like everything that these kids touch turns into gold, and Disney is wisely striking while the iron is hot, before the tweens move onto the next pop star on the production line.

After the incredible success of 2008’s Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best Of Both Worlds Concert Tour 3-D, which grossed an amazing $65 million, Disney is giving the Jonas Brothers pretty much the exact same treatment, and on February 27, Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience will debut. It’s fascinating how quickly The Jonas Brothers have taken over the tween set, considering just one year ago they were the opening act of the Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus…Tour 3-D. I’d be willing to bet that Disney plans on giving Demi Lovato (who opens for The Jonas Brothers in this film) her own 3D movie in the near future. Here’s the trailer:

Then in April, Miley Cyrus will return to the big screen, but this time, it’s not exactly a concert movie. Giving the wildly popular television show the film treatment, Disney will open Hannah Montana The Movie on April 1o, 2009. Disney successfully did this once before in 2003 with the Hilary Duff vehicle, The Lizzie McGuire Movie, which earned a solid $42 million, but served mostly as a merchandising platform and star-showcase for Miss Duff, who went on to sell millions of records and start a girls fashion line. Hannah Montana The Movie will tell the deep story of the fictional pop star having to move from Hollywood back to her home in Tennessee. The trailer for the film is below. (Watch for the hilarious moment at the end of the trailer, when some random, deep-voiced cowboy encourages you to see the film! )

Here’s what I want to know: Which of these films will earn more? I’m going to give the edge to Hannah Montana The Movie, mostly because Miley Cyrus has established herself as a family fixture for longer than the JoBros, and parents will be more willing to sit through an actual scripted movie, rather than just a concert film. But will either of them be able to outgross Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best Of Both Worlds Concert Tour 3-D? Hmm. This is tough, but I actually don’t think so. Best Of Both Worlds benefited from hefty $15 tickets across the country, and unless Disney pulls a similar stunt this time around, I think the $65 million total will be tough to match. Plus, I think Miley may have already hit her peak last year. I want to hear from you all though! Which film do you think will earn the most? Comment away!

Also, Tyra Banks managed to capture a role, and Taylor Swift is pimping herself out to Disney! You see her in both trailers! She’s trying to play both sides of the fence here, but Taylor, you’ve got to choose: Jonas Brothers or Miley Cyrus- you can’t have it both ways! And why has Disney decided to drop the hyphen in 3D?

The Beginning Of The Year Is Scary: A Decade Of Horror Movies At The Box Office

January 7, 2009

Go grab your flashlight, blanket, and stuffed animal. We’ve reached the doldrums of winter, and on the box office calendar, that means its time for our annual onslaught of horror films. What was once merely regarded as a tough time to release a movie, has in recent years become a veritable dumping ground for studios to release cheaply produced horror films. If people were afraid to the officially label the trend before, there’s simply no denying it in 2009. In the next six weekends, five horror films are coming out. On the docket we have The Unborn, My Bloody Valentine 3-D, Underworld: Rise Of The Lycans, The Uninvited, and Friday The 13th.

We all know that Hollywood never makes bad decisions, so if all these films are being released in the next few weeks, it must be a well documented fact that horror titles in January and February make lots of money, right? To answer that, let’s look at January/February horror releases over the last decade of box office history. Here’s the horrific box office retrospective:

2000
Feb. 4 – Scream 3 – $84 million
Feb. 18 – Pitch Black – $39 million

2001
Feb. 2 – Valentine – $20 million
Feb. 16 – Hannibal – $165 million

2002
Jan. 25 – The Mothman Prophecies – $35 million
Feb. 22 – Queen Of The Damned – $30 million

2003
Jan. 24 – Darkness Falls – $32 million
Jan. 31 – Final Destination 2 – $47 million

2004
Interestingly enough, none.

2005
Jan. 7 – White Noise – $56 million
Jan. 28 – Hide And Seek – $51 million
Feb. 4 – Boogeyman – $46 million

2006
Jan. 6 – Hostel – $47 million
Jan. 20 – Underworld: Evolution – $62 million
Feb. 3 – When A Stranger Calls – $47 million
Feb. 10 – Final Destination 3 – $54 million

2007
Jan. 12 – Primeval – $10 million
Jan. 19 – The Hitcher – $16 million
Feb. 2 – The Messengers – $35 million
Feb. 9 – Hannibal Rising – $27 million

2008
Jan. 4 – One Missed Call – $27 million
Feb. 1 – The Eye – $31 million

2009
Jan. 9 – The Unborn
Jan. 16 – My Bloody Valentine 3-D
Jan. 23 – Underworld: Rise Of The Lycans
Jan. 30 – The Uninvited
Feb. 13 – Friday The 13th (Gimmicky? Yes. But The Omen did make $12 million on 06/06/06…)

There are a couple of trends that I see in these figures. First off, movie titles are getting worse. According to current horror movie titles, if I really wanted to scare you, I should have just named this entry “The Blog Post.” Second, the horror pattern doesn’t really start until 2005. Until the successful debut of White Noise, the early weeks of January seemed off limits to a studio with a horror film. They stuck mostly with family-friendly affair, instead. Third, people were very tired of horror in 2007 and 2008. After years of Japanese remakes and torture-porn flicks, the genre felt stale. Fourth, these movies suck!

Sometimes I wonder why Hollywood is so obsessed with establishing patterns. If 300 can open to $70 million on a random weekend in March, a Hannah Montana concert can earn $30 million over three days in February, and Cloverfield can debut to $40 million in January, doesn’t that do anything to prove that people will go see what they want to see, regardless of its release date? I don’t know why studios feel the need to pigeonhole bad horror movies into these first two months of the year. By consistently releasing sub-par, only-somewhat-scary movies in January and February, Hollywood is conditioning film goers to stay at home. At a certain point, people wise up to the lack of quality. It took them a while with the “____ Movie” movies, and according to the above results, the horror genre is now seeing similar diminishing returns in January and February.

The reason that studios haven’t minded settling with the smallish figures is that these movies are ridiculously cheap to make. They usually make up their small production budgets by the end of their theatrical runs, and it’s pretty much the DVD revenue that earns the studio money. But, oh you foolish movie executives- you could make so much more!

How can the problem be fixed? Start by getting someone to make a really good horror movie, and/or do something truly innovative. Then, release that film whenever you want. It really doesn’t matter. Actually, at this point, it’s probably a little bit better to not release it in January, because people are starting to realize how bad January horror movies usually are. Bottom line: If the movie is good n’ scary and has a solid advertising campaign behind it, people will go see it. (Ex: The Ring)

As far as the 2009 films go, Underworld: Rise Of The Lycans has a small legion of fanboys, Friday The 13th‘s release date plan will probably generate some business, and both films will get a boost since they are part of franchises. As far as the rest of the films go, they’ve all had surprisingly strong advertising campaigns, but 3-D is becoming kind of cliche, and The Uninvited‘s psycho woman plot isn’t as flashy as The Unborn‘s evil dead twin story. Because it’s coming out before the horror glut, I’m giving the slight edge to The Unborn, but I don’t really see any of them breaking out. If they fail, I blame the scheduling completely.

Here’s a good comment question: If you were to combine the RottenTomatoes T-Meter for all five of the horror films debuting in the next two months, what do you predict the total score would be? Will they collectively break 100%? Let me know what you think.