Archive for the ‘Gross’ Category

Friday Estimates: Blind Side Is On Top, Brothers Opens Solidly, Everybody’s Fine Is Anything But

December 5, 2009

Early Friday estimates are in, and you know why I’m excited?  Because it snowing where I live! (Like in the picture above) You know why else I’m excited?  Because Brothers had a pretty solid debut!  Armored and Everybody’s Fine weren’t so lucky.  In the end, though, The Blind Side and New Moon are going to top the box office once again.  Read on for the Friday box office results, along with my notes and early weekend projections.

1. The Blind Side – $6.8 million
The Sandra Bullock football drama that everyone seems to love will rise to number one this weekend.  With almost $7 million on Friday, a $22 million weekend is in the cards. 

2. New Moon – $5.1 million
The emo-vampire flick saw another steep drop on Friday, but it should still find another $16 million this weekend, good for a whopping $256 million total.

3. Brothers – $3.6 million
I gotta say, I’m pretty proud of myself for predicting this one so accurately!  I knew I wasn’t the only one excited for this!  The drama could see an $11 million weekend.  If only I’d done as good of a job predicting Everybody’s Fine…

4. Armored – $2.4 million
The crime caper with surprisingly good reviews found about $2.4 million on Friday, and since this skews to a younger demographic, there should be a slight bit of frontloadedness here.  It should find $7 million over the frame.


5. Old Dogs – $2 million
6. 2012 – $2 million
7. A Christmas Carol – $1.9 million
8. Ninja Assassin – $1.6 million

9. Everybody’s Fine – $1.3 million

Alright, alright.  I’ll admit, I was off in my prediction for this family film, but oh well- it happens!  The Robert De Niro feature will earn around $4 million this weekend.

10. Planet 51 – $1 million

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Friday Estimates: Hannah Montana Earns $15 Million On First Day! Biggest Easter Weekend Ever?

April 11, 2009

Steve Mason just posted his exclusive Friday Estimates over at Big Hollywood, and it looks like Hannah Montana The Movie could be headed for a $40+ million weekend! Of course, it will probably be front-loaded, as hordes of tweenage girls rushed out to see the film on opening night, so a $35 million gross seems reasonable. That would put the Disney film as the second-best Easter weekend ever, behind only Scary Movie 4‘s $40 million bow. Between the strength of Hannah Montana and Fast And Furious, which should grab about $28 million over the frame, and Monsters Vs. Aliens, which might find $20 million, we could be looking at the best Easter weekend box office of all time. In less exciting news, Seth Rogen’s Observe And Report underwhelmed with just $4.3 million on Friday, and Dragonball: Evolution flat-out bombed with just $1.9 million. The should find $12 million and $4.5 million, respectively. Here are Steve Mason’s early estimates (how does he get them so fast?!):

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Hanna Montana The Movie (Disney) – $15M, $4,811 PTA, $15M cume
2. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $10M, $2,880 PTA, $99.25M cume
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.1M, $1,958 PTA, $126.5M cume
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $4.25M, $1,558 PTA, $4.25M cume
5. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $1.7M, $625 PTA, $42.28M cume
6. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.11M, $798 PTA, $54.7M cume
7. Knowing (Summit) – $1.95M, $667 PTA, $63.28M cume
8. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $1.92M, $880 PTA, $1.92M cume
9. Adventureland (Miramax) – $1.1M, $586 PTA, $9.11M cume
10. Duplicity (Universal) – $750,000, $382 PTA, $34.6M cume

What do you think of all this box office madness? Did you think Hannah would break out this big, and how much do you think it will finish with this weekend? Let me know in the comments!

Fast, Furious, And Front-Loaded

April 9, 2009

Current chart-topper, Fast And Furious, earned $30.5 million on its first Friday, on the way to a massive $70.9 million in its opening weekend. That represents a pretty low internal multiplier of 2.32. For those uninitiated to internal multipliers, they are calculated by simply dividing the total weekend gross by the Friday gross. So in this case, $70.9 million/$30.5 million = 2.32 internal multiplier. In general, a fairly typical internal multiplier is about 3.0. Often you’ll see a family film garner a higher multiplier of about 3.5-4.0, and often you’ll see teen and horror films earn something closer to a 2.0-2.5. These internal multipliers are helpful in figuring out the overall multiplier for a film, which is the total gross divided by the opening weekend. (For example, if a film earns $75 million total after opening to $25 million, it would have a multiplier of 3.0, which is again the standard multiplier for most movies.) Internal multipliers pretty much match up with overall multipliers, so I’d expect something around a 2.3 multiplier for Fast And Furious, giving it about $165-170 million when all is said and done.

I only bring this up because I was looking at the Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday box office for Fast And Furious (found right here), and it’s front-loadedness is already quite apparent. Whereas most films saw a 10% increase on Tuesday, F&F fell 9%, and when the rest of the pack fell about 6% on Wednesday, F&F fell 17%. A lot of this is due to the fact that the film opened so huge, and trust me, Universal is more than satisfied with the amount of money Vin Diesel and Paul Walker are raking in, but I expect it to fall pretty quickly from here.

How much do you think Fast And Furious will earn overall?