Archive for the ‘Friday Box Office’ Category

Friday Estimates: Shutter Island Takes Off With $14.1 Million Friday; Everything Else Plummets!

February 20, 2010

Early Friday Estimates are starting to come in, and a few things are abundantly clear (box office figures are after the jump):

1. Shutter Island is off to a good start.  After months of negative buzz, massive delays, release date changes, and general confusion, Shutter Island actually landed on its feet! The Martin Scorsese/Leonardo DiCaprio collaboration earned a robust $14.1 million on Friday, and it could find $36-39 million over the weekend frame.

2. Valentine’s Day is really not all that impressive once Valentine’s Day has passed.  The romantic comedy, which has more stars than a heart-shaped box has chocolates, fell 61% from last Friday to $5.7 million.  A $16-18 million weekend should result.

3. Percy Jackson & The Olympians didn’t hold as well as it needed to in order to ensure a sequel.  The children’s fantasy fell 58% from last Friday to $4 million.  It recover a bit over the rest of the weekend, though, and find $16.5 million overall.

4. Everyone that really wanted to see The Wolfman did so last weekend.  The horror remake dropped an alarming 69% to $2.9 million, and after a solid debut last frame, it will have trouble reaching just $10 million this weekend.  Not good when you take into account the fact that Universal dropped $150 million to make this!

Except for last week’s openers, which are in complete free-fall, the box office performed pretty much as expected, though drops across the board were larger than expected.  Perhaps box office analysts underestimated just how much moviegoing increased over the President’s Day frame, and the inflated grosses of last weekend created unnaturally large decreases this time around.  Perhaps last week’s openers just had audiences that were very excited to rush out and see the films.  Who knows?  Either way, with drops so large, any semblance of “depth” is quickly disappearing from the box office, which is not a good thing for 2010.  Check out the full chart below.

Friday Estimates For February 18, 2010
1. Shutter Island – $14.1 million
2. Valentine’s Day – $5.7 million
3. Percy Jackson & The Olympians – $4 million
4. Avatar – $3.9 million
5. The Wolfman – $2.9 million
6. Dear John – $2.3 million
7. Tooth Fairy – $1.1 million
8. Crazy Heart – $765,000
9. From Paris With Love – $720,000
10. Edge Of Darkness – $615,000

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Friday Estimates: Dear John Goes To Battle And Comes Out On Top!

February 6, 2010

Remember how I mentioned in yesterday’s video that I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Dear John managed to win the weekend?  Well, after a fantastic Friday, it looks like the romantic drama is going to! Dear John earned a tremendous $13.8 million yesterday, and where it heads from here is an interesting question.  I’m guessing Channing Tatum has a substantial number of teen fangirls, who rushed out on Friday to see this film, so it will be fairly frontloaded.  That being said, Dear John should hold better than most every other movie on Super Bowl Sunday.  All told, an awesome $31 million weekend is in store for Dear JohnAvatar came in second with $6.2 million, and while the sci-fi epic will finally give up the top spot, it will still only fall about 25% from last weekend to $23 million, lifting its total to $629 million.  From Paris With Love couldn’t even live up to lowered expectations, and the John Travolta shoot-em-up only grossed $3 million on Friday.  This should lead to a weak $8 million weekend, only slightly more than what Edge Of Darkness will earn in its second weekend.  Otherwise, there’s not too much to report, as things are performing pretty much as expected.  Crazy Heart broke into the Top 10 with $1.1 million on Friday, and the Oscar-nominated release might see a $3.3 million weekend.  Check below for full Friday box office estimates:

Friday Estimates For February 5, 2010
1. Dear John – $13.8 million
2. Avatar – $6.2 million
3. From Paris With Love – $3 million
4. Edge Of Darkness – $2.3 million
5. When In Rome – $2 million
6. Tooth Fairy – $1.7 million
7. The Book Of Eli – $1.5 million
8. Crazy Heart – $1.1 million
9. Legion – $1.1 million
10. Sherlock Holmes – $785,000

Friday Estimates: Here We Go Again… Edge Of Darkness Can’t Dethrone Avatar

January 30, 2010

Early Friday Estimates are coming in, and as predicted, Avatar will be the reigning champ at the box office once again this weekend.  I could spend a long time analyzing every single figure, but let me make things easy for you.  Here’s all you need to know: Avatar earned $7.5 million on Friday.  It should finish with $28-29 million.  Edge Of Darkness opened with an sub-par $5.7 million on Friday.  It should find just $17 million overall, which is below my expectations, showing that audiences are still turned off by Mel Gibson.  When In Rome earned a solid $4.4 million on Friday.  It should reach $13 million, which is slightly above my expectations.  Meanwhile, there weren’t too many surprises in the rest of the Top 10. Tooth Fairy fell 37% from last Friday to $2.3 million, while Legion plummeted 70% to $2 million. They should reach respective grosses of $9 million and $6.5 million this weekend.  My favorite news to report to you, though, is that Alvin And The Chipmunks and Sherlock Holmes should once again be beside each other on the box office chart come Sunday!  The December BFFs have been separated for the past two weeks, but nothing could keep them apart forever, and each of the enduringly popular films will gross about $3.5 million.  Check out the full Top 10 below:

Friday Estimates for January 29, 2010
1. Avatar – $7.5 million
2. Edge Of Darkness – $5.7 million
3. When In Rome – $4.4 million
4. The Book Of Eli – $2.5 million
5. Tooth Fairy – $2.3 million
6. Legion – $2 million
7. The Lovely Bones – $1.4 million
8. Sherlock Holmes – $1.2 million
9. It’s Complicated – $1 million
10. Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel – $810,000

Friday Estimates: Book Of Eli Wins Friday, But Avatar Should Win Weekend; The Lovely Bones Starts Off Strong, Spy Next Door Doesn’t

January 16, 2010

Early Friday estimates are in, and for the first second third time in 28 days, Avatar was dethroned atop the box office chart. (Sherlock Holmes and Alvin took the top spot on their opening days…)  The Book of Eli was the film to finally topple it, and the apocalyptic action movie got off to a good start on Friday, earning $11.7 million, while Avatar found $10.5 million.  It will be a tight race to #1 for the weekend, but because The Book Of Eli is a new release, it should be a bit more frontloaded.  For the four-day weekend Eli might take in $39 million, while Avatar takes in $42 million.

The Lovely Bones had a surprisingly strong debut, grossing a very good $5.7 million on Friday.  I think the other analysts scared me away from a better prediction.  Everyone was saying this would flop, and I hesitated to guess a higher gross.  Still, all the pieces were in place for a good box office run: strong advertising, Peter Jackson, and extremely popular source material.  Oh well, it’s water under the bridge, or blood under the bones, or whatever at this point.  It should earn about $21 million over the four-day weekend.

The Spy Next Door found just $2.3 million on Friday.  (fail)

Sherlock and Alvin are both headed for something around a $13 million weekend, while all the other holdovers are performing jsut as expected.  Check out the full Friday Estimates below:

Early Friday Estimates for January 15, 2010
1. The Book Of Eli – $11.7 million
2. Avatar – $10.5 million
3. The Lovely Bones – $5.7 million
4. Sherlock Holmes – $2.9 million
5. Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel – $2.6 million
6. It’s Complicated – $2.4 million
7. The Spy Next Door – $2.3 million
8. Leap Year – $1.9 million
9. The Blind Side – $1.6 million
10. Up In The Air – $1.5 million

Friday Estimates: Daybreakers Opens Solidly, But Avatar Still 2x Ahead Of Everything Else In 4th Weekend

January 9, 2010

Some very early Friday box office estimates have rolled in, and if you’re getting tired of me writing the same column over and over again, than you may want to stop reading.  To no one’s surprise, Avatar once again topped the chart, and as predicted, it’s falling a bit more softly than the rest of the titles.  With $13.3 million on Friday, Fox’s sci-fi epic is headed for a $45 million weekend, the largest 4th weekend ever at the box office, and a $425 million total by Sunday.  The other December releases are still earning a lot, as well.  Sherlock Holmes will take second place for the weekend, with a projected $17 million gross, and Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel, is headed for a $14 million weekend, and a likely third place.  Still, you and I have both heard this before, so in the interest of being interesting, let’s get to the newcomers…

Daybreakers came in second on Friday, sucking up $5.9 million worth of tickets.  Because it plays to such a niche audience, the vampire thriller is sure to be frontloaded, and it will slip into third or fourth place by the end of the frame with a $13.8 million weekend.  Leap Year wasn’t quite as lucky.  The Amy Adams romantic comedy earned $3.3 million on Friday, and a $9.5 million weekend should result.  Youth In Revolt slightly exceeded my low expectations with $2.7 million on Friday.  The teen sex comedy will probably experience some frontloadedness, since it plays to such a young audience (who love to rush out to the movies every Friday night), Youth In Revolt may find $6.5 million this weekend.  Check out the full Friday box office below:

Early Friday Estimates for January 8, 2010
1. Avatar – $13.3 million
2. Daybreakers – $5.9 million
3. Sherlock Holmes – $5.1 million
4. Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel – $3.4 million
5. Leap Year – $3.2 million
6. It’s Complicated – $3.1 million
7. Youth In Revolt – $2.7 million
8. The Blind Side – $2.2 million
9. Up In The Air – $2 million
10. The Princess And The Frog – $954,000

Friday Estimates: Sherlock And Avatar Both Earn $24 Million On Christmas Day! Who’s Gonna Win?

December 26, 2009

What a weekend this is shaping up to be! I did not expect Sherlock Holmes to garner these sorts of huge numbers, but the Guy Ritchie reboot has found a major audience on Christmas Day.  The detective/action hero movie found a massive $24 $25 million on Friday, but will it be able to hold off Avatar, which earned the same amount, over the rest of the weekend?  I don’t think so…

It’s a bit hard to say how movies will do over the rest of the weekend because there hasn’t been a Christmas Day on a Friday in about twenty years. On top of that, the trend of going to the movies on Christmas is relatively recent- it wasn’t always a huge day at the box office! Now, it’s one of the biggest of the year! That being said, speculating about the box office is what I do best, so here’s my take on the weekend:

Avatar has already been out for a week, so the die-hard fans have had their chance to see it. On top of that, the word-of-mouth is amazing.  (Even my grandparents were talking about it yesterday!) Therefore, it should see a more typical Saturday box office increase than Sherlock Holmes will. If Avatar see’s a 2.9 weekend multiplier (reduced because of the Christmas Day bump), it will earn a fantastic $70 million this weekend. Sherlock Holmes can probably manage a 2.6 multiplier, which would give the flick a pretty great $64 million start.

That movie about chipmunks (I won’t mention its name) managed to steal $12 million worth of tickets from the American public, which, let’s be honest, is a travesty. After grossing $27 million on Wednesday and Thursday, a weekend of $37 million is probably in order. That makes me very sad, especially because it knocked The Princess And The Frog‘s box office down to just $2 million on Friday. Disney isn’t happy, I’m sure.

But the movies weren’t totally dominated by young people this weekend! Adult fare did pretty well too! It’s Complicated earned $7.5 million on Friday, and the Meryl Streep and Alec Baldwin rom-com could see $22 million over the weekend. That’s certainly better than Did You Hear About The Morgans? did last weekend. Up In The Air, riding high on awards buzz, grossed $4 million in its first Friday in wide release. A $12 million weekend should result. Nine failed to really break out on Friday, grossing just $2.2 million. Perhaps it was the mixed reviews that did Nine in, or maybe it was the fact that the advertisements failed to explain what this movie was about. Either way, a $6 million weekend isn’t anything to sing about. Check out the full Friday box office chart below, and for more box office updates, follow me on Twitter!

Early Friday Estimates for December 25, 2009
1. Sherlock Holmes – $24 million
2. Avatar – $24 million
3. Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakuel – $12 million
4. It’s Complicated – $7.5 million
5. Up In The Air – $4 million
6. The Blind Side – $4 million
7. Nine – $2.2 million
8. The Princess And The Frog – $2 million
9. Did You Hear About The Morgans – $1.6 million
10. Invictus – $1.3 million

Friday Estimates: Blind Side Is On Top, Brothers Opens Solidly, Everybody’s Fine Is Anything But

December 5, 2009

Early Friday estimates are in, and you know why I’m excited?  Because it snowing where I live! (Like in the picture above) You know why else I’m excited?  Because Brothers had a pretty solid debut!  Armored and Everybody’s Fine weren’t so lucky.  In the end, though, The Blind Side and New Moon are going to top the box office once again.  Read on for the Friday box office results, along with my notes and early weekend projections.

1. The Blind Side – $6.8 million
The Sandra Bullock football drama that everyone seems to love will rise to number one this weekend.  With almost $7 million on Friday, a $22 million weekend is in the cards. 

2. New Moon – $5.1 million
The emo-vampire flick saw another steep drop on Friday, but it should still find another $16 million this weekend, good for a whopping $256 million total.

3. Brothers – $3.6 million
I gotta say, I’m pretty proud of myself for predicting this one so accurately!  I knew I wasn’t the only one excited for this!  The drama could see an $11 million weekend.  If only I’d done as good of a job predicting Everybody’s Fine…

4. Armored – $2.4 million
The crime caper with surprisingly good reviews found about $2.4 million on Friday, and since this skews to a younger demographic, there should be a slight bit of frontloadedness here.  It should find $7 million over the frame.


5. Old Dogs – $2 million
6. 2012 – $2 million
7. A Christmas Carol – $1.9 million
8. Ninja Assassin – $1.6 million

9. Everybody’s Fine – $1.3 million

Alright, alright.  I’ll admit, I was off in my prediction for this family film, but oh well- it happens!  The Robert De Niro feature will earn around $4 million this weekend.

10. Planet 51 – $1 million

Friday Estimates: The Blind Side And Everything Else Has A Lot To Be Thankful For This Weekend!

November 28, 2009

Thanksgiving Weekend’s Friday box office numbers are finally in, and we are seeing some major  activity at the movies.  New Moon held about as expected, but The Blind Side is blowing up, surpassing even my very high expectations! In fact, pretty much everything is doing better than expected this weekend!  There is a lot of money being made, and it makes you wish that that were the case in the rest of the economy… Anyway, let’s go over this movie by movie:

1. New Moon – $17.9 million

This is a bit below what I was predicting that this would do on Friday.  The vampire blockbuster is looking at a $48 million weekend and $238 million by the end of the frame.

2. The Blind Side – $16.2 million

Here’s the real story of the weekend.  The Blind Side is up a huge 46% from last Friday, and that’s based on strong word-of-mouth alone!   Most analysts were conservative, saying The Blind Side might earn $26-27 million this weekend.  I went way beyond that and predicted a $38 million weekend, but it’s even exceeding my predictions!  The beloved Sandra Bullock football film is giving New Moon a run for its money this weekend, but it should finish in second this frame with a ridiculously strong $40 million.  That would give it $100 million after just ten days.  Wow.

3. 2012 – $7 million

Also held up pretty well this weekend.  A small weekend decline to $19 million seems in order. While this hasn’t been magnificently huge in the US, worldwide, this has already earned $476 million.

4. Old Dogs – $6.85 million

This has a good shot at surpassing 2012 for the #3 spot.  Family films tend to blow up on Saturday and Sunday, so I’m expecting $22 million over the weekend.

5. A Christmas Carol – $6.6 million

About time this started to show some signs of life!  Now that people are actually in the mood for a Christmas movie, this should recover a bit after its lackluster start.  A $18 million weekend will help A Christmas Carol quite a bit, as will the small December declines, but in my opinion, it’s just too little too late for the absurdly expensive feature.

6. Ninja Assassin – $5.7 million

This is definitely a better result than I was thinking.  Ninja Assassin already earned $7.9 million on Wednesday and Thursday, so a likely $15 million weekend will bring its 5-day total to about $23 million.

7. Planet 51 – $4.1 million

Actually improved upon its last Friday, but I’m sorry: I just didn’t care last weekend, and I don’t care this weekend.

8. Fantastic Mr. Fox – $3 million

The Wes Anderson animated film isn’t going to break any records, and I’m not about to call it a huge hit, but it might actually earn double digits this weekend.  $8.5 million seems to be in the cards for the inventive picture.

9. Precious – $2.8 million

Maybe this is finally showing some signs of losing a bit of steam.  Once award nominations start up (and the Precious-themed Oprah episode airs) this should pick back up.  Still, $7.5 million ain’t bad at all for a film in 663 theaters.

10. The Men Who Stare At Goats – $630,000

Told’ya this would be a front-loaded liberal fanboy movie!  It started off okay with $12.7 million, but it’s barely going to pass $30 million total this weekend.

11. The Road – $560,000

People who love this film will gloat about its “amazing” box office, saying that it’s only in 111 theaters and earned $560,000 this weekend. But if people were hoping this would break out and be a big hit, then I’m sorry to say that they’re in for some bad news.  The Road is going to need a lot more than a $1.6 million weekend and a $16,000 per theater average to merit much expansion and promotion, and that looks to be where the grim film is headed.

12. The Princess And The Frog – $277,000

This is an astounding figure.  Out of 2 theaters, The Princess And The Frog captured all that money.  While this does bode very well for the film’s future, we have to keep in mind that people were paying about $30 for each ticket…