Archive for the ‘Estimates’ Category

Weekend Preview: Edge Of Darkness Aims To Shoot Down Avatar; When In Rome Just Hopes That Somebody Will Love It

January 29, 2010

Fellow box office junkies, this could be it.  The time may have come.  We may actually have a movie that can take the #1 spot from Avatar.  Will it happen?  Probably not, but we can dream, right? This week, two new films are entering theaters, and they couldn’t be more different.  On the one hand, we’ve got the relatively well reviewed, R-rated, revenge thriller Edge Of Darkness, and on the other hand, we have the critically savaged romantic comedy When In Rome.  Despite the new openers, though, the box office should once again look pretty similar to last week, since 2010 really hasn’t produced any spectacularly box office performers yet.  Avatar will probably stay on top, though last week’s #2 movie, Legion, will plummet.  Tooth Fairy and Extraordinary Measures might hold a little bit better, but overall, this isn’t going to be the most exciting weekend at the movies.  To see my predictions of the new wide releases (and hear some analysis of Christian movie To Save A Life as well), watch the video above (it’s coming), and then check below for my full box office predictions.

Box Office Predictions for January 29-31, 2010
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 Avatar 3,074 $28 million
2 Edge Of Darkness 3,066 $25 million
3 When In Rome 2,456 $9.2 million
4 Tooth Fairy 3,345 $9 million
5 The Book Of Eli 3,075 $8.8 million
6 Legion 2,476 $6.5 million
7 The Lovely Bones 2,638 $5 million
8 Sherlock Holmes 2,250 $4.4 million
9 Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 2,526 $4.1 million
10 It’s Complicated 2,096 $3.9 million

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Friday Estimates: Daybreakers Opens Solidly, But Avatar Still 2x Ahead Of Everything Else In 4th Weekend

January 9, 2010

Some very early Friday box office estimates have rolled in, and if you’re getting tired of me writing the same column over and over again, than you may want to stop reading.  To no one’s surprise, Avatar once again topped the chart, and as predicted, it’s falling a bit more softly than the rest of the titles.  With $13.3 million on Friday, Fox’s sci-fi epic is headed for a $45 million weekend, the largest 4th weekend ever at the box office, and a $425 million total by Sunday.  The other December releases are still earning a lot, as well.  Sherlock Holmes will take second place for the weekend, with a projected $17 million gross, and Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel, is headed for a $14 million weekend, and a likely third place.  Still, you and I have both heard this before, so in the interest of being interesting, let’s get to the newcomers…

Daybreakers came in second on Friday, sucking up $5.9 million worth of tickets.  Because it plays to such a niche audience, the vampire thriller is sure to be frontloaded, and it will slip into third or fourth place by the end of the frame with a $13.8 million weekend.  Leap Year wasn’t quite as lucky.  The Amy Adams romantic comedy earned $3.3 million on Friday, and a $9.5 million weekend should result.  Youth In Revolt slightly exceeded my low expectations with $2.7 million on Friday.  The teen sex comedy will probably experience some frontloadedness, since it plays to such a young audience (who love to rush out to the movies every Friday night), Youth In Revolt may find $6.5 million this weekend.  Check out the full Friday box office below:

Early Friday Estimates for January 8, 2010
1. Avatar – $13.3 million
2. Daybreakers – $5.9 million
3. Sherlock Holmes – $5.1 million
4. Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel – $3.4 million
5. Leap Year – $3.2 million
6. It’s Complicated – $3.1 million
7. Youth In Revolt – $2.7 million
8. The Blind Side – $2.2 million
9. Up In The Air – $2 million
10. The Princess And The Frog – $954,000

Weekend Preview: Daybreakers, Leap Year, And Youth In Revolt Unlikely To Dethrone December Triumvirate

January 8, 2010

After a week of no new releases, three films enter theaters today.  We’ve got the vampire thriller Daybreakers, the romantic comedy Leap Year, and the sex comedy Youth In Revolt.  While at least two of these films should fare pretty well at the box office, none of them are likely to dethrone the ├╝ber-popular triumvirate of Avatar, Sherlock Holmes, and Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel, which have been unstoppable since late December.  Now that the holidays are officially over, expect drops in the 50% range for most returning films, though Avatar should see a bit softer of a fall, as it’s becoming quite the phenomenon around the world.  Check out the video above to hear my predictions for the newcomers, then check out the chart below to see my full weekend forecast:

Box Office Predictions for January 8-10, 2010
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 Avatar 3,326 $42.5 million
2 Sherlock Holmes 4,124 $18 million
3 Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 2,088 $17 million
4 Daybreakers 2,133 $15 million
5 Leap Year 2,546 $12 million
6 It’s Complicated 3,220 $8.8 million
7 Youth In Revolt 3,425 $6.2 million
8 The Blind Side 1,915 $6 million
9 Up In The Air 2,503 $5.6 million
10 Planet 51 2,904 $5.1 million

Weekend Preview: Everybody’s Fine, Brothers, and Armored Won’t Tackle The Blind Side

December 4, 2009

The weekend after Thanksgiving is traditionally a pretty slow one at the box office, and this year shouldn’t be any different, though the addition of four new releases should add some depth to the frame.  Opening this week is Everybody’s Fine, Armored, Brothers, and Transylmania, which was getting a wide release but has since been reported as having just a limited one. (By the way, let me just say that I love one-word movie titles because they are so easy to highlight!)  It’s very unlikely that any of these newcomers will be able to take down New Moon or The Blind Side, which should trade spots atop the chart this week.  To hear my predictions for this week’s new releases, simply watch the video above, then check the chart below to see my full predictions for the week.

Box Office Predictions for December 4-6, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 The Blind Side 3,326 $23 million
2 The Twilight Saga: New Moon 4,124 $18 million
3 Brothers 2,088 $11 million
4 Everybody’s Fine 2,133 $9 million
5 A Christmas Carol 2,546 $8.6 million
6 2012 3,220 $7.7 million
7 Old Dogs 3,425 $7.3 million
8 Armored 1,915 $7 million
9 Ninja Assassin 2,503 $5.3 million
10 Planet 51 2,904 $5.1 million

Weekend Fix: With New Moon’s $142.8M Debut, Vampires Are One Step Closer To World Domination

November 22, 2009

Star Trek: $7 Million From Thursday Showings!

May 8, 2009

Just pulled this little tidbit from Nikkie Finke over at DHD:

FRIDAY 10:50 AM: Sources tell me that Thursday screenings starting at 7 PM, including midnight shows, made approximately $7 million for Star Trek. “There was a big core fan turnout,” one of my insiders says, “so you can’t extrapolate to weekend numbers.” Nevertheless, it’s a great start.

Star Trek‘s $7 million figure is very good, but doesn’t signify a monster box office over the weekend, and I’m still feeling confident about my original $67 million prediction for Thursday through Sunday. Vote using the poll on the right sidebar to guess how much it will earn this weekend, and keep checking back over the weekend to see how Star Trek is doing!

Weekend Fix: Paul Blart Gets Taken Down!

February 1, 2009

Hey guys, I’m down with some kind of flu and not feeling too great, and I want to be ready for the Super Bowl tonight, so there won’t be much analysis today. All you really need to know is that Taken had a great weekend ($24.5 million), The Uninvited ($10.5 M) and New In Town ($6.7 M) were relative disappointments, and something finally removed Paul Blart ($14 M) from the top spot. All is well in the world again. Here are the full weekend numbers:

WAIT! For some reason, I feel obligated to give Hotel For Dogs a shout out. After it’s so-so opening of $17.7 million a couple weeks back, it’s been a very solid performer, dropping just 27% last weekend, and 32 % this weekend, for a not-half-bad $48 million total. Okay, now, onto the weekend numbers:

Top 12 For January 30-February 1
# Movie Title 3-Day Gross % Change AVG. Total
1 Taken $24,625,000 New $7,736 $24,625,000
2 Paul Blart: Mall Cop $14,000,000 -35% $4,367 $83,375,000
3 The Uninvited $10,512,000 New $4,485 $10,512,000
4 Hotel For Dogs $8,706,000 -32% $2,755 $48,229,000
5 Gran Torino $8,600,000 -47% $2,852 $110,547,000
6 Slumdog Millionaire $7,680,000 -28% $4,703 $67,244,456
7 Underworld: Rise Of The Lycans $7,200,000 -65% $2,447 $32,784,000
8 New In Town $6,750,000 New $3,478 $6,750,000
9 My Bloody Valentine: 3D $4,260,000 -58% $3,030 $44,610,000
10 Inkheart $3,700,000 -51% $1,394 $12,792,000
11 The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button $3,611,000 -41% $1,698 $116,540,000
12 Bride Wars $3,570,000 -48% $1,798 $53,936,587
All Numbers Provided By Exhibitor Relations Co.

What do you think about the weekend? Is Puffy Face (Renee Zellweger) in need of a major career revival? Have you seen Taken? And Lost fans, are you excited to see Maggie Grace (Shannon) find box office success with Taken? I know I am!

Weekend Preview: Can The Uninvited Take Down Taken On Super Bowl Weekend?

January 30, 2009


It’s Super Bowl Weekend this weekend, and in terms of the box office, that means it’s time for counter-programming. With every man in the U.S. glued to the sofa on Sunday, studios traditionally hope to release movies that will engage female viewers. But the curious thing about this year is that among the three new releases, it seems that the harder they target women, the less box office potential they have. Opening this week is the male oriented action film, Taken, a psycho-stepmom horror flick, The Uninvited, and a generic romantic comedy, New In Town. Strangely enough, as the subject matter gets girlier, the receipts should be lower.

The number one film this weekend will be Fox’s Taken, which is getting a huge release into 3,183 theaters. The film, which stars Liam Neeson, will have to make almost all of its money on Friday and Satruday, since the Super Bowl will absolutely obliterate ticket sales. Taken tells the story of a retired CIA agent, who must rescue his daughter and her friend when they are abducted in France. Besides Neeson, the film stars two beautiful actresses who have been written off popular TV shows, Maggie Grace (killed off of Lost) and Famke Jansen (her character left when she turned out to be a man on Nip/Tuck). Despite the lack of Sunday box office, awareness is pretty good for this one, advertising has been effective, and it’s got some fairly good reviews. All of this should lead to a nice $19 million weekend.

The only other newcomer competing for the top spot this weekend is The Uninvited, the latest in what has become a veritable parade of horror movies this January. The feature from Paramount stars Elizabth Banks as a woman who comes to tend to a sick father’s bedside. All of the sudden, though, the man’s wife has died, and he has become engaged to this younger woman. His daughters are creeped out by the new fling, and they set out to get to the bottom of what’s going on. It’s a mixture of a ghost story and a psychotic stepmom story. The advertising on this has been strong and highly effective, giving audiences a good idea of the plot. Also, with a PG-13 rating, and three central female characters, this seems like a horror release that is woman-friendly, which should help it a bit this weekend. For a movie of this genre, reviews aren’t bad, and earlier in January The Unborn, My Bloody Valentine: 3D, and Underworld: Rise Of The Lycans all managed to open in the $19-22 million range, and while the Super Bowl will take that dwn a notch, I don’t why audiences would have just suddenly gotten tired of horror again. Almost every other box office prediction is giving this an $11-12 million opening, but I think The Uninvited, which is flying into 2,344 theaters, is looking at $17 million over the weekend.

The final new release of the weekend is the only offering that is truly targeting women, but its prospects are still looking grim. New In Town is a romantic “comedy” from Lionsgate starring Puffy Face herself, Renee Zellweger, and Harry Connick Jr.. (I will admit that she looks a bit less “puffy” in this movie, so maybe she’s taking it easy on the botox…) The plot here is so thin that I won’t even go over it, but suffice it to say, it looks terrible. Like Bride Wars terrible. I’m pretty sure winning the Oscar for Best Actress is actually a curse that makes all of your following films extremely bad, because I don’t see why else Zellweger would sign on to this. I guess she just needs work like anyone else. Reviews are awful, it’s getting a release of 1,941 theaters, and there’s been minimal advertising for this stinker. Give New In Town $6.5 million for the frame.

Among holdovers, Paul Blart: Mall Cop is still very much a force to be reckoned with. Since the Sandler-produced comedy is a film geared at young males, it will drop a bit harder this weekend, but a 45% drop will still give it $12 million for the weekend, and $80 million overall. Clint Eastwood’s box office stalwart, Gran Torino, will continue its great run, and a 40% drop will put the film at $10 million for the weekend and $111 total. Given the geek factor and the Super Bowl factor, Underworld: Rise Of The Lycans should see a fanboy-style drop of about 60% to $8 million. Meanwhile, Slumdog Millionaire should continue its increible resilience as it expands into about 200 more theaters, which might give it a sweet 12th weekend of $8 million. Here’s my full forecast for the weekend:

Predicted Top 12 For January 30-February 1
1. Taken – $19 million
2. The Uninvited – $17 million
3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $12 million
4. Gran Torino – $10 million
5. Underworld: Rise Of The Lycans – $8 million
6. Slumdog Millionaire – $8 million
7. Hotel For Dogs – $7.5 million
8. New In Town – $6.5 million
9. The Curious Case Of Benajmin Button – $4.5 million
10. My Bloody Valentine: 3D – $4.3 million
11. Bride Wars – $4 million
12. Inkheart – $3 million

What do you all think of my forecast? Does it make sense, or am I as hopeless as The Cardinals on Sunday? Let’s hear your predictions in the comments! Go Steelers!