Archive for the ‘Dragonball: Evolution’ Category

The Buzz Meter: Dragonball: Evolution Lives Up To Its Buzz. Unfortunately, That Buzz Was Almost Nonexistent.

April 14, 2009

The experiment continues! In case you forgot, or didn’t see the original post about the Current Cultural Popularity Index, it’s a tool that I slapped together in order to gauge whether films were exceeding the buzz that surrounded them or crumbling beneath it. Well, I’m renaming it this week. It shall heretofore be known as The Buzz Meter. Here’s how it works:

On Friday, I will look up the title of each film in Google News. The number of results that Google News accrues will serve as the News Rating for the Index. I hope all that makes sense. The rest is pretty simple.

Once I have gotten the News Rating for each film, I then look at the weekend gross for each film. Obviously, this will makes up the box office part of the Index. The final step is to divide the weekend box office by the Buzz Rating for each film. This resulting number is something I will call the Current Cultural Popularity Number. The higher the CCPN, the more that a certain film actually matters to audiences at any given time. The CCPN illustrates the extent to which audiences are consuming what the media is presenting them. I will rank the films by their Current Cultural Popularity. Here’s the chart, followed by some notes:


The Buzz Meter
for April 10-12

CCPN
Rank
Movie
Title
Weekend
Box Office
News Rating
(# Of Articles)
Current Cultural
Popularity #
Actual
Rank
1 Hannah Montana The Movie $32,324,487 2,829 11,487 1
2 Fast And Furious $27,237,905 2,829 9,299 2
3 Observe And Report $11,017,334 1,377 8,000 4
4 Dragonball: Evolution $4,756,488 871 5,460 8
5 Monsters Vs. Aliens $21,812,253 8,380 2,603 3
6 Knowing $6,433,433 2,828 2,274 5
7 Sunshine Cleaning $1,733,473
787 2,202 12
8 The Haunting In Connecticut $5,901,215 2,734 2,158 7
9 I Love You, Man $6,280,790 3,449 1,821 8
10 Adventureland $3,353,618 2,687 1,248 9
11 Race To Witch Mountain $1,908,670 1,784 1,070 11
12 Duplicity $2,995,850 3,963 755 10

Hannah Montana The Movie certainly lived up to it’s buzz, with a high CCPN of 11,487, but it’s not nearly the breakout hit that Fast And Furious was with its 25,000 CCPN last week! Just goes to show how absolutely HUGE F&F‘s debut was. It’s still doing well with a nice 9,299

-The fact that Observe And Report and Dragonball: Evolution did rather poorly at the box office yet still have fairly good CCPN’s of 8,000 and 5,460, respectively, shows one thing. The studios did not do a good job of promoting the film and exciting the media, for there were very few articles written for either film. In fact, they had two of the three lowest News Ratings, which is just not okay for a brand new film, especially when Fox paid $100-120 million to produce Dragonball!

Monsters Vs. Aliens has the highest News Rating by FAR, which should push down it’s CCPN, and yet it still has the fifth highest number at 2,603. The massive news exposure and good word-of-mouth from families is helping Monsters Vs. Aliens hold its own.

-Wow, no one but the media cares about Duplicity.

Once again, I’d like to ask you for some feedback. What do you think of the chart? Is it helpful at all or just kind of dumb? I’m genuinely interested in hearing what you think. Please give me some constructive criticism in the comments!

Weekend Fix: Hannah Montana Rules The Easter Roost

April 12, 2009

Sorry about the delay in getting this week’s Weekend Fix posted, but I was at home celebrating my birthday and Easter with my family. It was a great weekend. Anyway, at this point, if you’re a box office follower, you already know that The Hannah Montana Movie crushed the competition with $34 million, Observe And Report underwhelmed with $11.1 million, and Dragonball: Evolution flat out flopped with a very sad $4.6 million. You already know that Fast And Furious dipped a large 59% to $28.7 million, while Monsters Vs. Aliens had a much softer 31% drop to $22.6 million, giving them $118 million and $144 million, respectively. You already know that Knowing and I Love You, Man saw tiny drops of 18% and 17%, further verifying their leggy nature. Thus, because I know that you know these things, because I know that you have other box office websites you visit, because I know that a generic summation of the weekend’s events would be pointless, I’m not going to do a regular write-up. Let me just sum up what I noticed this weekend in a few bullet points:

1. Once again, the fangirls have flexed their box office muscle. With the Twilight DVD already having sold 6 million copies in its first two weeks, and the fantastic $34 million opening of The Hannah Montana Movie, tween girls are proving themselves to be one of the most lucrative audiences in America. Young girls defintely displayed more buying power than the guys Observe And Report was targeting, and certainly more than Dragonball‘s disinterested gamer audience.

2. Miley Cyrus, Tyra Banks, and Taylor Swift are going to take over the world. Honestly, Disney nabbed up all three moguls for The Hannah Montana Movie, and I’m a bit weary of the founding of this triumvirate of power. Seriously, people, we need to be concerned! We live in a country with more women than men, and if these ladies grab enough influence, we might be mandated to sing, dance, make myspace videos, and smile with our eyes until the day we die!

3. Seth Rogen is no Paul Blart. The actor has had a rough run in the recession. Zack And Miri Make A Porno only found $31.4 million last year, and Observe And Report stumbled out of the gate with $11.4 million. It looks like while comedy is in, mean comedy is not. I Love You, Man is just as bawdy, but it’s thriving, probably because it seemed like a whole lot more fun than Observe And Report. We’re in the Era Of Easy Entertainment- audiences don’t want to think too hard, and the Rogen/Faris comedy looked a bit drab and not lighthearted enough.

4. Sunshine Cleaning, after adding 119 theaters, held right where it was last week at $1.8 million dollars. The Amy Adams and Emily Blunt film is becoming a nice, little sleeper hit.

Top 12 For April 10-12
# Movie Title 3-Day Gross % Change AVG. Total
1 Hannah Montana The Movie $34,000,000 New $10,904 $34,000,000
2 Fast And Furious $28,782,880 -59% $8,290 $118,042,070
3 Monsters Vs. Aliens $22,617,000 -31% $5,468 $141,009,000
4 Observe And Report $11,140,000 New $4,085 $11,140,000
5 Knowing $6,670,000 -18% $2,280 $68,006,117
6 I Love You, Man $6,412,000 -17% $2,426 $58,997,000
7 The Haunting In Connecticut $5,710,000 -40% $2,098 $46,300,000
8 Dragonball: Evolution $4,650,000 New $2,132 $4,650,000
9 Adventureland $3,433,000 -40% $1,830 $11,450,000
10 Duplicity $2,996,625 -28% $1,525 $36,848,220
11 Race To Witch Mountain $2,000,000 -38% $921 $62,056,000
12 Sunshine Cleaning $1,804,000 0% $3,017 $7,223,257
All Numbers Provided By Exhibitor Relations Co.

Friday Estimates: Hannah Montana Earns $15 Million On First Day! Biggest Easter Weekend Ever?

April 11, 2009

Steve Mason just posted his exclusive Friday Estimates over at Big Hollywood, and it looks like Hannah Montana The Movie could be headed for a $40+ million weekend! Of course, it will probably be front-loaded, as hordes of tweenage girls rushed out to see the film on opening night, so a $35 million gross seems reasonable. That would put the Disney film as the second-best Easter weekend ever, behind only Scary Movie 4‘s $40 million bow. Between the strength of Hannah Montana and Fast And Furious, which should grab about $28 million over the frame, and Monsters Vs. Aliens, which might find $20 million, we could be looking at the best Easter weekend box office of all time. In less exciting news, Seth Rogen’s Observe And Report underwhelmed with just $4.3 million on Friday, and Dragonball: Evolution flat-out bombed with just $1.9 million. The should find $12 million and $4.5 million, respectively. Here are Steve Mason’s early estimates (how does he get them so fast?!):

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Hanna Montana The Movie (Disney) – $15M, $4,811 PTA, $15M cume
2. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $10M, $2,880 PTA, $99.25M cume
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.1M, $1,958 PTA, $126.5M cume
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $4.25M, $1,558 PTA, $4.25M cume
5. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $1.7M, $625 PTA, $42.28M cume
6. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.11M, $798 PTA, $54.7M cume
7. Knowing (Summit) – $1.95M, $667 PTA, $63.28M cume
8. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $1.92M, $880 PTA, $1.92M cume
9. Adventureland (Miramax) – $1.1M, $586 PTA, $9.11M cume
10. Duplicity (Universal) – $750,000, $382 PTA, $34.6M cume

What do you think of all this box office madness? Did you think Hannah would break out this big, and how much do you think it will finish with this weekend? Let me know in the comments!

What’s Everyone Else Predicting? Box Office Analysts Unite!

April 10, 2009

It’s high time that someone took the initiative and united all the different box office analysts out there! So many great sites are dedicated to studying the trends of the film industry, and I thought it might be nice to put together a chart of all our various box office predictions each week and see how we compare to one another. I’ve placed some links at the top of the chart, so you can read everyone else’s weekend forecasts. What do you think of this idea?

Box Office Analyst Predictions
Film
Title
The Box
Office Junkie
Box Office
Magazine
The-
Numbers
Box Office
Prophets
Box Office
Guru
Slash
Film
Fast And Furious $30.0 M $31.0 $29.5 $27.5 $32.0 $30.0
Hannah Montana The Movie $27.0 M $29.0 $25.0 $22.0 $26.0 $24.6
Monsters Vs. Aliens $20.0 M $21.0 $18.0 $19.6 $21.0 $21.0
Observe And Report $18.0 M $16.0 $15.0 $18.0 $14.0 $19.5
Dragonball: Evolution $11.0 M $7.5 $6.0 $5.0 $8.0 $10.7
I Love You, Man $5.0 M $5.6 $4.4 $4.9
The Haunting In Connecticut $4.8 M $5.3 $4.6 $5.1
Knowing $4.7 M $5.8 $4.7 $4.8
Adventureland $3.5 M $3.9 $2.9 $3.4
Duplicity $2.3 M $2.4 $2.4
Sunshine Cleaning $1.9 M $2.3
Race To Witch Mountain $1.6 M

Weekend Preview: Hannah Montana And Seth Rogen Will Try To Topple Fast And Furious Over The Easter Frame

April 10, 2009

Every once in a while, you’ll see a weekend frame that has two debuting films for which it would be absolutely awesome if you could switch their casts. The last time I remember feeling that way was on October 24-26, 2008, when Saw V and High School Musical 3 both premiered, and this weekend I feel the same way, as Disney’s Miley Cyrus vehicle Hannah Montana The Movie and Seth Rogen’s Observe And Report hit theaters. Those two films will take on reigning champion Fast And Furious in the battle for the Easter crown, and I don’t mean the religious kind. Dragonball: Evolution is also debuting, but it’s not looking like it will make much of an impact.

You may have read a certain devilish post by my unfortunately misguided colleague, Reed, about the inevitable apocalypse that will accompany the debut of Disney’s Hannah Montana The Movie. Well, I’m a bit more optimistic about the situation, so allow me to stick up for the tween sensation. I’ve never picked on Disney and their veritable pantheon of singing/dancing/acting stars like Zac Efron, Selena Gomez, or Miley Cyrus. Considering the sexed-up alternatives (Justin Timberlake, Christina Aguilera, Britney Spears, etc), I’d rather see my little sisters fawn over the clean-cut kids in High School Musical or Hannah Montana any day of the week. Furthermore, I really do think that Disney finds the best of the best when it comes to talent. Say what you will about the company, but they’ve got a pretty great track record when it comes to finding the most talented children (Justin Timberlake, Christina Aguilera, Britney Spears, etc), and despite her occasionally grating public persona, Miley Cyrus is a great entertainer that audiences clearly connect with. She seems to me like a perfectly normal 16 year-old, and I don’t think she’s done anything that any other girl her age hasn’t. Plus, she gets major respect points from me for actually singing live!

Okay, now that I’m done defending Miley Cyrus, let’s focus on her equally (more?) famous alter ego, Hannah Montana, and her chances at the box office this weekend. The Disney Channel has never had a show as successful as Hannah Montana, which has become an industry in its own right. Dolls, video games, soundtracks, concerts, 3-D concert movies- it all just keeps making money! Last year, Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best Of Both Worlds Concert Tour opened to $31 million dollars, but that was with $15 tickets, the 3-D gimmick, and the idea that the film would only be running for one week. Hannah Montana The Movie will be lucky to achieve that high of a number, but it should still find a solid debut. In 2003, Disney’s Hilary Duff vehicle, The Lizzie McGuire Movie earned $17 million in its opening weekend, but Hannah Montana is way bigger than Lizzie McGuire ever was. Marketing has been strong, excitement is high among the core fanbase, and reviews are fine, though I can’t think of a more review-proof film than this one. Rolling into 3,111 theaters, parents will be happen to take their daughters to a film that is guaranteed to be sweet and non-controversial. Give it $28 million over the weekend.

On the completely opposite end of the spectrum is Warner Brothers’ Observe And Report, which looks essentially like an edgy, crude, funny version of Paul Blart: Mall Cop. Starring Seth Rogen as a police officer who takes his mall security very seriously, the film also features the wonderful comedienne Anna Faris. Critics are split on the film, which is currently sitting with a 59% rating at RT. Some are praising Observe And Report for its ballsy approach to comedy, while others disapprove of its blatant meanness and lack of a moral. Historically, audiences prefer conventional humor, and this shounds to me like a film that’s tough to love. Still, Rogen has considerable drawing power (I attribute the underwhelming $31 million finish of Zack And Miri Make A Porno mostly to the title of the film), and other male-oriented comedies like Role Models, Pineapple Express, and I Love You, Man have been successful lately. Debuting in 2,727 theaters, Observe And Report might apprehend about $18 million this weekend.

The final new film debuting this weekend is Fox’s Dragonball: Evolution, which actually seemed like a good idea two years ago. I’ve never seen a film lose steam quite the way that Dragonball has, and excitement over its production has steadily decreased in the past year. Based on the popular TV show, which was in turn based on the popular manga series, Evolution tells the story of a group of powerful individuals all vying to control the Universe by possessing mystical objects called “dragonballs.” Sound silly? That’s because it is. While the TV show definitely created a built-in audience for this flick, bad reviews and general disinterest are going to keep this from becoming a fanboy favorite. The lowish 2,181 theater count doesn’t reveal that Fox has a hue amount of cofidence in Dragonball: Evolution, and I think Goku and the gang should probably come in with about $11 million this weekend.

Fast And Furious should race to the top spot (I made a palindrome!) again this weekend. After its record-breaking $70.9 million debut, it has decelerated pretty quickly throughout the week, and a drop of about 60% seems in order for the actionfest. But at this point, it’s all gravy for the studio, and Paul Walker and Vin Diesel have to be thanking their agents for convincing them to come back to the franchise. Give the Universal effort $30 million, with Hannah Montana hot on its heels. Meanwhile, Monsters Vs. Aliens should benefit from the family friendly nature of Easter weekend, and see a drop of about 35-40%, which would give it $20 million over three days and $138 million overall. It should be a great weekend at the box office! Here are my full predictions:

Predicted Top 12 For April 10-12, 2009
1. Fast And Furious – $30 million
2. Hannah Montana The Movie – $27 million
3. Monsters Vs. Aliens – $20 million
4. Observe And Report – $18 million
5. Dragonball: Evolution – $11 million
6. I Love You, Man – $5 million
7. The Haunting In Connecticut – $4.8 million
8. Knowing – $4.7 million
9. Adventureland – $3.5 million
10. Duplicity – $2.3 million
11. Sunshine Cleaning – $1.8 million
12. Race To Witch Mountain – $1.6 million

Am I totally off base or right on the money with my predictions? And am I crazy for defending Hannah Montana? Let me hear your thoughts and predictions in the comments!