Archive for the ‘December 25-27’ Category

Friday Estimates: Sherlock And Avatar Both Earn $24 Million On Christmas Day! Who’s Gonna Win?

December 26, 2009

What a weekend this is shaping up to be! I did not expect Sherlock Holmes to garner these sorts of huge numbers, but the Guy Ritchie reboot has found a major audience on Christmas Day.  The detective/action hero movie found a massive $24 $25 million on Friday, but will it be able to hold off Avatar, which earned the same amount, over the rest of the weekend?  I don’t think so…

It’s a bit hard to say how movies will do over the rest of the weekend because there hasn’t been a Christmas Day on a Friday in about twenty years. On top of that, the trend of going to the movies on Christmas is relatively recent- it wasn’t always a huge day at the box office! Now, it’s one of the biggest of the year! That being said, speculating about the box office is what I do best, so here’s my take on the weekend:

Avatar has already been out for a week, so the die-hard fans have had their chance to see it. On top of that, the word-of-mouth is amazing.  (Even my grandparents were talking about it yesterday!) Therefore, it should see a more typical Saturday box office increase than Sherlock Holmes will. If Avatar see’s a 2.9 weekend multiplier (reduced because of the Christmas Day bump), it will earn a fantastic $70 million this weekend. Sherlock Holmes can probably manage a 2.6 multiplier, which would give the flick a pretty great $64 million start.

That movie about chipmunks (I won’t mention its name) managed to steal $12 million worth of tickets from the American public, which, let’s be honest, is a travesty. After grossing $27 million on Wednesday and Thursday, a weekend of $37 million is probably in order. That makes me very sad, especially because it knocked The Princess And The Frog‘s box office down to just $2 million on Friday. Disney isn’t happy, I’m sure.

But the movies weren’t totally dominated by young people this weekend! Adult fare did pretty well too! It’s Complicated earned $7.5 million on Friday, and the Meryl Streep and Alec Baldwin rom-com could see $22 million over the weekend. That’s certainly better than Did You Hear About The Morgans? did last weekend. Up In The Air, riding high on awards buzz, grossed $4 million in its first Friday in wide release. A $12 million weekend should result. Nine failed to really break out on Friday, grossing just $2.2 million. Perhaps it was the mixed reviews that did Nine in, or maybe it was the fact that the advertisements failed to explain what this movie was about. Either way, a $6 million weekend isn’t anything to sing about. Check out the full Friday box office chart below, and for more box office updates, follow me on Twitter!

Early Friday Estimates for December 25, 2009
1. Sherlock Holmes – $24 million
2. Avatar – $24 million
3. Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakuel – $12 million
4. It’s Complicated – $7.5 million
5. Up In The Air – $4 million
6. The Blind Side – $4 million
7. Nine – $2.2 million
8. The Princess And The Frog – $2 million
9. Did You Hear About The Morgans – $1.6 million
10. Invictus – $1.3 million