Archive for the ‘Box Office’ Category

Weekend Fix: Shutter Island Shuts Downs The Competition Easily!

February 21, 2010
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Friday Estimates: Shutter Island Takes Off With $14.1 Million Friday; Everything Else Plummets!

February 20, 2010

Early Friday Estimates are starting to come in, and a few things are abundantly clear (box office figures are after the jump):

1. Shutter Island is off to a good start.  After months of negative buzz, massive delays, release date changes, and general confusion, Shutter Island actually landed on its feet! The Martin Scorsese/Leonardo DiCaprio collaboration earned a robust $14.1 million on Friday, and it could find $36-39 million over the weekend frame.

2. Valentine’s Day is really not all that impressive once Valentine’s Day has passed.  The romantic comedy, which has more stars than a heart-shaped box has chocolates, fell 61% from last Friday to $5.7 million.  A $16-18 million weekend should result.

3. Percy Jackson & The Olympians didn’t hold as well as it needed to in order to ensure a sequel.  The children’s fantasy fell 58% from last Friday to $4 million.  It recover a bit over the rest of the weekend, though, and find $16.5 million overall.

4. Everyone that really wanted to see The Wolfman did so last weekend.  The horror remake dropped an alarming 69% to $2.9 million, and after a solid debut last frame, it will have trouble reaching just $10 million this weekend.  Not good when you take into account the fact that Universal dropped $150 million to make this!

Except for last week’s openers, which are in complete free-fall, the box office performed pretty much as expected, though drops across the board were larger than expected.  Perhaps box office analysts underestimated just how much moviegoing increased over the President’s Day frame, and the inflated grosses of last weekend created unnaturally large decreases this time around.  Perhaps last week’s openers just had audiences that were very excited to rush out and see the films.  Who knows?  Either way, with drops so large, any semblance of “depth” is quickly disappearing from the box office, which is not a good thing for 2010.  Check out the full chart below.

Friday Estimates For February 18, 2010
1. Shutter Island – $14.1 million
2. Valentine’s Day – $5.7 million
3. Percy Jackson & The Olympians – $4 million
4. Avatar – $3.9 million
5. The Wolfman – $2.9 million
6. Dear John – $2.3 million
7. Tooth Fairy – $1.1 million
8. Crazy Heart – $765,000
9. From Paris With Love – $720,000
10. Edge Of Darkness – $615,000

Catching Up On The Box Office… Valentine’s Day Was Huge, But Will Percy Jackson Be Huger?

February 18, 2010

Hey, folks!  It’s been a while since I’ve written anything on here (almost a week!), but I promise I have a good excuse!  I spent all weekend way down in Birmingham, Alabama at the Beaux Arts Krewe Ball, and let me tell you, it was the most lavish, over-the-top, ridiculously awesome event I’ve ever been to!  I got to witness the spectacle of a debutante ball, barrel roll in the back seat of WWII fighter airplanes, and eat dinner at swanky restaurants all weekend.  It was truly amazing, and I would go again in a second.  Anyway, the weekend left me playing catch up for a while with my life, but I figured it was about time that I got back to doing what I do best- analyzing the box office!  I wasn’t able to follow the weekend step by step, but wow, it was an exciting one!  Valentine’s Day, Percy Jackson And The Olympians, and The Wolfman all exceeded my expectations, and, as some of you mentioned in the comments, I’m excited that 2010 finally started to pull its own weight, adding some much-needed depth to the box office.  (You all know me so well!)  Thus, because it is Box Office Analysis Thursday, keep reading for my late-but-hopefully-still-entertaining take on what went down over this extended President’s Day weekend at the box office:

Valentine’s Day – $63.1 million – $17,227 PTA

The star-cluttered, heavily-marketed, obviously-titled feature performed spectacularly over the weekend, grossing a tremendous $63.1 million over the four day period, shattering all records on the way to becoming the highest-grossing President’s Day weekend of all time.  Valentine’s Day, with its title alone, established itself as the obvious choice this weekend with moviegoers, and the onslaught of stars in the picture only made the film even more consumable.  In a short-attention-span world, Valentine’s Day‘s incredible box office results show that American audiences appreciate being given a clear choice on a certain weekend.
Where It Goes From Here: Considering that this will be sitting at $70 million by tonight, $100 million is a foregone conclusion, though I’d bet that the fangirl effect + the holiday effect + the 4-day weekend effect will make this a frontloaded film.  By the end of this weekend, I’d guess that Valentine’s Day will sit with a gross of about $95 million, and by the end of it’s run, I think it might find about $135 million. Not bad for a movie that cost $52 million to make!  Plus, down the road, it will dominate the home market.

Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief – $38.7 million – $11,520 PTA

Fox reported a $95 million budget for this potential franchise-launcher, and you know what?  I think they might actually be pretty pleased with this result.  Percy Jackson follows The Golden Compass ($70 million), The Spiderwick Chronicles ($71 million), and Eragon ($75 million) as children’s fantasy franchises based on books that studios hoped could reach to Harry Potter levels, though they each failed at the box office.  This time around, despite the poor advertising, Percy Jackson, which mixes growing up in New York City with Greek mythology, broke out, finding a very solid $38.7 million over four days. 
Where It Goes From Here: Even if you hadn’t heard of the Percy Jackson series, take my word for it: kids love these books, and Fox would be foolish not to continue with this franchise.  It earned good enough reviews to not leave a bad taste in peoples’ mouths, and with some refinement that often arrives in the second film in a franchise, this could be a very successful series of movies.  Because of their family appeal, these kinds of kid’s adventure movies often have very strong legs, and if Percy Jackson performs as expected, it could be looking at a nice $130 million gross(right in line with Valentine’s Day).  With strong international grosses and home market returns, Fox could end up being pretty pleased with this performance.  If they can keep the budget down for the sequel, make a better movie, and advertise more effectively, this could be a lucrative franchise in the void left by Harry Potter.

The Wolfman – $35.6 million – $11,035 PTA

I’ll admit it, I was pretty off in my prediction for The Wolfman.  I assumed that werewolf movies had a limited fanbase of super-fanboys, but we do live in a Twilight and True Blood world, and perhaps the massive bump in vampire appeal has increased werewolves’ popularity as well.  The Wolfman howled up a wild $35.6 million over the 4-day weekend, which would seem a whole lot better if Universal hadn’t spent a ridiculous $150 million producing it.  Seriously, where did all that money go?! Certainly not into the lighting.  Still, a $35 million debut is nothing to look down upon.
Where It Goes From Here: I’d expect this to be pretty frontloaded.  Most sci-fi/fantasy movies are.  The Underworld movies usually managed just above a 2.0 multiplier, and applying that to The Wolfman would give the picture about $75 million overall.  Learn to control your budgets, Universal!

Weekend Fix: Dear John Takes Down Avatar! The Fangirls Strike Again!

February 7, 2010

Friday Estimates: Dear John Goes To Battle And Comes Out On Top!

February 6, 2010

Remember how I mentioned in yesterday’s video that I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Dear John managed to win the weekend?  Well, after a fantastic Friday, it looks like the romantic drama is going to! Dear John earned a tremendous $13.8 million yesterday, and where it heads from here is an interesting question.  I’m guessing Channing Tatum has a substantial number of teen fangirls, who rushed out on Friday to see this film, so it will be fairly frontloaded.  That being said, Dear John should hold better than most every other movie on Super Bowl Sunday.  All told, an awesome $31 million weekend is in store for Dear JohnAvatar came in second with $6.2 million, and while the sci-fi epic will finally give up the top spot, it will still only fall about 25% from last weekend to $23 million, lifting its total to $629 million.  From Paris With Love couldn’t even live up to lowered expectations, and the John Travolta shoot-em-up only grossed $3 million on Friday.  This should lead to a weak $8 million weekend, only slightly more than what Edge Of Darkness will earn in its second weekend.  Otherwise, there’s not too much to report, as things are performing pretty much as expected.  Crazy Heart broke into the Top 10 with $1.1 million on Friday, and the Oscar-nominated release might see a $3.3 million weekend.  Check below for full Friday box office estimates:

Friday Estimates For February 5, 2010
1. Dear John – $13.8 million
2. Avatar – $6.2 million
3. From Paris With Love – $3 million
4. Edge Of Darkness – $2.3 million
5. When In Rome – $2 million
6. Tooth Fairy – $1.7 million
7. The Book Of Eli – $1.5 million
8. Crazy Heart – $1.1 million
9. Legion – $1.1 million
10. Sherlock Holmes – $785,000

I’m Still Going After The Internship…

February 5, 2010
 

Hey everyone, this is just a quick update! So I know that it’s Thursday, and I usually do a box office analysis article, but things have been very hectic this week. Between scrambling to get a passport, participating in my fraternity’s rush process, getting my tux dry cleaned for a debutante ball next weekend, trying to finish my schoolwork, and putting the finishing touches on my Entertainment Weekly application, I just needed a day to get really things done. I’m sure you all understand, because you all are the best readers in the world. Anyway, if you know anyone up at EW, be sure to put in a good word for me! And don’t worry, the blog is still on normal operating schedule for the weekend. I’ve already shot the predictions video!

Weekend Fix: For A 7th Weekend, Avatar Tops Box Office; Outgrosses Edge Of Darkness And When In Rome COMBINED!

January 31, 2010

Another week, another victory for Avatar… As expected, Avatar easily dominated the competition, grossing a record-breaking $30 million in its seventh weekend!  If you had combined the opening numbers of Edge Of Darkness and When In Rome, they still couldn’t have taken down James Cameron’s sci-fi blockbuster.  The alien film now sits just $6 million shy of Titanic‘s record as the highest grossing film in the US of all time.  Overall, it was a fairly lackluster frame at the box office, despite the fact that drops were pretty small across the board (with the notable exception of Legion).  The Top 12 films were up 4% over the same weekend last year, but when you look at all films tracking, results were actually down 4%.  Tooth Fairy held very well, dropping a scant 29% to $10 million.  That would be much better news if the film had had a solid debut.  Unfortunately, it didn’t.  If 2010 hopes to build on 2009’s success, it will need to produce some legitimate hits pretty darn quick, because the December team of Avatar, Sherlock Holmes, Alvin, It’s Complicated, The Blind Side, and Up In The Air, can’t half of the revenue at the box office forever!  To see my thoughts on the weekend, watch the video above (posts in the afternoon).  Then check below for the full box office chart.

Top 12 Box Office Hits For January 22-24, 2010
Rank Movie Studio Theaters Weekend Gross
Chg AVG. Total
1
Avatar Fox 3074 $30,000,000 -14% $9,759 $594,472,387
2
Edge Of Darkness Warner Bros 3066 $17,120,000 New $5,584 $17,120,000
3
When In Rome Disney 2456 $12,065,000 New $4,912 $12,065,000
4
Tooth Fairy Fox 3345 $10,000,000 -29% $2,990 $26,106,278
5
The Book Of Eli Warner Bros 3075 $8,770,000 -44% $2,852 $74,373,000
6
Legion Sony 2476 $6,800,000 -61% $2,746 $28,646,000
7
The Lovely Bones Paramount 2638 $4,735,000 -44% $1,795 $38,014,000
8
Sherlock Holmes Warner Bros 2250 $4,510,000 -32% $2,004 $197,596,000
9
Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel Fox 2526 $4,000,000 -38% $1,584 $209,297,861
10
It’s Complicated Universal 2096 $3,720,400 -36% $1,775 $104,027,220
11
The Blind Side Warner Bros 1751 $3,020,000 -28% $1,725 $237,913,000
12
Up In The Air Paramount 1430 $2,700,000 -31% $1,888 $73,173,000
All Numbers Provided By Exhibitor Relations Co.

Hell Hath No Fury Like A Father Scorned; Revenge At The Box Office

January 28, 2010

Alright guys, I’ve already talked a good bit about Edge Of Darkness this week, but I’m going to do it a little bit more.  Since the popular box office game of the week (wouldn’t it be awesome if we actually had one of those?!) has been to see what can take Avatar out of the #1 spot, and since Edge Of Darkness has the best shot of doing so, and since it is Box Office Analysis Thursday, I thought we could take a quick look at three similar movies at the box office and perhaps make an early prediction for Edge Of Darkness.  Take a look inside for this box office quickie:

Taken (2009)

This revenge thriller followed Liam Neeson on a vengeful quest to rescue his kidnapped daughter.  It opened on the same weekend last year that Edge Of Darkness is opening on this year, though it had to compete with The Super Bowl, which hurt its Sunday grosses.  Still, people enjoyed Neeson’s determined drive to take down the evil society that had kidnapped his baby girl, and Taken opened to a solid $24.7 million before grossing $145 million overall.

Man On Fire (2004)
Denzel Washington played Dakota Fanning’s bodyguard in a dangerous Mexico City.  Despite his desire not to get attached, Washington grows to care deeply about the young girl.  When she’s kidnapped, he goes on a rampage, stopping at nothing to get her back, even if it’s at a major cost to himself.  The gritty revenge thriller was a mid level hit, grossing $22.7 million on opening weekend and $77.9 million total.

Payback (1999)

Mel Gibson starred in this thriller back in 1999, and I can’t get over the poster’s uncanny resemblance to the ads for Edge Of Darkness!  In Payback, Gibson played an oily guy who was betrayed by his friend and shot by his own wife.  Remarkably, he recovers and quickly decides to seek revenge on his former loved ones.  The thriller opened to $21.2 million and earned $81.5 million overall.

Edge Of Darkness (2010)

Based on the predictions above, I think we’re going to be looking at yet another debut in the $20 millions.  Mel Gibson may have a tarnished image, but he’s still a star, and he looks like a perfect fit for this angry role.  This mini-genre of individual men seeking revenge has proved to be pretty consistent, and with a good advertising campaign, I think Edge Of Darkness might be looking at a $26 million opening weekend and a $95 million gross.

Weekend Fix: Avatar Wins For A Sixth Weekend, Doubling Legion’s Surprise #2 Debut

January 24, 2010

Friday Estimates: Avatar Holds Remarkably Well; Legion Stands Out And Tooth Fairy Disappoints

January 23, 2010

Early Friday Estimates are starting to come in, and while there is some box office news that is completely expected (Avatar dropping just 12% to $9.1 million and easily topping the chart), other news is quite surprising: Namely, that Legion came in a strong 2nd place on Friday, with a gross of $6.8 million, easily outgrossing Tooth Fairy, which entered the box office in fourth place with an opening day gross of $3.8 million.  From here, Legion should be fairly frontloaded, since it appeals to a fanboy audience, and it might see a final weekend gross of $16 million.  Tooth Fairy, on the other hand, should hold up throughout the weekend, since it appeals to families, and it might gross $13 million.  Further down on the chart, the weekend’s other newcomer, Extraordinary Measures, was DOA, earning a paltry $2.1 million on its first day, which should lead to a sad $6.5 million weekend.  Obviously, Avatar will top the chart (for a sixth week!) with a figure of about $35 million, while last week’s big opener, The Book Of Eli, will earn an additional $18 million.  Keep reading on for a full list of early Friday Estimates:

Friday Estimates for January 22, 2010
1. Avatar – $9.1 million
2. Legion – $6.8 million
3. The Book Of Eli – $5 million
4. Tooth Fairy – $3.8 million
5. The Lovely Bones – $2.8 million
6. Extraordinary Measures – $2.1 million
7. Sherlock Holmes – $1.9 million
8. It’s Complicated – $1.7 million
9. Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel – $1.4 million
10. The Blind Side – $1.2 million