Archive for the ‘Box Office Prediction’ Category

Weekend Preview: Moviegoers Will Get Lost On Shutter Island

February 19, 2010

TBOJ is back in full force today, and it should stay that way for a while!  The video may be late, but I’m all done playing catch up.  This week, we only have one new film coming out, and that’s the highly anticipated Martin Scorsese picture Shutter Island, which should nab the top spot at the box office pretty easily.  To see my prediction for Shutter Island, as well as the rest of the Top 5, check out the video above.  Then, click below to see my full box office predictions for this weekend!

Box Office Predictions for February 19-21, 2010
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 Shutter Island 2,991 $31 million
2 Valentine’s Day 3,665 $24 million
3 Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief 3,396 $20 million
4 Avatar 2,581 $18 million
5 The Wolfman 3,223 $15 million
6 Dear John 3,062 $8 million
7 Tooth Fairy 2,523 $4.4 million
8 Crazy Heart 1,089 $4.3 million
9 From Paris With Love 2,311 $3.8 million
10 Edge Of Darkness 2,118 $3.3 million

Advertisements

Catching Up On The Box Office… Valentine’s Day Was Huge, But Will Percy Jackson Be Huger?

February 18, 2010

Hey, folks!  It’s been a while since I’ve written anything on here (almost a week!), but I promise I have a good excuse!  I spent all weekend way down in Birmingham, Alabama at the Beaux Arts Krewe Ball, and let me tell you, it was the most lavish, over-the-top, ridiculously awesome event I’ve ever been to!  I got to witness the spectacle of a debutante ball, barrel roll in the back seat of WWII fighter airplanes, and eat dinner at swanky restaurants all weekend.  It was truly amazing, and I would go again in a second.  Anyway, the weekend left me playing catch up for a while with my life, but I figured it was about time that I got back to doing what I do best- analyzing the box office!  I wasn’t able to follow the weekend step by step, but wow, it was an exciting one!  Valentine’s Day, Percy Jackson And The Olympians, and The Wolfman all exceeded my expectations, and, as some of you mentioned in the comments, I’m excited that 2010 finally started to pull its own weight, adding some much-needed depth to the box office.  (You all know me so well!)  Thus, because it is Box Office Analysis Thursday, keep reading for my late-but-hopefully-still-entertaining take on what went down over this extended President’s Day weekend at the box office:

Valentine’s Day – $63.1 million – $17,227 PTA

The star-cluttered, heavily-marketed, obviously-titled feature performed spectacularly over the weekend, grossing a tremendous $63.1 million over the four day period, shattering all records on the way to becoming the highest-grossing President’s Day weekend of all time.  Valentine’s Day, with its title alone, established itself as the obvious choice this weekend with moviegoers, and the onslaught of stars in the picture only made the film even more consumable.  In a short-attention-span world, Valentine’s Day‘s incredible box office results show that American audiences appreciate being given a clear choice on a certain weekend.
Where It Goes From Here: Considering that this will be sitting at $70 million by tonight, $100 million is a foregone conclusion, though I’d bet that the fangirl effect + the holiday effect + the 4-day weekend effect will make this a frontloaded film.  By the end of this weekend, I’d guess that Valentine’s Day will sit with a gross of about $95 million, and by the end of it’s run, I think it might find about $135 million. Not bad for a movie that cost $52 million to make!  Plus, down the road, it will dominate the home market.

Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief – $38.7 million – $11,520 PTA

Fox reported a $95 million budget for this potential franchise-launcher, and you know what?  I think they might actually be pretty pleased with this result.  Percy Jackson follows The Golden Compass ($70 million), The Spiderwick Chronicles ($71 million), and Eragon ($75 million) as children’s fantasy franchises based on books that studios hoped could reach to Harry Potter levels, though they each failed at the box office.  This time around, despite the poor advertising, Percy Jackson, which mixes growing up in New York City with Greek mythology, broke out, finding a very solid $38.7 million over four days. 
Where It Goes From Here: Even if you hadn’t heard of the Percy Jackson series, take my word for it: kids love these books, and Fox would be foolish not to continue with this franchise.  It earned good enough reviews to not leave a bad taste in peoples’ mouths, and with some refinement that often arrives in the second film in a franchise, this could be a very successful series of movies.  Because of their family appeal, these kinds of kid’s adventure movies often have very strong legs, and if Percy Jackson performs as expected, it could be looking at a nice $130 million gross(right in line with Valentine’s Day).  With strong international grosses and home market returns, Fox could end up being pretty pleased with this performance.  If they can keep the budget down for the sequel, make a better movie, and advertise more effectively, this could be a lucrative franchise in the void left by Harry Potter.

The Wolfman – $35.6 million – $11,035 PTA

I’ll admit it, I was pretty off in my prediction for The Wolfman.  I assumed that werewolf movies had a limited fanbase of super-fanboys, but we do live in a Twilight and True Blood world, and perhaps the massive bump in vampire appeal has increased werewolves’ popularity as well.  The Wolfman howled up a wild $35.6 million over the 4-day weekend, which would seem a whole lot better if Universal hadn’t spent a ridiculous $150 million producing it.  Seriously, where did all that money go?! Certainly not into the lighting.  Still, a $35 million debut is nothing to look down upon.
Where It Goes From Here: I’d expect this to be pretty frontloaded.  Most sci-fi/fantasy movies are.  The Underworld movies usually managed just above a 2.0 multiplier, and applying that to The Wolfman would give the picture about $75 million overall.  Learn to control your budgets, Universal!

Weekend Preview: Valentine’s Day Will Fight Off Greek Gods And Werewolves To Win The Weekend

February 12, 2010

Guys, I’m so sorry that I haven’t been on the ball with posting this week.  Things have been hectic.  I’m trying.  My Tuesday post didn’t exist, and Thursday’s was just a picture.  I’m sort of disappointed in myself, but I’m doing my best, and that’s all I can really do.  The blog won’t be updated this weekend, and the video (which is very short) explains all that.  Plus, you can check out my box office predictions for Valentine’s Day, Percy Jackson And The Olympians: The Lightning Thief, and The Wolfman by watching!  Have a great weekend everyone!

Why Valentine’s Day Will Do Very Well This Weekend…

February 11, 2010

And that is my honest opinion.
The title and genre will earn a few million.
The ginormous cast will make a few million more.
The actual day of Valentine’s Day will contribute substantially.
But Taylor and Taylor will draw the masses.

New And News: Percy Jackson Arrives In Time For The Olympics; Valentines Day for Valentine’s Day; Wolfman For… A New Moon?

February 8, 2010

After weeks of sub-par offerings at the box office, it looks like 2010 is finally getting its act together.  Three high-profile releases are entering theaters this Friday, and they should each find varying degrees of success.  Valentine’s Day will be huge.  Percy Jackson And The Olympians: The Lightning Thief will probably perform solidly.  The Wolfman might not do so well.  All told, the new movies should inject some much needed life into the film industry, which has been living off of 2009’s leftovers for the last few weeks.  Click on inside for a quick preview of those films, as well as a whole lot of news about potential sequels for Fast And Furious, Kill Bill, and Enchanted, a Daredevil reboot, and a great documentary about The Princess And The Frog. This is Monday, and this is New And News.

New:

Percy Jackson And The Olympians: The Lightning Thief (Fox) – 3,300 theaters – Reviews

I had never heard of the Percy Jackson novels until my most recent summer as a camp counselor.  A few of my campers were reading the final installment (which had just hit shelves) in the apparently super-popular series, and they were enthralled.  They told me all about the young Percy Jackson, and his adventures with the mythic Greek gods of Mount Olympus in the middle of New York City.  They told me how he discovers his status as a demi-god and finds himself in the center of a battle between the gods.  They told me they loved the books and couldn’t wait for the movies.  Fox is hoping to capture some of that magic in The Lightning Thief, which could launch a major franchise if it succeeds.  Unfortunately, I don’t know that it will be able to do so.  To me, Percy Jackson falls into the same category as movies like Eragon and The Spiderwick Chronicles: potential fantasy franchises that rely too much upon a built-in audience of readers to support the film.  Advertising hasn’t been especially strong, and though early reviews are positive, Fox hasn’t showcased this film as an event enough.  Personally, I’d love to see this inventive story succeed, because, believe it or not, we’re just one year away from living in a post-Potter world.

Valentine’s Day (Warner Bros) – 3,600 theaters – Reviews

Last year, He’s Just Not That Into You earned $94 million after a February release.  The romantic comedy featured about half of Hollywood’s A-list in a dozen miniature story lines about falling in love.  It was a strategy popularized by sleeper-hit-turned-into-everyone’s-favorite-holiday-movie Love, Actually, and Valentine’s Day has made its resemblance to that movie very clear.  With a star studded cast featuring Jennifer Garner, Jamie Foxx, Julia Roberts, Ashton Kutcher, Queen Latifah, and Jessica Alba (and that’s seriously only naming a few), you can expect this to be the number one choice this Valentine’s Day weekend.  I think this is going to be huge- I’ve honestly heard just as many guys talking about this as girls, and the widely appealing premise will lead to major success.  Plus, Taylor Lautner will draw in the legion of Twi-hards and Taylor Swift will pull in everyone else.

The Wolfman (Universal) – 3,100 theaters – Reviews

A remake of the classic 1941 film that launched the werewolf genre in the film industry, 2010’s The Wolfman looks like a dark take on the shape shifting story, and it features a rockin’ cast with Benicio Del Toro, Anthony Hopkins, Hugo Weaving, and Emily Blunt.  With a hefty $85 million price tag, The Wolfman will have to work very hard to earn back its negative cost, and Universal’s advertising hasn’t done much to draw in the casual moviegoer.  With dark (literally, not in tone), confusing commercials, and no real box office draws,  I don’t see many people choosing The Wolfman over the breezier offerings this weekend.  Maybe it should have waited until a full moon to debut- Valentine’s Day is a New Moon!

News:

Sequels, Sequels, And More Sequels…

Looks like we’re getting a Fast And Furious sequel called Fast Five, another installment of Disney’s Enchanted franchise, and possibly a final Kill Bill film.  You know what?  I honestly wouldn’t mind any of those!

Daredevil Is Getting Rebooted

ow can you tell that studio’s are scared to risk too much money during the recession? They’re determined to produce sequels and reboots of existing franchises before investing a penny in any new idea.  In step with the current trend of rebooting unsuccessful superhero movies (see Hulk, Spider-Man, Batman), Fox is looking to bring Daredevil back to the silver screen after the critically and financially disappointing 2003 treatment.

The Return Of Disney’s 2D Animation Department

/Film is doing an absolutely fantastic series about the revival of Disney’s classic 2D animation.  The video series chronicles the elaborate process of creating The Princess And The Frog, as well as the larger scope of animation at the Walt Disney Company.  The series is absolutely fascinating and chalk full of insightful interviews with passionate animators.  Part one is right here, but be sure to check out the rest of the Frogumentary on /Film.

Weekend Preview: Dear John May Tackle Avatar Out Of The Top Spot During The Super Bowl

February 5, 2010

Could this finally be the week that Avatar rescinds the top spot on the chart?  I know I’ve asked that for the last few weeks, but the planets (Pandorum excluded) may be aligned in just the right way to push Avatar down to second place this frame.  The Super Bowl will draw males away from the theaters, and it may leave the romantic, female-targeting Dear John to take the box office by storm.  Still, Avatar hasn’t gone down yet, and there’s a good chance it will win the weekend again, so it’s going to be a fun, close one to watch!  The other newcomer, From Paris With Love, probably won’t have as much success, and the John Travolta action film will have a mid-level debut.  To hear my predictions of those new films, watch the video above.  As far as the holdovers go, drops are usually pretty small at this time of the year, though the Super Bowl will subtract a huge portion of audiences on Sunday.  It is also important to note that a massive snowstorm is expected on the East Coast this weekend (an estimated 28″ where I am!), which may also dampen grosses substantially.  Despite those forces working against the box office, though, the Oscar nominations and consequent expansions of many well-reviewed films should lead to some sturdy grosses in the lower rungs of the chart, especially from the Jeff Bridges showcase, Crazy Heart.  After you’ve watched the video above, check below for my full weekend prediction chart!

Box Office Predictions for February 5-7, 2010
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 Avatar 3,000 $25 million
2 Dear John 3,066 $22.5 million
3 From Paris With Love 2,722 $15 million
4 Edge Of Darkness 3,066 $10 million
5 When In Rome 2,456 $7.5 million
6 Tooth Fairy 3,218 $7.2 million
7 The Book Of Eli 2,820 $4.6 million
8 Crazy Heart 819 $4 million
9 Legion 2,339 $3.4 million
10 Sherlock Holmes 1,805 $2.8 million

Weekend Preview: Edge Of Darkness Aims To Shoot Down Avatar; When In Rome Just Hopes That Somebody Will Love It

January 29, 2010

Fellow box office junkies, this could be it.  The time may have come.  We may actually have a movie that can take the #1 spot from Avatar.  Will it happen?  Probably not, but we can dream, right? This week, two new films are entering theaters, and they couldn’t be more different.  On the one hand, we’ve got the relatively well reviewed, R-rated, revenge thriller Edge Of Darkness, and on the other hand, we have the critically savaged romantic comedy When In Rome.  Despite the new openers, though, the box office should once again look pretty similar to last week, since 2010 really hasn’t produced any spectacularly box office performers yet.  Avatar will probably stay on top, though last week’s #2 movie, Legion, will plummet.  Tooth Fairy and Extraordinary Measures might hold a little bit better, but overall, this isn’t going to be the most exciting weekend at the movies.  To see my predictions of the new wide releases (and hear some analysis of Christian movie To Save A Life as well), watch the video above (it’s coming), and then check below for my full box office predictions.

Box Office Predictions for January 29-31, 2010
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 Avatar 3,074 $28 million
2 Edge Of Darkness 3,066 $25 million
3 When In Rome 2,456 $9.2 million
4 Tooth Fairy 3,345 $9 million
5 The Book Of Eli 3,075 $8.8 million
6 Legion 2,476 $6.5 million
7 The Lovely Bones 2,638 $5 million
8 Sherlock Holmes 2,250 $4.4 million
9 Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 2,526 $4.1 million
10 It’s Complicated 2,096 $3.9 million

Hell Hath No Fury Like A Father Scorned; Revenge At The Box Office

January 28, 2010

Alright guys, I’ve already talked a good bit about Edge Of Darkness this week, but I’m going to do it a little bit more.  Since the popular box office game of the week (wouldn’t it be awesome if we actually had one of those?!) has been to see what can take Avatar out of the #1 spot, and since Edge Of Darkness has the best shot of doing so, and since it is Box Office Analysis Thursday, I thought we could take a quick look at three similar movies at the box office and perhaps make an early prediction for Edge Of Darkness.  Take a look inside for this box office quickie:

Taken (2009)

This revenge thriller followed Liam Neeson on a vengeful quest to rescue his kidnapped daughter.  It opened on the same weekend last year that Edge Of Darkness is opening on this year, though it had to compete with The Super Bowl, which hurt its Sunday grosses.  Still, people enjoyed Neeson’s determined drive to take down the evil society that had kidnapped his baby girl, and Taken opened to a solid $24.7 million before grossing $145 million overall.

Man On Fire (2004)
Denzel Washington played Dakota Fanning’s bodyguard in a dangerous Mexico City.  Despite his desire not to get attached, Washington grows to care deeply about the young girl.  When she’s kidnapped, he goes on a rampage, stopping at nothing to get her back, even if it’s at a major cost to himself.  The gritty revenge thriller was a mid level hit, grossing $22.7 million on opening weekend and $77.9 million total.

Payback (1999)

Mel Gibson starred in this thriller back in 1999, and I can’t get over the poster’s uncanny resemblance to the ads for Edge Of Darkness!  In Payback, Gibson played an oily guy who was betrayed by his friend and shot by his own wife.  Remarkably, he recovers and quickly decides to seek revenge on his former loved ones.  The thriller opened to $21.2 million and earned $81.5 million overall.

Edge Of Darkness (2010)

Based on the predictions above, I think we’re going to be looking at yet another debut in the $20 millions.  Mel Gibson may have a tarnished image, but he’s still a star, and he looks like a perfect fit for this angry role.  This mini-genre of individual men seeking revenge has proved to be pretty consistent, and with a good advertising campaign, I think Edge Of Darkness might be looking at a $26 million opening weekend and a $95 million gross.

Weekend Preview: Brace Yourself For Tooth Fairy, But Avatar Will Win… Again

January 22, 2010

Three very poorly-reviewed films enter theaters this week, and while each of them will find some business, none will be able to take down Avatar, which will surpass The Dark Knight this Saturday to become the most successful film of the 2000s.  Tooth Fairy should open considerably better than Legion and Extraordinary Measures, and if you’d like to see my predictions for these newcomers, watch the video above.  (Side note: my video also features one of the official screenplays of The Hurt Locker that is sent to members of the Academy!)  Amongst the holdovers, things should be rosy.  The weekend following MLK Day usually sees small drops in the 25-35% range, and that should hold true this year, as well.  Avatar, fresh off its Best Picture win at The Golden Globes, will continue its series of ridiculously small drops and easily top the box office once again.  The Book Of Eli and The Lovely Bones should hold up well, too.  Robert Downey Jr.’s Golden Globe win should keep Sherlock Holmes‘ drop low, and overall, it looks like this will be a pretty solid frame at the box office.  Check out my full predictions below:

Box Office Predictions for January 22-24, 2010
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 Avatar 3,141 $35.4 million
2 Tooth Fairy 3,344 $22 million
3 The Book Of Eli 3,111 $20 million
4 Legion 2,476 $13.5 million
5 The Lovely Bones 2,571 $11.3 million
6 Extraordinary Measures 2,549 $11 million
7 Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 2,973 $8 million
8 Sherlock Holmes 2,670 $7 million
9 The Spy Next Door 2,924 $6.3 million
10 It’s Complicated 2,294 $5.7 million

Weekend Preview: The Book Of Eli Prophesies (Guess What?) Another Winning Weekend For Avatar!

January 15, 2010

When we look at the first two weeks of 2010, we’ve seen some solid box office results, but they’ve been due primarily to the popular December releases.  This weekend, which is extended due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, it looks like 2010 might finally be starting to pull its weight.  The Book Of Eli, The Spy Next Door, and The Lovely Bones are all opening into wide releases, and each should find some alright results.  Still, none of them will be able to unseat Avatar at the top of the chart, and the sci-fi epic should see a fifth weekend of incredible revenue.  Overall, most holdovers should have very small drops this weekend, as MLK Day gives people the chance to stay out late on Sunday and hit the theaters on Monday as well.  Avatar should get very close to the $500 million mark over the four-day frame, while Sherlock Holmes and Alvin will each get closer to $200 million.  You can watch the video above for my predictions of the newcomers, and then check below for my full box office predictions for the four day weekend.

Box Office Predictions for January 15-18, 2010
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 Avatar 3,285 $43 million
2 The Book Of Eli 3,111 $28 million
3 The Spy Next Door 2,924 $16.5 million
4 The Lovely Bones 2,563 $12.7 million
5 Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 3,296 $11.2 million
6 Sherlock Holmes 3,173 $10.9 million
7 Daybreakers 2,523 $8.2 million
8 It’s Complicated 2,670 $7.5 million
9 Leap Year 2,512 $6.2 million
10 The Blind Side 2,408 $5.9 million