Archive for the ‘A Christmas Carol’ Category

Weekend Fix: Avatar Lives Up To Some Very High Expectations

December 20, 2009

Weekend Fix: Blind Side And New Moon Stay On Top; Brothers Leads A Sorry Crop Of Newcomers

December 6, 2009

Friday Estimates: Blind Side Is On Top, Brothers Opens Solidly, Everybody’s Fine Is Anything But

December 5, 2009

Early Friday estimates are in, and you know why I’m excited?  Because it snowing where I live! (Like in the picture above) You know why else I’m excited?  Because Brothers had a pretty solid debut!  Armored and Everybody’s Fine weren’t so lucky.  In the end, though, The Blind Side and New Moon are going to top the box office once again.  Read on for the Friday box office results, along with my notes and early weekend projections.

1. The Blind Side – $6.8 million
The Sandra Bullock football drama that everyone seems to love will rise to number one this weekend.  With almost $7 million on Friday, a $22 million weekend is in the cards. 

2. New Moon – $5.1 million
The emo-vampire flick saw another steep drop on Friday, but it should still find another $16 million this weekend, good for a whopping $256 million total.

3. Brothers – $3.6 million
I gotta say, I’m pretty proud of myself for predicting this one so accurately!  I knew I wasn’t the only one excited for this!  The drama could see an $11 million weekend.  If only I’d done as good of a job predicting Everybody’s Fine…

4. Armored – $2.4 million
The crime caper with surprisingly good reviews found about $2.4 million on Friday, and since this skews to a younger demographic, there should be a slight bit of frontloadedness here.  It should find $7 million over the frame.


5. Old Dogs – $2 million
6. 2012 – $2 million
7. A Christmas Carol – $1.9 million
8. Ninja Assassin – $1.6 million

9. Everybody’s Fine – $1.3 million

Alright, alright.  I’ll admit, I was off in my prediction for this family film, but oh well- it happens!  The Robert De Niro feature will earn around $4 million this weekend.

10. Planet 51 – $1 million

Weekend Fix: Waning New Moon And Robust Blind Side Crush The Newcomers Over Thankgsiving

November 29, 2009

Friday Estimates: The Blind Side And Everything Else Has A Lot To Be Thankful For This Weekend!

November 28, 2009

Thanksgiving Weekend’s Friday box office numbers are finally in, and we are seeing some major  activity at the movies.  New Moon held about as expected, but The Blind Side is blowing up, surpassing even my very high expectations! In fact, pretty much everything is doing better than expected this weekend!  There is a lot of money being made, and it makes you wish that that were the case in the rest of the economy… Anyway, let’s go over this movie by movie:

1. New Moon – $17.9 million

This is a bit below what I was predicting that this would do on Friday.  The vampire blockbuster is looking at a $48 million weekend and $238 million by the end of the frame.

2. The Blind Side – $16.2 million

Here’s the real story of the weekend.  The Blind Side is up a huge 46% from last Friday, and that’s based on strong word-of-mouth alone!   Most analysts were conservative, saying The Blind Side might earn $26-27 million this weekend.  I went way beyond that and predicted a $38 million weekend, but it’s even exceeding my predictions!  The beloved Sandra Bullock football film is giving New Moon a run for its money this weekend, but it should finish in second this frame with a ridiculously strong $40 million.  That would give it $100 million after just ten days.  Wow.

3. 2012 – $7 million

Also held up pretty well this weekend.  A small weekend decline to $19 million seems in order. While this hasn’t been magnificently huge in the US, worldwide, this has already earned $476 million.

4. Old Dogs – $6.85 million

This has a good shot at surpassing 2012 for the #3 spot.  Family films tend to blow up on Saturday and Sunday, so I’m expecting $22 million over the weekend.

5. A Christmas Carol – $6.6 million

About time this started to show some signs of life!  Now that people are actually in the mood for a Christmas movie, this should recover a bit after its lackluster start.  A $18 million weekend will help A Christmas Carol quite a bit, as will the small December declines, but in my opinion, it’s just too little too late for the absurdly expensive feature.

6. Ninja Assassin – $5.7 million

This is definitely a better result than I was thinking.  Ninja Assassin already earned $7.9 million on Wednesday and Thursday, so a likely $15 million weekend will bring its 5-day total to about $23 million.

7. Planet 51 – $4.1 million

Actually improved upon its last Friday, but I’m sorry: I just didn’t care last weekend, and I don’t care this weekend.

8. Fantastic Mr. Fox – $3 million

The Wes Anderson animated film isn’t going to break any records, and I’m not about to call it a huge hit, but it might actually earn double digits this weekend.  $8.5 million seems to be in the cards for the inventive picture.

9. Precious – $2.8 million

Maybe this is finally showing some signs of losing a bit of steam.  Once award nominations start up (and the Precious-themed Oprah episode airs) this should pick back up.  Still, $7.5 million ain’t bad at all for a film in 663 theaters.

10. The Men Who Stare At Goats – $630,000

Told’ya this would be a front-loaded liberal fanboy movie!  It started off okay with $12.7 million, but it’s barely going to pass $30 million total this weekend.

11. The Road – $560,000

People who love this film will gloat about its “amazing” box office, saying that it’s only in 111 theaters and earned $560,000 this weekend. But if people were hoping this would break out and be a big hit, then I’m sorry to say that they’re in for some bad news.  The Road is going to need a lot more than a $1.6 million weekend and a $16,000 per theater average to merit much expansion and promotion, and that looks to be where the grim film is headed.

12. The Princess And The Frog – $277,000

This is an astounding figure.  Out of 2 theaters, The Princess And The Frog captured all that money.  While this does bode very well for the film’s future, we have to keep in mind that people were paying about $30 for each ticket…

Weekend Fix: With New Moon’s $142.8M Debut, Vampires Are One Step Closer To World Domination

November 22, 2009

Weekend Preview: Despite Vampires, New Moon’s Debut Won’t Suck

November 20, 2009

We’re quickly approaching the ever-lucrative Thanksgiving weekend, and yet, it looks like this weekend might prove to be even bigger than the next!  Thanks to the debut of The Twilight Saga: New Moon, legions of vampire-obsessed women are going to flood theaters over the next few days, desperately hoping to see their beloved Bella, Edward, and Jacob.  Forget the poor reviews; this movie has a built-in audience like none other.  Also opening this weekend is the sports drama, The Blind Side, which stars Sandra Bullock, Kathy Bates, and Tim McGraw, and Planet 51, a computer animated kids movie about aliens. In the above video, I’ll go over my box office predictions for these new openers, and below, you can check out my full box office predictions, including my thoughts on holdovers like 2012, A Christmas Carol, and Precious, which is expanding even further this weekend.  Overall, there’s a lot of depth at the box office right now, and we’re looking at a possible $200 million weekend from the Top 10!  Exciting stuff for a box office junkie like me!

2012

The apocalyptic thriller started off very well with $65.6 million last weekend, but with an even bigger blockbuster bursting onto the scene, a 60% drop seems likely.  I’d say $26 million seems about right.

A Christmas Carol

After dropping just 25% last weekend, another small drop should be in store for Disney’s 3D Robert Zemeckis film as we approach Christmas… you know, the holiday that this is actually about.  Perhaps it will fall harder, as New Moon is going to take away a large chunk of everyone’s office, but I’m going with a modest 30% drop to $16.1 million

Precious
Riding the wave of early awards buzz, Precious earned an amazing $6 million out of just 174 theaters last weekend, coming in third place.  Therefore, Lionsgate is speeding up Precious‘ release, expanding it into 629 theaters this week.  An $11.2 million weekend might result.

Box Office Predictions for November 20-22, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 The Twilight Saga: New Moon 4,024 $113 million
2 2012 3,408 $26 million
3 A Christmas Carol 3,578 $16.1 million
4 The Blind Side 3,110 $16 million
5 Planet 51 3,035 $12 million
6 Precious 629 $11.2 million
7 The Men Who Stare At Goats 2,056 $2.8 million
8 Couples Retreat 1,712 $2.7 million
9 This Is It 1,640 $2.3 million
10 Law Abiding Citizen 1,327 $2.2 million

Weekend Preview: 2012 Hopes To To Blow Up (Literally And Figuratively)

November 13, 2009

Welcome to the Weekend Preview!  This week, there’s just two new wide releases, and only one of them is a true wide release.  Sony’s 2012 should be huge, as should Precious (due to its expansion) while Focus’ Pirate Radio should be small.  How big and how small?  Watch the video above to find out, and then check out my full predictions below, which include last week’s openers: A Christmas Carol, which should see a small drop this weekend and every weekend until Christmas, The Men Who Stare At Goats, and The Fourth Kind.  I’m guessing The Box will fall out of the top ten.  Check them out:

Box Office Predictions for November 13-15, 2009
Rank Movie Theaters Predicted Gross
1 2012 3,404 $57 million
2 A Christmas Carol 3,683 $19 million
3 This Is It 3,037 $8 million
4 The Men Who Stare At Goats 2,453 $6.5 million
5 The Fourth Kind 2,530 $5.5 million
6 Precious 174 $5 million
7 Paranormal Activity 2,712 $4.2 million
8 Couples Retreat 2,507 $4.1 million
9 Pirate Radio 882 $4 million
10 Law Abiding Citizen 2,071 $3.8 million

Weekend Fix: Christmas Comes Early This Year! Or Does It?

November 9, 2009

Friday Estimates: A Christmas Carol Captures $9 Million Worth Of Christmas Cheer

November 7, 2009

Friday box office estimates are starting to roll in, and while we have a clear winner in Disney’s A Christmas Carol, the race for second place will be tight between The Men Who Stare At Goats, The Fourth Kind, and This Is It.  Here are Friday’s numbers, along with my early impressions on these results:

A Christmas Carol
With $9 million on Friday, a $30 million weekend seems likely, which is well below my $40 million prediction, yet in line with the starts of other Robert Zemeckis motion-capture films like The Polar Express ($23.3 million) and Beowulf ($27.5 million).  I’m kind of frustrated in myself.  I wanted to predict this closer to $30 million, but I just believed so much in Disney’s marketing prowess, and I upped my prediction considerably.  As I’ve said before, A Christmas Carol could have opened much higher if it had debuted two weeks from now, but the silver lining for Disney is that this Jim Carrey Christmas tale will plug along steadily for the next seven weeks, as the actual holiday of Christmas grows near.  If it’s lucky, A Christmas Carol will earn back its $175 million budget, but that will be a tough task.  Can’t wait to find out if it does!

The Fourth Kind

The alien abduction (non) thriller began with $5 million on Friday, which isn’t too shabby.  But between the terrible reviews, the crowded marketplace, and the way that fanboys rush out on opening day to see this sort of film, I wouldn’t expect much for the rest of the weekend.  By Sunday, The Fourth Kind will probably have abducted about $13 million out of American pockets.

The Men Who Stare At Goats

The George Clooney war satire earned $4.6 million on Friday.  I had this pegged at earning $2-3 million on Friday, since cynical movies about war don’t tend to sit well with audiences, but I guess the star power and the ambiguous ads were enough to coax people into the theaters.  Back in 2005, Jarhead started with $10.5 million on its way to a $27.7 million weekend, giving it an opening weekend multiplier of 2.6.   I would expect a similar degree of liberal frontloadedness for Goats, and a $12 million weekend seems likely.

The Box

I wanted this to really exceed my expectations, but unfortunately, it just met them.  With $2.85 million on Friday, the psychological suspense movie starring Cameron Diaz and James Marsden seems destined for the Wal Mart bargain rack in a few years.  Give the thriller $8 million for the frame.

This Is It and Paranormal Activity

The Michael Jackson documentary, This Is It, held up well on Friday, earning another $4.2 million.  I’m seeing a solid $13 million over three days for this one, good for second place at the box office.  Meanwhile, the freight train that is Paranormal Activity is officially coming to a stop.  The horror film was down 53% from last Friday to just $2.85 million.  An $8.2 million weekend should result.

Friday Estimates for November 6, 2009
1. A Christmas Carol – $9 million
2. The Fourth Kind – $5 million
3. The Men Who Stare At Goats – $4.6 million
4. This Is It – $4.2 million
5. The Box – $2.85 million
6. Paranormal Activity – $2.85 million
7. Couples Retreat – $2 million
8. Law Abiding Citizen – $1.8 million
9. Where The Wild Things Are – $1.2 million
10. Saw VI – $700,000
11. Precious – $585,000