Friday Estimates: New Moon Smashes Records With $72.7 Million! The Blind Side Grabs $10.9 Million!

UPDATE (Saturday AM):  Early Friday estimates have been released, and New Moon has shattered the record for highest single day box office!   It earned $72.7 million on Friday, enough to dethrone The Dark Knight‘s $67 million Friday in July 2008 as the best box office day in history.  It’s difficult for me to articulate to you all how incredible this result is.  Just think- Twilight earned about $70 million in three days last year, while New Moon earned $72.7 million in just one!  Crazy. Where does the vampire drama go from here?  Well, let’s figure that out, and while we’re at it, let’s look at the rest of the box office as well.

New Moon is going to fall quickly.  With an opening day that huge, it is simply inevitable.  Last year,  Twilight fell a big 41% on Saturday and 42% on Sunday, and the drops this time around might be even steeper.  Still, even if it falls 50% for the next few days, that will give New Moon a $126 million weekend.  I personally think it will be a little bit higher, due to obsessed fans’ repeat viewings.  Expect a $130 million weekend, and if New Moon does better, it could take the third place spot for best opening weekend from Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest, which earned $135.6 million in July 2006.

But believe it or not, there were actually other movies at the box office this weekend, and a few actually did very well!  In second place is Warner Brothers’ feel-good football movie, The Blind Side, which (to my delight) performed well beyond expectations, starting with $10.9 million on Friday.  Offering a strong choice for males not wanting to watch the emo vampire parade, this is counter-programming at its best. Bravo, Warner Brothers!  I didn’t expect this to open this big, but I did expect it to stick around throughout the holidays.  Now, though, its box office run will enjoy a great opening and strong legs!  Expect an opening weekend of $33 million for The Blind Side, and like I said in my video on Friday, this will break $100 million.

As far as the rest of the box office goes, 2012 fell 68% from last Friday, earning $8.1 million.  Probably benefiting from strong male attendance as well, a $28 million weekend is in store.  Precious, meanwhile, added another $3.5 million to its amazing cume, and it should find $11 million over the rest of the weekend.  Planet 51 found $3 million, while b>A Christmas Carol found $3.5 million yesterday. This should result in grosses of $11 million and $15 million, respectively.

Early Friday Estimates for November 20, 2009
1. The Twilight Saga: New Moon – $72.7 million
2. The Blind Side – $10.9 million
3. 2012 – $8.1 million
4. Precious – $3.5 million
5. A Christmas Carol – $3.5 million
6. Planet 51 – $3 million
7. The Men Who Stare At Goats – $860,000
8. Couples Retreat – $650,000
9. The Fourth Kind – $620,000
10. Paranormal Activity – $500,000

ORIGINAL POST (Friday AM): Based on some Summit’s official announcement, it looks like The Twilight Saga: New Moon earned an overwhelmingly huge $26.67 million from it’s 12:01 showings across the country. For some perspective, Harry Potter And The Half Blood Prince earned $22.8 million from midnight showings and  The Dark Knight earned $18.4 million.  This smashes both of those figures easily.  Let’s look at what that might mean for the rest of the weekend.

Harry Potter And The Half Blood Prince earned $58.1 million on its first days on the box office, and as I mentioned above, $22.8 million of that came from midnight showings.  That means 39.2% of the gross came from midnight showings.  If we assume a similar percentage for New Moon, it’s looking at a $68 million Friday.  However, Harry Potter came out on a Wednesday, so this figure might not be the best comparision.  Let’s look to The Dark Knight, instead…

The Dark Knight earned $67.2 million on its opening Friday, with $18.4 million coming from midnight showings.  That means 27.4% of the Friday gross came from midnight box office.  Applying these numbers to New Moon, it appears that the teen vampire drama might see a shockingly gigantic $97.4 million this Friday, but that’s just ludicrous.

In all reality, it will probably finish somewhere in between this range, and it’s looking very likely that New Moon will earn more on its opening Friday than Twilight earned in its entire first weekend.  Right now, I think $75 million is a safe estimate for Friday, and major front-loadedness is guaranteed for the picture.  The Dark Knight had a 2.35 weekend multiplier, and New Moon‘s will be even steeper.  Still, we may be looking at a $150 million weekend!  We’ll have to stay tuned to find out.  Regardless, all I know is that New Moon is taking over the world. You may as well just pull your collar down, lead your head back, and submit to the vampires…


42 Responses to “Friday Estimates: New Moon Smashes Records With $72.7 Million! The Blind Side Grabs $10.9 Million!”

  1. Grady Smith Says:

    This post is getting a lot of traffic…. I refuse to believe that nobody has any reactions to this news. What are you all thinking?

  2. Reed Arnold Says:

    We're all too busy crying, Grady.

  3. Anonymous Says:

    I agree with you.

  4. Diane Cantor Says:

    This movie blows. Basically the only people who watch this garbage are losers who have to live vicariously as a vampire because they hate their lives so much. Vampires are dumb, so is this movie, and everyone says it sucks except for the hardcore fans who would just as likely give raving reviews if they filmed a turd for 1.5 hours and called it “Twilight: Turdfest Extravaganza”. Also on a side note, I'll sell $85mm Friday open and $150mm weekend numbers until my head caves in. You guys are so blinded by your unhealthy obsession for the undead that your numbers are awfully skewed. Credit to the studio though, they figured out a great way to turn chunky turds into gold.

  5. Reed Arnold Says:

    I think Diane hates it more than I do.

  6. Graham Says:

    Tell us how you really feel, Diane.

  7. scissorhands Says:

    OMG… it's impossible…I still hope that it will crash and burn during saturday and sunday…

  8. Diane Cantor Says:

    Another point here. You can't compare the midnight showing to total Friday from Dark Knight to this. You're implying that it will make 97 million total for Friday?! It might not even make that much the whole weekend. That's just basic movie revenue facts. Then add in the fact that the only people that will go see this movie are teenage girls and people that love hot stinking piles of turd for lunch, it's going to add up to a big weekend but not close to what you're assuming it makes.

  9. Vampire Killer Says:

    Your math is a joke. $97 million on Friday?? I'd take out a loan to bet as much as anyone is willing to bet against me on that. Any takers??

  10. Grady Smith Says:

    You should read the whole article, Diane! I never said it would make $97 million. I said that's what it would earn if we applied the same percentages to it as Dark Knight's. I predicted a $75 million Friday. But by all means, feel free to rant on the blog! I think its hilarious!

  11. Anonymous Says:

    I don't think it can make as much money as Harry Potter cause it only appeals to half the audience of HP. No sensible male will go see this movie unless it is a 12 year old boy dragged by his obsessed girlfriend and he's hoping he might get to hold her hand when they both reach for the popcorn. How did the first movie stack up to Harry Potter?I don't have a profile but this is stine

  12. Anonymous Says:

    The poster also has a striking resemblance to the three wolf moon t-shirt-stine

  13. Anonymous Says:

    PS anyone else think Diane is a little too offended by this movie? Seems a little suspicious. Why does she harbor such hostility towards Vampires? And Turds? I think she's a constipated werewolf.

  14. Diane Cantor Says:

    I agree with everything stine says except for maybe the part about holding hands. Any girl dragging her teenage boyfriend there should at least give him a handy and let him cop a feel. Otherwise it's just not worth it.

  15. Anonymous Says:

    Diane, Would you rather watch New Moon or give a handy to a hot stinking pile of turd

  16. Diane Cantor Says:

    Well I think it's fairly clear that I'd rather give a turd a handy. About 99% of Americans also share that viewpoint

  17. Anonymous Says:

    OK, I'll take the under on $75 million for Friday, how much do you want to wager?

  18. Anonymous Says:

    Man, Summit is going to have a lot of money on their hands. Wonder if they will decide to try somthing new with that extra money. In the last two days I've seen two new trailers for a movie released by Summit, both were love/romance stories. Anyway what do you think about this……

  19. Anonymous Says:

    So you want to make the bet? Twilight does not compare to Dark Knight, and they put their midnight showing tickets up for sale 4 months in advance. The only way this movie makes over $100 million for the weekend is if everyone who went at midnight goes and sees it 2 more times on Saturday and Sunday. The movie is terrible, nobody who was on the fence about it will go and see it when the read the reviews. It only makes money because teenage girls love to see teenage hollywood boys with their shirts off

  20. Rohan B Says:

    UGH! I hate that it takes something like TWILIGHT garbage to gather a discussion on this site. Grady has so many more posts guys!!! This is unfortunate.That being said, if this movie beats The Dark Knight opening weekend then God help us all. I cannot believe the immense support and hysteria for such a shit superficial film. I for one will be watching Precious this weekend, which I'm sure is a much superior film.This Twilight hype disgusts me. This is proof society is getting stupider.

  21. Reed Arnold Says:

    Comment record?

  22. Ted Jordan Says:


  23. Grady Smith Says:

    Yes, this has officially passed my Star Trek Friday Estimates as the most commented article on the site, which is ironic, as I whipped this up in a few minutes, and I spend hours on the videos! Oh well- who am I to question the powers of Edward, Bella, and Jacob?

  24. clarewbrown Says:

    lol Grady, Bravo on this post! I hate Twilight… I lol'ed at that poster. That poor little Jacob Black is the man in the moon (perhaps a weak metaphor to symbolize werewolves howling at the moon? Whatever it is.. it's that terrible, terrible wig that gets me every time)I will be seeing this flick, I gotta blog about it… and the dangerously skewed message this movie (and the books) send to girls with a twisted sense of what romance is.

  25. Anonymous Says:

    I think it's hilarious that people think they can stop New Moon from being successful by sheer force of will. People go see trash movies all the time, this is just a MUCH easier target so people vehemently hate it. It's almost as if Twilight got too popular so no one will admit to liking it anymore (thereby joining the masses) when, in truth, this movie will be immensely successful, despite anything having to do with the actual movie.

  26. Anonymous Says:

    As for the comment regarding moviegoers who saw it at midnight would have to see it twice more over the weekend to make the insane numbers being talked about, guess what? That is exactly what is happening as we speak. My kids and everyone else I pretty much know has done just that. Last night and twice today. You dont have to like the movie or the franchise but you cant just pretend the hysteria is not a money maker. What you or I may not find to be an advanced or smart screenplay, the masses are stomping to see, money talks so I guess the haters should stop talking.

  27. Raven Says:

    What I think is hilarious is twilight haters waste their time on bashing Twilight.Twilight movies are not attended by only teens but by women & men of all ages.It's fine if you don't like Twilight as everyone is entitled to their opinions, but just because it does well, doesn't mean the fans of Twilight need to be bashed.Personally, if something annoys me, just for example, Miley Cyrus, I don't bother reading or looking at the article.Also, personally, I would rather use my time more constructively.To those who like Twilight, let's hope we continue to break box office figures & to those that don't like Twilight, there are certainly other films to watch.Happy viewing.

  28. Anonymous Says:

    My point exactly. The haters are sitting at home watching their cable boxes and predicting a "steep drop" in ticket sales etc.. well as I said before my kids and everyone else have seen it three times since midnight last night and they just bought their tickets online for Saturday night. That's not a prediction, that's a fact that translates into HUGE box office numbers beyond what anyone expects including the producers of the film. As for the comments regarding lack of appeal to the male fan base, newsflash… who needs them, look at Taylor Swift, Miley Cyrus and the Jonas Brothers and don't pretend you don't know who they are. And I am sure there are some of you howling that I am allowing my kids to waste money on numerous tickets for the same movie, well at least they are sitting in their seats minding there business and contributing to the economy.

  29. Reed Arnold Says:

    …Why? I can't imagine liking a movie so much I watched it four times in a month, much less a weekend. It…can't…be…that…good. And, in fact, it isn't. It's garbage. No other pop culture phenomenon has such devotion, and very few are less deserving.

  30. Anonymous Says:

    Deserving or not, the masses have spoken and when Summit Entertainment releases the total opening day numbers this morning, it will silence all the critics. Everyone has the right to like what they like and it appears the New Moon fans have spoken loud and clear. Maybe, just maybe it is not as bad as you think it is. $100 million dollars is quite a bit of money, that's a whole lot of people with bad taste according some posts on this blog. It's not an Oscar contender and its not acting genius although very well acted in parts, but it was never trying to be a Gone With the Wind or Sophie's Choice, it's a teen vampire love story for crying out loud people. If you look at it for what it is, then you have no choice but to appreciate the devotion it has secured by American audiences. FYI, just because it is not targeting predominantly male audiences, does not make it garbage. Let's not forget that woman out spend men on EVERYTHING by at least 2 to 1 and Summit Entertainment will take that all the way to the bank.

  31. scissorhands Says:

    It's impossible!Nikki Finche reported an estimated 80M for Friday, that could possible transform to a huge 135 million!Even more surprising is The Blind Side that made 11.8M; that could be a 35M weekend according to Finche.And 2012 drop only 63% headed to 30M.This could be one of the hottest box office in Hollywood history.

  32. Rohan B Says:

    the problem with an enormous opening like this is that Hollywood believes it can churn out nonsense and still reap the benefits. (Transformers 2 anyone?).

  33. Anonymous Says:

    Maybe if people who hate the story would OPEN their minds they might find a good story. But instead, haters live in their own little box. Sad. Go Twilight! Go Team Edward!

  34. Rohan B Says:

    Regardless of the fact if the story is "good", the movie is shit. It's been established…weak acting, mediocre special effects, cliched dialogue, scattered direction. The world of cinema died a little in 2009 when Michael Bay, Hasbro, Hannah Montana and Jacob Black ruled the box office.

  35. Reed Arnold Says:

    I get that some people are entertained by it. I just can't fathom how people have already seen it multiple times.

  36. Grady Smith Says:

    I know everyone here in the comments is all riled up about New Moon, but is anyone else surprised at how well The Blind Side did? I'm so happy with that result! Sandra Bullock can add this to her list of proof that she is a legitimate box office draw.

  37. Anonymous Says:

    I just don't understand how some people can continue to discredit the movie, the story, the direction, the acting and blah, blah, blah. Last night about $80million dollars worth of fans went out and saw this movie, some only once and some twice or more. There has to be something about this story and the actors that is drawing these crowds. The facts don't lie. Biggest opening day ever in box office history does not translate to crap it translates into the fact that the even the haters have dusted off their wallets and slipped into the late show to see this flick.

  38. scissorhands Says:

    Congrats to Grady for the faith in The Blind Side.I wouldn't have bet a cent on it.WB is having another extraordinary year; and still has Ninja Assassins and Sherlock Homes…

  39. Anonymous Says:

    i agree grady… i love bullock, and i will go see the movie. i'm glad it isn't getting glossed over. but whether or not i see it in theatres is a different story.i admittedly like the twilight books, so i will probably go see it in theaters. -b

  40. Anonymous Says:

    I think i'll be interesting to see if New Moon really does drop off over the weekend in the way that the first one did.Of course it will, like you said, with such a massive start, but given the legs that Twilight itself showed after it's big start I wonder where it will finish up.$250 million domestic would seem possible if not a bit more than that.Only thing for sure is that while the rest of us may be crying about these numbers, Summit won't be and will now be salivating over Eclipse next summer!But good to see Sandra Bullock hold up well against such a draw.

  41. Harry Says:

    I think the blindside's success can be attributed not only to Sandra Bullock, but to what I believe is cited as the "wildcat factor" amongst scholars. The great school scenes throughout the movie really accentuate and facilitate the dramatic plot developments.

  42. Anonymous Says:

    twilight is gay

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